Everton vs Aston Villa: Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

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TournamentPremier League
Timetable14:00 GMT, 14th Jan 24
PredictionAston Villa to Win!
Odds2.45
BookmakerLegend Play Sports
Aston Villa to Win!
The best odds
1.
Legend Play Sports
Odds : 2.45
Bet €100 and win €245 if Aston Villa win.
Bonus:
2.
Betiton
Odds : 2.41
Bet €100 and win €241 if Aston Villa win.
Bonus:
€10
3.
betway
Odds : 2.40
Bet €100 and win €240 if Aston Villa win.
Bonus:
€50+ 50 Free Spins
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Aston Villa have wobbled slightly after seismic back-to-back wins over Manchester City and Arsenal, with Sheffield United ending their 15-game winning streak at home and Manchester United coming from 2-0 down to win 3-2 at Old Trafford on Boxing Day. Everton have now lost three Premier League games on the bounce after four consecutive victories in early December, but may be boosted by the return of the influential Abdoulaye Doucoure in midfield. But will the Toffees win here, and how are the best betting sites pricing a potential Villa victory?

🏆 Everton vs Aston Villa EPL Prediction

This is one of the most historic fixtures in English football history, with Everton and Aston Villa having played each other 230 times since September 1888. However, the Toffees have struggled in this fixture of late, with their 2-1 victory in the League Cup on September 27th their first over Villa since March 2016.

Incredibly, Everton haven’t beaten Villa at Goodison Park since a 4-0 win in November 2015, so recent history is undoubtedly against them. What’s more, Everton have accrued less points (10) at home than they have on the road (16) this season, so Villa’s relatively patchy away form may be less of a concern for manager Unai Emery.

The reverse fixture at Villa Park on August 20th was also harrowing for Sean Dyche’s side, as the home side romped to a 4-0 win. The Villains also defeated Everton 2-0 at Goodison Park in February 2023, while the trademark high defensive line that they’ve adopted under Emery should work well against a Toffees’ side that lacks genuine pace in the final third.

Still, Everton will pose a threat in transition, while they’ve scored in all but one of their home league games since a 1-0 defeat to Arsenal on September 17th. I don’t think will be enough to deter an attack-oriented Villa though, with the side having created 43 big chances this season and averaging 3.70 goal-creating actions per 90 (only Man City have produced more). Overall, I’m tipping Villa to win a close and keenly contested game.

My Prediction: 🏆 Everton 1 – 2 Aston Villa ⚽

💯 Everton vs Aston Villa EPL Match Odds

Regardless of whether you want to stake real money on Everton v Aston Villa or leverage any free bets that you have on your account, there are plenty of markets to choose from. Here’s my take on the three most popular and their latest odds.

🏅 Everton vs Aston Villa: Match Winner

The bookies are finding this match tough to call, thanks in part to Villa’s inconsistent away form. However, Emery’s men are priced at around 2.70 to beat Everton, implying that this outcome has a 41.66% probability of occurring. Conversely, you can back the Toffees at a price of 2.70, suggesting that they have a 37.03% chance of winning.

Team
Everton to Win2.752.702.652.802.85
Aston Villa to Win2.382.402.412.402.45
Draw3.503.603.453.503.50

⚽ Everton vs Aston Villa: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have scored in just 35% of Everton’s EPL games this season, and 30% of their home matches. In fact, the Toffees have drawn four blanks and kept two clean sheets at Goodison in 2023/24. As for Villa, both sides have found the back of the net in 70% of their away matches, highlighting both their offensive strength and occasional defensive vulnerability on the road.

Yes/No
Yes1.551.601.541.571.53
No2.302.302.332.252.38

🥅 Everton vs Aston Villa: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Everton and Aston Villa have played 40 EPL matches combined this season, with these producing 122 goals at a rate of 3.05 per game. 55% of Everton’s home games have also produced over 2.5 goals, as have 70% of Villa’s away matches. So, it’s little wonder that the bookies expect over 2.5 goals to be scored at Goodison Park this time around.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals1.671.701.651.671.67
Under 2.5 Goals2.102.102.092.102.10

✔️ Everton vs Aston Villa - Betting Tips

Given the match winner odds here, you may want to engage in matched betting ahead of the clash between Everton and Aston Villa. For example, you could lay a back bet on Villa to win and cover all potential match outcomes, guaranteeing a profit so long as you use at least one free bet. But what other betting tips can help you to navigate the available betting markets successfully?

  • Tip 1: Back Villa to Win and Both Teams to Score: If you want to unlock further value in match betting, you could consider combining different markets in a single wager. In this case, I’d recommend backing Villa to win and both teams to score at the enhanced price of 4.20 with Betway. Certainly, I expect Villa to dominate possession and have too much firepower for their opponents, while Everton are more than adept at playing on the counter attack. They’ll also boast a heightened attacking threat if Abdoulaye Doucoure returns from injury at the weekend.
  • Tip 2: Back Villa to Win by a Single Goal: Villa have won four of their 10 away matches in 2023/24, but only one of these victories has been by more than a single goal (a 3-1 triumph at Burnley on August 27th). While the Toffees have already lost six league matches at Goodison Park in 2023/24, Man United (3-0) and Man City (3-1) are the only sides to defeat them by two goals or more. So, I’m expecting a narrow winning margin regardless of which side prevails, and there’s value in backing Villa to win by a single goal at a price of 4.00 with LegendPlay Sports.
  • Tip 3: Back Leon Bailey as an Anytime Goalscorer: Winger Leon Bailey has impressed for Villa this season, often retaining his place ahead of expensive summer signing Moussa Diaby. He also has an impressive record against the Toffees, having scored twice and assisted once in just four appearances. He struck Villa’s third goal in the 4-0 thrashing of Everton back in August too, so there’s clear value in backing him as an anytime scorer at Goodison at the competitive price of 4.00 with Dachbet Sports.

1️⃣ Everton Update

While Everton have taken a respectable 16 points from the last 30 available to them in the Premier League, their form has dipped after a run of four successive victories between December 2nd and December 16th. In fact, they lost all three of their matches over the festive period, despite competitive performances at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and at home against Manchester City. These results coincided with the loss of the influential Doucoure through injury, while the Toffees have certainly looked less potent without their top goalscorer. Make no mistake, his return could prove key if the Toffees are to get any kind of positive result against Villa.

Last 5 Games
Crystal Palace 0
Everton 0
04.01.24
FA Cup
Wolves 3
Everton 0
30.12.23
Premier League
Everton 1
Man City 3
27.12.23
Premier League
Tottenham2
Everton 1
23.12.23
Premier League
Everton 1
Fulham 1
19.12.23
EFL Cup

The potential return of Doucoure is huge news for Everton, while it’s hoped that winger Dwight McNeil (swollen ankle) will be fit to start at Goodison Park. Ashley Young may also be fit after suffering a knock, although Dele Alli is expected to remain out until February at the earliest. Idrissa Gueye will definitely miss out too, as he has joined up with the Senegal squad ahead of the African Cup of Nations.

PlayerReason
Abdoulaye Doucoure Fitness
Dwight McNeil Swollen Ankle
Ashley Young Knock
Dele Alli Hip Injury
Idrissa Gueye International Duty

2️⃣ Aston Villa Update

Aston Villa remain third in the EPL form table over the course of the last 10 games, having won six times and lost just twice during this period. Of course, this run included superb home wins over Manchester City and Arsenal, while they also triumphed impressively at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. However, Villa saw their record sequence of 15 consecutive home wins ended by a durable Sheffield United side too, while they looked defensively vulnerable and sloppy when blowing a 2-0 lead at Old Trafford on Boxing Day. They’re also considerably less consistent on the road, which is one of the reasons why this match is so difficult to call.

Last 5 Games
Middlesbrough 0
Aston Villa 1
06.01.24
FA Cup
Aston Villa 3
Burnley 2
30.12.23
Premier League
Man United 3
Aston Villa 2
26.12.23
Premier League
Aston Villa1
Sheffield United 1
22.12.23
Premier League
Brentford 1
Aston Villa 2
17.12.23
Premier League

As any football betting fan will know, it’s crucial to check out team and injury news before wagering your hard earned cash. In Villa’s case, they remain without long-term absentees Tyrone Mings and Emiliano Buendia (both knee), while left back Lucas Digne is sidelined until the end of January with a thigh complaint. However, summer signings Pau Torres (ankle) and Youri Tielemans (shin) will face late fitness tests and could feature in the matchday squad at Goodison Park.

PlayerReason
Tyrone Mings Knee Injury
Emiliano Buendia Knee Injury
Lucas Digne Thigh Injury
Pau Torres Ankle Injury
Youri Tielemans Shin Injury

👕 Everton vs Aston Villa - Potential Lineups

Pos. Everton
4-4-1-1
Aston Villa
4-4-1-1
Pos.
Goalkeeper J. Pickford E. Martinez Goalkeeper
Right Back N. Patterson E. Konsa Right Back
Centre Back J. Tarkowski D. Carlos Centre Back
Centre Back J. Branthwaite P. Torres Centre Back
Left Back V. Mykolenko A. Moreno Left Back
Right Midfielder J. Harrison L. Bailey Right Midfielder
Central Midfielder J. Garner D. Luiz Central Midfielder
Central Midfielder A. Onana J. McGinn Central Midfielder
Left Midfielder D. McNeil J. Ramsey Left Midfielder
Attacking Midfielder A. Doucouré M. Diaby Attacking Midfielder
Striker D. Calvert-Lewin O. Watkins Striker

Aston Villa to Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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