Chelsea vs Brentford Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips
| Timetable | 12:30 GMT 28th Oct 23 |
| Prediction | Chelsea To Win! |
| Odds | Chelsea to Win @1.63 |
| Bookmaker | Dachbet Sports |
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It’s a testament to Brentford’s ascent as a Premier League side that a clash against Chelsea is viewed as a competitive matchup, while the Bees are even unbeaten in three EPL matches against the Blues since October 2021. However, Chelsea appear to be turning the corner after a torrid run of form through 2023, with the team now unbeaten in three games and having reached the dizzy heights of 10th in the league. However, some vulnerability remains at the Bridge, with Chelsea lucky to escape with a point against Arsenal last time out despite roaring into a 2-0 lead. But can Brentford capitalise on this and defy the football betting odds, or will Chelsea continue their improved form under Mauricio Pochettino?
🏆 Chelsea vs Brentford
Chelsea and Brentford have only contested 19 matches since their first clash in November 1935, with the Blues winning 10 and losing six of these games. Like I say, however, Chelsea are winless in three EPL matches against the Bees, with Brentford even administering a 4-1 thrashing at Stamford Bridge as recently as April 2022.
While the sides are only separated by two points in the Premier League table too, Chelsea have actually performed better than their position suggests. For example, they’ve averaged 61.0% possession so far this season (only Manchester City can boast more), while their expected goals value of 16.3 is higher than City, Tottenham and even Arsenal at the time of writing. However, Brentford’s is even higher at 16.9, with the Bees relative lack of goals, form and consistency largely down to the absence of talismanic striker Ivan Toney.
This means that we can expect chances at both ends at the Bridge, although the lack of an established goalscorer on either side could lead to a frustrating afternoon overall. Chelsea’s improved form and home advantage could prove decisive here, however, especially with the Bees having won just once in their previous seven Premier League games and struggling for confidence. So, I’m tipping the Blues to win in a match where both sides to score at the Bridge.
My Prediction: 🏆 Chelsea 2 – 1 Brentford ⚽
💯 Chelsea vs Brentford UCL Match Odds
There are plenty of ways in which you can bet on the EPL clash between Chelsea and Brentford, whether you want to wager on the match winner, both sides to score or the total number of goals you think will be scored in the game. Here’s a glimpse at the three most popular betting markets and their latest odds!
🏅 Chelsea vs Brentford: Match Winner
Chelsea’s recent uptick in form appears to have influenced the best EPL betting sites, who have made the Blues odds-on favourites to beat their West London rivals. In fact, Chelsea’s average ante post price of 1.62 implies that the side has a 61.7% chance of winning the game, but what are the odds of a Brentford victory?
| Team |  |  |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea to Win | 1.62 | 1.62 | 1.56 | 1.60 | 1.63 |
| Brentford to Win | 5.50 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.50 | 5.00 |
| Draw | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.20 | 4.00 |
⚽ Chelsea vs Brentford: Both Teams To Score
Six of Brentford’s nine EPL matches this season have seen both participating teams score, although Chelsea have failed to score in three Premier League games so far while keeping three clean sheets. So, the bookies are relatively split on whether both teams will score in this match, making it an incredibly tough market to navigate.
| Yes/No | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.73 | 1.83 | 1.76 | 1.70 | 1.80 |
| No | 2.00 | 1.95 | 1.92 | 1.91 | 1.95 |
🥅 Chelsea vs Brentford: Over/Under 2.5 Goals
If you want to wager on the over/under for total goals scored in the match between Chelsea and Brentford, 2.5 goals is the single most popular betting line. However, this is also an incredibly tough and challenging wagering market in this instance, as the 22 matches played by Chelsea and Brentford this season have yielded 55 goals at a rate of exactly 2.50 per game.
| Under/Over | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 1.73 | 1.80 | 1.75 | 1.83 | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 2.00 | 1.95 | 1.93 | 1.95 | 1.95 |
✔️ Chelsea vs Brentford - Betting Tips
As you can see, some of these betting markets are evenly poised and priced accordingly by the bookies, making it hard to identify value and make the most of your bankroll. So, I’ve prepared some insightful betting tips to help you achieve these objectives!
- Tip 1: Back Chelsea to Win: While Chelsea are clear favourites to beat the Bees, you can still find some value in backing this outcome at a price of 1.63 with LegendPlay Sports. I certainly expect them to dominate possession and create chances at the Bridge, while the much-maligned forward Mykhailo Mudryk has also found form having hit two goals in his last three Premier League outings. The Blues also have the advantage of not playing in the Champions League or any European competition this season, so they should be fresh for the visit of Thomas Frank’s men!
- Tip 2: Back Both Sides to Score: The BTTS odds hint at a slightly higher probability of both sides scoring at the Bridge, although the bookies appear to be hedging their bets in this respect. However, both sides have impressive expected goals values this season, while Chelsea and Brentford have produced 23.67 and 25.44 shot-creating actions per 90 respectively and remain more than capable in the final third. So, I think there’s value in backing both teams to score here, and you can get on this at a price of 1.83 with Betway.
- Tip 3: Back Chelsea to Win and Over 2.5 Goals Being Scored: If you like wagers that deliver higher potential returns or need to meet the minimum odds requirements for a particular free bet offer, you may also want to engage in combination betting. In this case, you could consider backing Chelsea to win and more than 2.5 goals being scored in the game at an extended price of 2.60 with Dachbet, with this unlocking greater value and reflecting the creative abilities of both sides.
1️⃣ Chelsea Update
The Blues have now played 53 matches since the initial appointment of Graham Potter last September, winning just 18 of these and losing 22. However, the summer appointment of Mauricio Pochettino has seen a definite improvement in the team’s collective shape and performance metrics, while Chelsea are now unbeaten in three EPL games and have lost just one of their previous five matches. Their tally of 483 ball recoveries is also the eighth highest in the EPL this season, so the team is showcasing far higher levels of energy and commitment to the cause. They’re also well equipped to deal with Brentford’s direct playing style, having won a league high 58.9% of their aerial duels this campaign.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Chelsea 2 Arsenal 2 | 21.10.23 Premier League |
| Burnley 1 Chelsea 4 | 07.10.23 Premier League |
| Fulham 0 Chelsea 2 | 02.10.23 Premier League |
| Chelsea 1 Brighton 0 | 27.09.23 EFL Cup |
| Chelsea 0 Aston Villa 1 | 24.09.23 Premier League |
Chelsea’s injury list is starting to clear too, with French centre back Axel Disasi set to return after a minor injury. However, Christopher Nkunku (knee injury) and Wesley Fofana (cruciate ligament tear) remain long-term absentees, while defenders Ben Chilwell (hamstring) and Trevoh Chalobah (thigh) are also unavailable for the visit of Brentford. Reserve keeper Marcus Bettinelli is also missing with an unknown injury.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Christopher Nkunku | Knee Injury |
| Wesley Fofana | Cruciate Ligament Tear |
| Ben Chilwell | Hamstring Injury |
| Trevoh Chalobah | Thigh Injury |
| Marcus Bettinelli | Unknown Injury |
2️⃣ Brentford Update
While Brentford also remain typically combative and have completed an impressive 476 ball recoveries this season, the side continues to toil in the absence of the suspended Ivan Toney. In fact, they’ve won just one of their last seven Premier League matches, while the side has only recorded two victories in 11 outings across all competitions through 2023/24 so far. This represents a significant drop-off in form, and one that’s been compounded by the fact that despite having the fifth highest expected goals value in the league, Brentford are only the ninth highest scorers with 14 goals in nine games. This needs to improve if they’re to replicate their achievements of the last two campaigns.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Brentford 3 Burnley 0 | 21.10.23 Premier League |
| Manchester United 2 Brentford 1 | 07.10.23 Premier League |
| Nottingham Forest 1 Brentford 1 | 01.10.23 Premier League |
| Brentford 0 Arsenal 1 | 27.09.23 EFL Cup |
| Brentford 1 Everton 3 | 23.09.23 Premier League |
Ivan Toney’s suspension will continue until January 17th, while fellow forward Kevin Schade is also unavailable with an adductor injury. Central midfield pair Josh Dasilva (hamstring injury) and Shandon Baptiste (shoulder) will miss out too, while Danish winger Mikkel Damsgaard is continuing his recovery from knee surgery.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Ivan Toney | Suspended |
| Kevin Schade | Adductor Injury |
| Josh Dasilva | Hamstring Injury |
| Shandon Baptiste | Shoulder Injury |
| Mikkel Damsgaard | Knee Injury |
👕 Chelsea vs Brentford - Potential Lineups
| Pos. | Chelsea 4-3-3 | Brentford 3-5-2 | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goalkeeper | R. Sanchez | T. Strakosha | Goalkeeper |
| Right Back | M. Gusto | K. Ajer | Right Centre Back |
| Centre Back | T. Silva | E. Pinnock | Centre Back |
| Centre Back | A. Disasi | N. Collins | Left Centre Back |
| Left Back | L. Colwill | M. Roerslev | Right Wing Back |
| Midfielder | M. Caicedo | M. Jensen | Midfielder |
| Midfielder | E. Fernandez | C. Nørgaard | Midfielder |
| Midfielder | C. Gallagher | V. Janelt | Midfielder |
| Wide Forward | C. Palmer | A. Hickey | Left Wing Back |
| Striker | N. Jackson | B. Mbeumo | Striker |
| Wide Forward | R. Sterling | Y. Wissa | Striker |
✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster
Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.
Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of different sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.
