Manchester United vs Chelsea Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

manchester-united-v-chelsea-logo manchester-united-v-chelsea-logo
TournamentPremier League
Timetable20:15 GMT, 6th Dec 23
PredictionChelsea to Win!
BookmakerTonyBet Sports
Chelsea to Win!
The best odds
Tony​Bet Sports
Odds : 2.38
Bet €100 and win €238 if Chelsea win.
Odds : 2.35
Bet €100 and win €235 if Chelsea win.
Legend Play Sports
Odds : 2.30
Bet €100 and win €230 if Chelsea win.
manchester-united-v-chelsea-logo manchester-united-v-chelsea-logo

Manchester United’s were simply awful in their 1-0 defeat to Newcastle at the weekend, lacking fight, intensity and any kind of press resistance as they were sunk by Anthony Gordon’s second half goal. However, Chelsea may be the only Premier League side who can match the Red Devils when it comes to inconsistency, with their impressive 3-2 win over Brighton following their own 4-1 thrashing at St. James Park the previous weekend. So, this is one of the most difficult contests to call in the whole of the EPL season, but who do I think will win and how are the best betting sites pricing all potential match outcomes?

🏆 Manchester United vs Chelsea EPL Prediction

Chelsea are winless in six outings against Man United, after a 3-1 win in the 2019/20 FA Cup semi-final. They haven’t beaten United in the Premier League since November 5th, 2017 (when Alvaro Morata headed home a second-half winner), although it should be noted that five of the last six encounters have ended in draws.

While United did win this fixture 4-1 in May towards the end of last season, Erik ten Hag’s injury hit side is a shadow of the one that took to the Old Trafford pitch that night. Conversely, Chelsea’s performances have largely improved under the guidance of Mauricio Pochettino, with the Blues having averaged more possession per 90 this season (57.2% vs 53.1%) and produced a much higher xG value than United (27.8 vs 20.2).

However, both teams have dramatically underperformed their respective xG tallies in 2023/24, with Chelsea alone having missed 27 big chances during the season (only Brentford, Liverpool and Aston Villa have squandered more). The only good news for the Blues is that they’ve scored 12 times in their previous four Premier League matches, and they’ll fancy their chances of threatening a depleted and at times overran United defensive line.

Despite the Red Devils’ relative lack of goals, Chelsea have defensive frailties of their own, and I definitely expect both sides to score at Old Trafford. However, Chelsea appear to be more organised and dynamic than United at present and their form is slightly better on the road, so I’m tipping them to win at OT in the Premier League for the first time since May 2013.

My Prediction: 🏆 Man United 1 – 2 Chelsea ⚽

💯 Manchester United vs Chelsea EPL Match Odds

Usually, even contests such as this are ideal from the perspective of matched betting, as you can lay a back wager against one of the teams to cover all potential outcomes. However, there are plenty of markets that you can target in addition to the match winner, such as BTTS and the over/under on the total number of goals scored.

🏅 Manchester United vs Chelsea: Match Winner

If you glance at the latest match winner odds from Betinireland’s recommended bookmaker reviews, Chelsea are the narrow favourites. In fact, their average price of 2.38 implies a 42.01% probability of a Blues win, while you can access odds of 2.84 on United triumphing in front of their own fans (affording them a 35.21% chance of prevailing).

Man United to Win2.802.882.842.882.84
Chelsea to Win2.252.302.352.382.30

⚽ Manchester United vs Chelsea: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have scored in eight of Chelsea’s 14 Premier League matches this season, including the last four. The Blues have failed to score in four of these games and kept three clean sheets. As for United, both sides have only found the back of the net in five of their 14 EPL encounters, with ten Hag’s men drawing four blanks and managing to keep five clean sheets.


🥅 Manchester United vs Chelsea: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Between them, Manchester United and Chelsea have contested 38 matches in all competitions this season. These encounters have yielded 118 goals (61 scored and 57 conceded) at a rate of 3.10 per game, so there’s obvious value in backing there to be over 2.5 goals scored in the contest.

Over 2.5 Goals1.601.651.611.621.62
Under 2.5 Goals2.

✔️ Manchester United vs Chelsea - Betting Tips

Whether you want to wager your hard-earned bankroll or free bets to wager on the match between Manchester United and Chelsea, it’s important that you identify and create value in the published odds. Here are some betting tips to help you on your way!

  • Tip 1: Back Chelsea to Win: Given the relatively close nature of this game, there’s genuine value in backing Chelsea to win outright at a price of 2.38 with TonyBet. After all, the Blues have earned more points on the road (10) than they have at home (nine) this season, while United have already lost five games at Old Trafford in all competitions. Chelsea also look better organized and less open than United at present.
  • Tip 2: Back Chelsea to Win and Both Sides to Score: You may also want to consider backing the Blues to win and both teams to score at an enhanced price of 4.00 with Betway. While United and Chelsea have drawn eight blanks collectively this season, both teams are defensively vulnerable and have been more potent in front of goal of late. In United’s 4-1 win over Chelsea in May, the respective xG values for both sides was 4.98 and 1.49, in what proved to be an incredibly open contest.
  • Tip 3: Back United to Score First: While United and Chelsea have only scored twice in the opening 15 minutes of their EPL games this season, the Blues have managed to fall behind in nine of their 14 matches overall. Given this and the fact that United are likely to start fast in response to their disappointing showing at St James Park, I think there’s value in backing ten Hag’s side to score first at a price of 2.20 with LegendPlay Sports.

1️⃣ Man United Update

United’s 1-0 defeat at Newcastle ended their run of five wins in six EPL outings, while the side has now won six (and lost four) of their previous 10 league matches and earned 18 points from the previous 30 available. This reflects United’s incredible and ongoing inconsistency, while the most notable takeaways from their defeat in the northeast was their lack of intensity and the failure of their forwards to track back. This was also the Red Devils’ 10th defeat of the season in all competitions, while they have won just once in their last six outings against rival members of the so-called “big six” (although this was against Chelsea in May).

Last 5 Games
Newcastle 1
Man United 0
Premier League
Galatasaray 3
Man United 3
Champions League
Everton 0
Man United 3
Premier League
Man United 1
Luton Town 0
Premier League
FC Copenhagen 4
Man United 3
Champions League

United will remain without centre back Lisandro Martinez (foot injury) for the visit of Chelsea, while veteran Jonny Evans (hamstring) and Tyrell Malacia (knee) are also unavailable. Midfield pair Casemiro (knock) and Cristian Eriksen (knee) have also been ruled out until December at the earliest, while Mason Mount is sidelined too. Amad Diallo continues his recovery from a knee injury, while Jadon Sancho remains unavailable for disciplinary reasons.

Lisandro Martinez Foot Injury
Jonny Evans Hamstring Injury
Tyrell Malacia Knee Injury
Casemiro Knock
Cristian Eriksen Knee Injury
Mason Mount Unknown Injury
Amad Diallo Knee Injury

2️⃣ Chelsea Update

The Blues have certainly improved their goalscoring output of late, plundering 12 goals in their last four EPL matches after hitting just eight in their previous seven games. However, the side only accrued seven points out of 12 during this sequence, as they also shipped four against Manchester City and then Newcastle. So, Pochettino’s men are also inconsistent and defensively vulnerable, although their performances have arguably been more solid and better than Manchester United’s in 2023/24. They’ve also suffered from an inability to take their chances, having underperformed their Premier League xG tally by -3.8 goals so far.

Last 5 Games
Chelsea 3
Brighton 2
Premier League
Newcastle 4
Chelsea 1
Premier League
Chelsea 4
Man City 4
Premier League
Tottenham 1
Chelsea 4
Premier League
Chelsea 2
Blackburn 0

Connor Gallagher’s red card against Brighton means that he’ll serve a one-game suspension at Old Trafford, as he joins Wesely Fofana (cruciate ligament tear), Trevoh Chalobah (thigh) and Ben Chilwell (hamstring) on the sidelines. Carney Chukwuemeka also misses out with a knee injury. However, both Christopher Nkunku and Romeo Lavia are now available and nearing full fitness, and could at least make Chelsea’s bench for the first time after their summer moves.

Connor Gallagher Suspended
Wesely Fofana Cruciate Ligament Tear
Trevoh Chalobah Thigh Injury
Ben Chilwell Hamstring Injury
Carney Chukwuemeka Knee Injury

👕 Man United v Chelsea - Potential Lineups

Pos. Man United
Goalkeeper A. Onana R. Sanchez Goalkeeper
Right Back D. Dalot R. James Right Back
Centre Back H. Maguire A. Disasi Centre Back
Centre Back V. Lindelof T. Silva Centre Back
Left Back L. Shaw L. Colwill Left Back
Midfielder K. Mainoo E. Fernandez Midfielder
Midfielder S. McTominay M. Caicedo Midfielder
Midfielder B. Fernandes C. Palmer Midfielder
Wide Forward Anthony R. Sterling Wide Forward
Striker R. Hojlund N. Jackson Striker
Wide Forward A. Garnacho M. Mudryk Wide Forward

Chelsea to Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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