Chelsea v Brighton Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

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TournamentPremier League
Timetable14:00 GMT, 3rd Dec 23
PredictionBack the Draw!
Odds4.20
BookmakerLegend Play Sports
The best odds
Odds : 4.20
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Odds : 4.15
Bet €100 and win €415 if the game is drawn.
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Odds : 4.00
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€50+ 50 Free Spins
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Both of these sides have showcased inconsistent form of late, with Chelsea and Brighton taking 16 and 12 points respectively from the previous 30 available to them in the Premier League. The Blues certainly looked shorn of intensity and defensive organisation in their 4-1 defeat at Newcastle last time out, while Brighton’s chaotic 3-2 win against Forest was their first in seven EPL matches since September 24th. Both sides are struggling with injuries too, but what can we glean from the best betting sites and which side do I think will prevail in West London?

🏆 Chelsea vs Brighton EPL Prediction

Chelsea and Brighton have only contested 21 matches since their first meeting on January 14th 1933, with the Blues winning 13 of these games and losing just three. However, two of the Seagulls’ wins have come in the last three outings, including a superb 2-1 victory at Stamford Bridge on April 15th.

Chelsea won the most recent head-to-head encounter earlier this season, recording a 1-0 home victory in the EFL Cup on September 27th. Despite their inconsistency, the side has at least proved to be one of the most creative in the Premier League in 2023/24, with their xG value of 25.8 matched by Manchester City and bettered only by Liverpool.

However, the Blues have also missed 26 big chances so far this season (only Brentford have been more wasteful in front of goal), while Mauricio Pochettino’s men have won just once in seven league games at Stamford Bridge since the beginning of the campaign. It’s also interesting to note that Brighton have averaged more possession (60.8% vs 59.2%) per 90 minutes this season, while only Aston Villa and Manchester City have beaten the Seagulls on the road in 2023/24.

With both teams far from their best and struggling for consistency (Brighton are finding it particularly hard to cope with the demands of European football), this is likely to be a close and keenly contested match. I also expect there to be plenty of chances in what could be a high scoring game, which should ultimately see both sides claim a point apiece.

My Prediction: 🏆 Chelsea 2 – 2 Brighton⚽

💯 Chelsea vs Brighton EPL Match Odds

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You can access multiple Chelsea vs Brighton betting markets through the sportsbooks featured in Betinireland’s bookmaker reviews, including the match winner or result, both teams to score (or not) and the over/under on total goals scored. Here’s my analysis of these markets and how they’re being priced.

🏅 Chelsea vs Brighton: Match Winner

The match winner odds make for interesting reading, with Chelsea’s average price of 1.70 implying a 58.82% probability of a home victory. However, Brighton can be backed at around 4.33 to triumph in West London, which implies that they only have a 23.09% chance of beating Chelsea. These odds definitely create value in backing either Brighton to win or the draw, especially when you factor in the Blues torrid home form.

Team
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Chelsea to Win1.671.701.661.671.70
Brighton to Win4.504.334.254.334.50
Draw4.004.004.154.004.20

⚽ Chelsea vs Brighton: Both Teams To Score

Both sides have scored in seven of Chelsea’s 13 Premier League games this season, including five of the last six. The Blues have kept three clean sheets during this sequence, while drawing blanks against Nottingham Forest, Aston Villa and Brentford at home. As for the Seagulls, both teams have scored in every single EPL match they’ve contested this season, while they’ve failed to find the net in just one match in all competitions (the 1-0 defeat to Chelsea in the League Cup).

Yes/No
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Yes1.551.601.511.501.53
No2.302.302.392.382.38

🥅 Chelsea vs Brighton: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Both of these teams are characterised by sporadic attacking quality and defensive vulnerability, with Chelsea and Brighton conceding 1.31 and 1.61 goals per game in all competitions this season. Overall, the teams have contested 34 matches in 2023/24, with these encounters yielding an impressive 113 goals at a rate of 3.32 per 90.

Under/Over
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Over 2.5 Goals1.531.551.511.501.53
Under 2.5 Goals2.382.402.362.502.38

✔️ Chelsea vs Brighton - Betting Tips

If you have one or more free bets on your account, you may want to engage in matched betting. With this strategy, you could lay a back wager on Chelsea to win, covering all potential match outcomes through a betting exchange. Below, you’ll also find some additional betting tips to help you navigate the available Chelsea vs Brighton markets!

  • Tip 1: Back the Draw Outright: Both Chelsea and Brighton have drawn 30.76% of their 13 Premier League games in 2023/24, with the latter seeing three of their last four EPL matches end all square. At the same time, both teams are struggling with injuries and inconsistency, so neither is likely to be at their best (either offensively or defensively) at Stamford Bridge. So, there’s definite value in backing the draw outright at a price of 4.20 with LegendPlay Sports.
  • Tip 2: Back the Draw and Both Sides to Score: If you want to create further value in match wagering, you could also consider combination betting. For example, you can simultaneously back the draw and both sides to score at an enhanced price of 4.75 with Betway, which makes sense when you consider that Chelsea have scored in five of their last six EPL games and Brighton have yet to draw a league blank in 2023/24.
  • Tip 3: Back Over 3.5 Goals Being Scored in the Game: While most over/under betting activity is focused around the 2.5 goals betting line, this game certainly has the potential to be a high scoring encounter. Sure, Chelsea can be profligate at times, but neither side is defensively consistent and Brighton will be without suspended centre back and captain Lewis Dunk for the trip to Stamford Bridge. So, there’s value in backing over 3.5 goals scored in the contest at a price of 2.38 with TonyBet Sports.

1️⃣ Chelsea Update

Despite earning rave reviews for their performance when holding Manchester City to a 4-4 draw before the recent international break, Chelsea have actually recorded just one victory in their previous five Premier League games. While this run of matches has seen the Blues score 11 goals, they’ve also conceded 13, while the side was devoid of defensive solidity and tenacity when they slumped to a 4-1 defeat at Newcastle last time out. They’ll certainly have to defend better against an occasionally free flowing Brighton side, while coping without the suspended Reece James (who picked up a red card in the loss at St James Park).

Last 5 Games
Newcastle 4
Chelsea 1
25.11.23
Premier League
Chelsea 4
Man City 4
12.11.23
Premier League
Tottenham 1
Chelsea 4
06.11.23
Premier League
Chelsea 2
Blackburn 0
01.11.23
EFL Cup
Chelsea 0
Brentford 2
28.10.23
Premier League

Reece James will serve his one-game ban against Brighton, while fellow full back Marc Cucurella is also suspended after collecting five yellow cards in the EPL. Elsewhere, summer signings Christopher Nkunku and Romeo Lavia continue to build fitness after significant injuries, while Carney Chukwuemeka (knee) and Ben Chilwell (hamstring) have been ruled out of the clash against Brighton. Wesley Fofana (cruciate ligament tear) and Trevoh Chalobah (thigh) remain long-term absentees.

PlayerReason
Christopher Nkunku Fitness
Romeo Lavia Fitness
Carney Chukwuemeka Knee Injury
Ben Chilwell Hamstring Injury
Wesley Fofana Cruciate Ligament Tear
Trevoh Chalobah Thigh Injury
Reece James Suspended
Marc Cucurella Suspended

2️⃣ Brighton Update

Brighton have only taken seven points from the previous 21 available to them, while their 3-2 away win against Nottingham Forest last time out was their first in seven matches since a 3-1 victory over Bournemouth on September 24th. This sequence has come amid a slew of injuries and participation in the UEFA Europa League, while it has also seen Roberto De Zerbi’s men slip from third to eighth in the EPL table. However, they boast a potent weapon in young striker Evan Ferguson, who already has six Premier League goals to his name this season from an xG value of just 2.8.

Last 5 Games
Nottingham Forest 2
Brighton 3
25.11.23
Premier League
Brighton 1
Sheffield United 1
12.11.23
Premier League
Ajax 0
Brighton 2
09.11.23
UEFA Europa League
Everton 1
Brighton 1
04.11.23
Premier League
Brighton 1
Fulham 1
29.10.23
Premier League

As I’ve already touched on, Brighton skipper Lewis Dunk will miss out against Chelsea following his red card against Nottingham Forest last time out. Mahmoud Dahoud also serves the second game of his ban after being sent off against Sheffield United on November 12th, while Julio Enciso (meniscus tear), Solly March (knee) and Danny Welbeck (hamstring) remain sidelined too. Left back Pervis Estupiñán continues his recovery from a muscle injury, although tricky winger Kaoru Mitoma could return to the starting 11 after missing out against Forest with a knock. However, on loan winger Ansu Fati and defender Tariq Lamptey have been ruled out for several weeks after recent knocks.

PlayerReason
Ansu Fati Unknown Injury
Tariq Lamptey Unknown Injury
Solly March Knee Injury
Julio Enciso Meniscus Tear
Danny Welbeck Hamstring Injury
Pervis Estupiñán Muscle Injury
Kaoru Mitoma Knock
Lewis Dunk Suspended
Mahmoud Dahoud Suspended

👕 Chelsea vs Brighton - Potential Lineups

Pos. Chelsea
4-3-3
Brighton
4-2-3-1
Pos.
Goalkeeper R. Sanchez B. Verbruggen Goalkeeper
Right Back M. Gusto J. Veltman Right Back
Centre Back A. Disasi Jan Paul van Hecke Centre Back
Centre Back T. Silva A. Webster Centre Back
Left Back L. Colwill P. Gross Left Back
Midfielder M. Caicedo B. Gilmour Midfielder
Midfielder E. Fernandez C. Carlos Baleba Midfielder
Midfielder C. Gallagher F. Buonanotte Midfielder
Wide Forward C. Palmer S. Adingra Wide Forward
Striker N. Jackson E. Ferguson Striker
Wide Forward R. Sterling K. Mitoma Wide Forward

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

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Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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