Luton vs Liverpool Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips
| Timetable | 16:30 GMT 5th Nov 23 |
| Prediction | Liverpool To Win! |
| Odds | Liverpool to Win @1.25 |
| Bookmaker | TonyBet Sports |
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While newly promoted Luton may be limited in many facets, they’ve been combative and relatively well-organised in every single Premier League that they’ve contested so far. However, they’ll face a huge challenge when they entertain Jurgen Klopp’s rejuvenated Liverpool side at Kenilworth Road on Sunday, November 5th, with the Reds having lost just one of their previous 21 EPL games since April 1st and currently sitting just three points off the top of the table. Unsurprisingly, the football betting odds make Liverpool the overwhelming favourites to beat the Hatters, but will they justify this status or can Luton record arguably their biggest top-flight home win since a 1-0 victory over Arsenal on December 26th, 1991?
🏆 Luton vs Liverpool
Liverpool and Luton have played each other 38 times since their first meeting in the FA Cup on January 31st, 1920, with the Reds prevailing on 18 occasions. Luton have won just seven times in this historic head-to-head, with their last victory coming via a superb 3-1 triumph at Kenilworth Road way back in February 1991.
The latest performance statistics also highlight Liverpool’s current dominance, with the Reds averaging 57.0% possession this season compared to 37.1% for Luton. Liverpool have also had 7314 touches of the ball (including 1794 in the attacking third), while no EPL side have touched the ball less than Luton in 2023/24. However, the Hatters’ tally of 1343 touches in the final third is the 14th highest in the league and accounts for 28.4% of their total touches, highlighting Luton’s penchant for being direct and looking to bypass the midfield.
This may afford Rob Edwards’ team some joy against Liverpool’s high defensive line, but the Reds have also completed 561 ball recoveries this season and will look to pen Luton into their defensive third for much of the game. Given that Liverpool have also scored 21 EPL goals from an xG value of 22.3 and have arguably the most efficient attack in the league, it’s hard to look past an ultimately comfortable win for the away side.
My Prediction: 🏆 Luton 1-3 Liverpool ⚽
💯 Luton vs Liverpool Match Odds
Our recommended betting sites have produced a diverse range of ante post odds pertaining to Luton vs Liverpool, with the majority of win markets favouring the Reds. However, you can also bet on both sides to score (or not) and back the over/under for the total number of goals scored in the game. Let’s take a closer look at these markets and how they’re being priced.
🏅 Luton vs Liverpool: Match Winner
Liverpool are priced as low as 1.22 to beat Luton, which implies a probability of 81.96% that Jurgen Klopp’s side will prevail at Kenilworth Road. But is there value in backing the Reds, and what odds can you get on a win for the Hatters?
| Team |  |  |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luton to Win | 11.00 | 10.00 | 9.90 | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| Liverpool to Win | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.20 | 1.25 | 1.23 |
| Draw | 6.00 | 6.50 | 6.40 | 6.50 | 6.00 |
⚽ Luton vs Liverpool: Both Teams To Score
Despite often being overmatched this season, Luton have scored in seven of their 10 EPL games and proved to be particularly effective both in transition and from set pieces. As for the Reds, they’ve scored in all of their 14 matches in all competitions this season, while the side has only kept four clean sheets in total and just three in the Premier League.
| Yes/No | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.67 | 1.78 | 1.76 | 1.73 | 1.75 |
| No | 2.05 | 2.00 | 1.91 | 2.00 | 1.95 |
🥅 Luton vs Liverpool: Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Between them, these two sides have contested 23 matches in all competitions this season, while these encounters have yielded an impressive 83 goals at a rate of 3.60 per game. The Reds alone have scored 36 goals in their 14 encounters at 2.57 per game, so it’s little wonder the bookies are heavily favouring there to be more than 2.5 goals scored at Kenilworth Road.
| Under/Over | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 1.33 | 1.38 | 1.33 | 1.36 | 1.36 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 3.00 | 2.90 | 2.96 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
✔️ Luton vs Liverpool - Betting Tips
As you can see, some of these betting markets boast more obvious value than others, so it’s important that you wager strategically and selectively on this Premier League game. Here are some betting tips to help you get the most from your bankroll!
- Tip 1: Back Liverpool to Win With More Than 3.5 Goals Scored: Unless you wager with a huge stake, there’s little value to be found in backing Liverpool to win outright at Kenilworth Road. However, you can create additional value by placing a combination bet that simultaneously backs the Reds to win with more than 3.5 goals scored in the game. This is available at the competitive price of 2.38 with LegendPlay, while it reflects Liverpool’s undeniable attacking efficiency and the occasional defensive vulnerability that they have in transition.
- Tip 2: Back Luton to Score First: If you fancy a higher risk wager or simply have a free bet that you’d like to deploy, you could also consider backing the Hatters to score first in this game. After all, the Reds have gone behind in five of their 10 EPL games this season (and seven in 14 overall), while they’ve only kept four clean sheets in total. So, while Luton typically don’t score early on in games, their threat on the break and home advantage makes this a fascinating wager at a price of 4.00 with TonyBet.
- Tip 3: Back Liverpool with a Handicap of -1.75 Goals: If you really want to explore match winner markets here, you may want to consider backing Liverpool to win with a handicap of -1.75 goals. This is currently priced at 1.75 with Dachbet-Sports, while it reflects the Reds’ superiority without overly compromising your chances of winning. While you may be tempted to apply a larger handicap at even higher odds, just remember that Luton have only lost by two goals or more once in eight EPL matches since a 3-0 defeat at Chelsea on August 26th.
1️⃣ Luton Update
The Hatters have won just one of their 10 games since returning to the English top flight, taking five points from 30 overall and scoring nine goals (while conceding 20). However, they’ve been increasingly competitive after losing their first two Premier Leage games by three clear goals to Brighton (4-1) and Chelsea (3-0), taking five points from their next seven matches and avoiding defeat by any more than a single goal. While this record was tarnished slightly by a 3-1 defeat at Aston Villa last time out, the Hatters remain highly committed and organised while they’ve won 56.0% of their tackles in 2023/24 (second only to Arsenal).
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa 3 Luton 1 | 29.10.23 Premier League |
| Nottingham Forest 2 Luton 2 | 21.10.23 Premier League |
| Luton 0 Tottenham 1 | 07.10.23 Premier League |
| Luton 1 Burnley 2 | 03.10.23 Premier League |
| Everton 1 Luton 2 | 30.09.23 Premier League |
The really good news for Luton that they have a virtually fully fit squad to choose from ahead of the visit of Liverpool. In fact, the only slight doubt is centre back Gabriel Osho, but while the 25-year-old has previously missed 12 games with a knee injury, he may be fit enough to start this weekend.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Gabriel Osho | Knee Injury |
2️⃣ Liverpool Update
Liverpool’s run of one defeat in 21 EPL matches stretches back to April 1st, when Jurgen Klopp’s men were heavily beaten 4-1 by Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium. This season, they’ve won seven of their 10 Premier League matches and taken 23 points from the 30 available to them, while only losing once against Spurs in a game that saw them play 30 minutes with nine-men and concede a 96th-minute winner. The Reds are also averaging 17.20 shot-creating actions in the Premier League this season (second only to Spurs), while forward Mohammed Salah is in excellent form with 12 goal contributions (8 goals and four assists) in 10 appearances so far.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Liverpool 3 Nottingham Forest 0 | 29.10.23 Premier League |
| Liverpool 5 Toulouse 1 | 26.10.23 Europa League |
| Liverpool 2 Everton 0 | 21.10.23 Premier League |
| Brighton 2 Liverpool 2 | 08.10.23 Premier League |
| Liverpool 2 Union Saint-Gilloise 0 | 05.10.23 Champions League |
The Liverpool squad was rocked by the news of Luis Diaz’s parents being kidnapped prior to the clash with Forest, and the 26-year-old Colombian winger may remain unavailable for the trip to Luton. Left back Andy Robertson will also miss out with a shoulder injury, while midfielder Thiago remains absent as a result of general fitness issues. Young full back Conor Bradley is unavailable with a back complaint.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Andrew Robertson | Shoulder Injury |
| Thiago | Fitness |
| Conor Bradley | Back Injury |
👕 Luton vs Liverpool - Potential Lineups
| Pos. | Luton 3-4-2-1 | Liverpool 4-3-3 | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goalkeeper | T. Kaminski | Alisson | Goalkeeper |
| Right Centre Back | T. Mengi | T. Alexander-Arnold | Right Back |
| Centre Back | T. Lockyer | I. Konate | Centre Back |
| Left Centre Back | G. Osho | V. van Dijk | Centre Back |
| Right Wing Back | I. Kaboré | K. Tsimikas | Left Back |
| Midfielder | M. Nakamba | D. Szoboszlai | Midfielder |
| Midfielder | R. Barkley | A. Mac Allister | Midfielder |
| Left Wing Back | A. Doughty | R. Gravenberch | Midfielder |
| Attacking Midfielder | J. Brown | M. Salah | Wide Forward |
| Attacking Midfielder | C. Ogbene | D. Nunez | Striker |
| Striker | C. Morris | D. Jota | Wide Forward |
✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster
Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.
Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of different sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.
