Brentford vs Aston Villa Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

🏆 Brentford vs Aston Villa EPL Prediction

While Aston Villa have won seven of their 18 head-to-head encounters with Brentford, only one of these victories have been recorded since February 1953. In fact, the Villains have triumphed in just one of their last 10 league matches against the Bees since 2016, with Brentford prevailing on four occasions and the other five games ending in draws.

Despite being separated by 16 points in the current EPL table, Brentford and Villa have produced similar xG values of 28.5 and 28.8 respectively. However, while Villa have outperformed their own xG value by +3.20 goals, Brentford have underperformed theirs by -6.5 goals and only Manchester United have delivered worse outcomes according to this metric.

While this can be largely attributed to the loss of Ivan Toney to a long-term suspension, it also showcases Brentford’s ability to create chances and threaten in the attacking third. Frank’s men have also completed an impressive 819 ball recoveries this season (the ninth highest tally in the league) and won 177 tackles, so they’ll be competitive throughout and won’t allow Villa time or space on the ball.

However, the loss of the Bees forward Bryan Mbeumo (who has top scored this season in the absence of Toney) to injury could prove crucial here, as it leaves Brentford without a tangible or proven goal threat. So, I’m predicting a Villa win here in what could be a low scoring game.

💯 Brentford vs Aston Villa EPL Match Odds

If you check out Betinireland’s detailed bookmaker reviews, you’ll see that each featured sportsbook offers a range of Brentford vs Aston Villa betting markets. These include the match winner, BTTS and the over/under on how many goals will be scored in the game, so here’s my analysis of the latest odds!

🏅 Brentford vs Aston Villa: Match Winner

Villa are the narrow favourites to beat Brentford at the Gtech Community Stadium, with their average price of 2.10 implying a 47.61% probability of an away win. As for Brentford, they’re priced at around 3.10 to beat their high-flying opponents, suggesting that the side has a 32.25% chance of claiming the win.

Team
Brentford to Win	3.10	3.20	3.10	3.10	3.25
Aston Villa to Win	2.10	2.10	2.06	2.10	2.00
Draw	3.50	3.50	3.55	3.60	3.60

⚽ Brentford vs Aston Villa: Both Teams To Score

Both sides have scored in 10 of Villa’s 16 Premier League games, and 15 of 24 overall. Villa have scored in all but two of their EPL matches, while they’ve kept five clean sheets and two consecutively against Man City and Arsenal. Both teams have found the back of the net in nine of Brentford’s 16 Premier League contests, with the Bees drawing four blanks and keeping three clean sheets.

Yes/No
Yes	1.55	1.60	1.52	1.50	1.57
No	2.30	2.30	2.31	2.25	2.25

🥅 Brentford vs Aston Villa: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Brentford and Villa have played 42 matches combined in 2023/24, with the latter’s contribution boosted significantly by their European campaign. These games have produced a total of 131 goals at a rate of 3.11 per 90 minutes, so it’s no surprise that the over/under odds imply a higher probability of more than 2.5 goals being scored.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals	1.67	1.67	1.62	1.70	1.67
Under 2.5 Goals	2.10	2.15	2.11	2.20	2.10

1️⃣ Brentford Update

Brentford’s form has experienced numerous peaks and troughs of late, as despite winning three successive EPL matches between October 21st and November 4th, they’ve since lost four out of five and taken just three points from the 15 available. The loss of Mbeumo with an ankle injury has therefore come at the worst possible time, although it should be noted that Arsenal are the only side to beat the Bees at home since September 23rd. What’s more, the team has only lost three of their last 23 EPL games at the Gtech Community Stadium since September 18th, 2022, so Villa will have their work cut out if they’re to leave West London with three points.

Bryan Mbeumo (ankle) has joined the suspended Ivan Toney and full back Rico Henry (who’s out for the season with a knee injury) as a long-term Bees’ absentee, while Josh Dasilva is a doubt with a hamstring strain. Exciting your forward Kevin Schade is also expected to miss out with an adductor injury.

2️⃣ Aston Villa Update

Not only are Villa the league’s in-form side having taken 23 points from the last 30 available to them, but they’ve also been incredibly impressive throughout the whole of 2023 so far. In fact, they sit second in the annual Premier League table for the calendar year, as they’ve accrued 78 points from their 38 matches and won 24 times in total. This is more points than Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester United and Newcastle have collected through 2023, so there’s no doubting their pedigree or the impact of former Villareal coach Unai Emery. However, their away form is slightly less convincing, as they’ve only won one of their last four EPL matches on the road.

Villa centre back and former captain Tyrone Mings has been ruled out for the season with a cruciate ligament tear, while winger Emiliano Buendía is recovering with a similar injury and won’t be back in training until February. What’s more, full back Lucas Digne and influential midfielder Douglas Luiz will miss the trip to Brentford due to suspension, having each picked up their fifth booking of the campaign in the win over Arsenal. Alex Moreno and Jacob Ramsey could come into their side as their replacements.

👕 Brentford v Aston Villa - Potential Lineups

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.