Brentford vs Aston Villa Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

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TournamentPremier League
Timetable14:00 GMT, 17th Dec 23
PredictionAston Villa to Win!
Odds2.10
BookmakerDachbet Sports
Aston Villa to Win!
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Odds : 2.10
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Aston Villa are now the EPL’s in-form team, having won seven of their last 10 Premier League matches and taken 23 points from the 30 available to them during this period. So, they’ll travel to Brentford in confident mood, especially with Thomas Frank’s men having lost four of their previous five league games. However, the Bees are combative and difficult to beat at home, while Villa have already been beaten three times on the road in 2023/24. So, this is a deceptively tough to call match, but which side do I think will win and how are the potential match outcomes being priced by the best betting sites?

🏆 Brentford vs Aston Villa EPL Prediction

While Aston Villa have won seven of their 18 head-to-head encounters with Brentford, only one of these victories have been recorded since February 1953. In fact, the Villains have triumphed in just one of their last 10 league matches against the Bees since 2016, with Brentford prevailing on four occasions and the other five games ending in draws.

Despite being separated by 16 points in the current EPL table, Brentford and Villa have produced similar xG values of 28.5 and 28.8 respectively. However, while Villa have outperformed their own xG value by +3.20 goals, Brentford have underperformed theirs by -6.5 goals and only Manchester United have delivered worse outcomes according to this metric.

While this can be largely attributed to the loss of Ivan Toney to a long-term suspension, it also showcases Brentford’s ability to create chances and threaten in the attacking third. Frank’s men have also completed an impressive 819 ball recoveries this season (the ninth highest tally in the league) and won 177 tackles, so they’ll be competitive throughout and won’t allow Villa time or space on the ball.

However, the loss of the Bees forward Bryan Mbeumo (who has top scored this season in the absence of Toney) to injury could prove crucial here, as it leaves Brentford without a tangible or proven goal threat. So, I’m predicting a Villa win here in what could be a low scoring game.

My Prediction: 🏆 Brentford 0 – 2 Aston Villa ⚽

💯 Brentford vs Aston Villa EPL Match Odds

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If you check out Betinireland’s detailed bookmaker reviews, you’ll see that each featured sportsbook offers a range of Brentford vs Aston Villa betting markets. These include the match winner, BTTS and the over/under on how many goals will be scored in the game, so here’s my analysis of the latest odds!

🏅 Brentford vs Aston Villa: Match Winner

Villa are the narrow favourites to beat Brentford at the Gtech Community Stadium, with their average price of 2.10 implying a 47.61% probability of an away win. As for Brentford, they’re priced at around 3.10 to beat their high-flying opponents, suggesting that the side has a 32.25% chance of claiming the win.

Team
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Brentford to Win3.103.203.103.103.25
Aston Villa to Win2.102.102.062.102.00
Draw3.503.503.553.603.60

⚽ Brentford vs Aston Villa: Both Teams To Score

Both sides have scored in 10 of Villa’s 16 Premier League games, and 15 of 24 overall. Villa have scored in all but two of their EPL matches, while they’ve kept five clean sheets and two consecutively against Man City and Arsenal. Both teams have found the back of the net in nine of Brentford’s 16 Premier League contests, with the Bees drawing four blanks and keeping three clean sheets.

Yes/No
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LegendPlay-logoLegendPlay-logo
Yes1.551.601.521.501.57
No2.302.302.312.252.25

🥅 Brentford vs Aston Villa: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Brentford and Villa have played 42 matches combined in 2023/24, with the latter’s contribution boosted significantly by their European campaign. These games have produced a total of 131 goals at a rate of 3.11 per 90 minutes, so it’s no surprise that the over/under odds imply a higher probability of more than 2.5 goals being scored.

Under/Over
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LegendPlay-logoLegendPlay-logo
Over 2.5 Goals1.671.671.621.701.67
Under 2.5 Goals2.102.152.112.202.10

✔️ Brentford vs Aston Villa - Betting Tips

Although matched betting is always an effective use of any free bets that you have on your preferred sportsbook account, this strategy offers slightly less value when wagering on games with a clear favourite. So, here are some alternative tips to help you wager your bankroll effectively!

  • Tip 1: Back Both Teams Not to Score: While the current odds imply a higher probability of both sides scoring in this match, the absence of Bryan Mbeumo will weaken an already depleted Brentford attack. Mbeumo has really stepped up in the absence of Ivan Toney, with his total of seven Premier League goals accounting for 30.43% of the Bees’ overall tally in the competition. He’s also Brentford’s first choice penalty taker, so I think there’s value in backing both teams not to score at a price of 2.31 with Betiton Sports.
  • Tip 2: Back Villa to Win With Under 2.5 Goals Scored: While Brentford are significantly weakened in attack, they remain defensively well organised and have won the fourth highest number of tackles in this season’s Premier League. Villa have also won their last two games by a single goal, while they haven’t scored more than twice in a match since their 3-1 victory over Fulham on November 12th (a run of five games). So, get on Villa to win with under 2.5 goals scored at a price of 5.50 with Betway.
  • Tip 3: Back Leon Bailey as an Anytime Goalscorer: While former Brentford forward Ollie Watkins remains Villa’s primary goal threat, Leon Bailey has also come to the fore of late. In fact, he has struck twice in his last three EPL games (including the crucial winner against Manchester City) and assisted John McGinn’s strike against Arsenal, so there’s value in backing him as an anytime goalscorer at an enhanced price of 4.33 with LegendPlay Sports. This is a particularly valuable wager if you have one or more free bets on your account.

1️⃣ Brentford Update

Brentford’s form has experienced numerous peaks and troughs of late, as despite winning three successive EPL matches between October 21st and November 4th, they’ve since lost four out of five and taken just three points from the 15 available. The loss of Mbeumo with an ankle injury has therefore come at the worst possible time, although it should be noted that Arsenal are the only side to beat the Bees at home since September 23rd. What’s more, the team has only lost three of their last 23 EPL games at the Gtech Community Stadium since September 18th, 2022, so Villa will have their work cut out if they’re to leave West London with three points.

Last 5 Games
Sheffield United 1
Brentford 0
09.12.23
Premier League
Brighton 2
Brentford 1
06.12.23
Premier League
Brentford 3
Luton Town 1
02.12.23
Premier League
Brentford 0
Arsenal 1
25.11.23
Premier League
Liverpool 3
Brentford 0
12.11.23
Premier League

Bryan Mbeumo (ankle) has joined the suspended Ivan Toney and full back Rico Henry (who’s out for the season with a knee injury) as a long-term Bees’ absentee, while Josh Dasilva is a doubt with a hamstring strain. Exciting your forward Kevin Schade is also expected to miss out with an adductor injury.

PlayerReason
Bryan Mbeumo Ankle Injury
Ivan Toney Suspended
Rico Henry Knee Injury
Josh Dasilva Hamstring Injury
Kevin Schade Adductor Injury

2️⃣ Aston Villa Update

Not only are Villa the league’s in-form side having taken 23 points from the last 30 available to them, but they’ve also been incredibly impressive throughout the whole of 2023 so far. In fact, they sit second in the annual Premier League table for the calendar year, as they’ve accrued 78 points from their 38 matches and won 24 times in total. This is more points than Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester United and Newcastle have collected through 2023, so there’s no doubting their pedigree or the impact of former Villareal coach Unai Emery. However, their away form is slightly less convincing, as they’ve only won one of their last four EPL matches on the road.

Last 5 Games
Aston Villa 1
Arsenal 0
09.12.23
Premier League
Aston Villa 1
Manchester City 0
06.12.23
Premier League
Bournemouth 2
Aston Villa 2
03.12.23
Premier League
Aston Villa 2
Legia Warsaw 1
30.11.23
UEFA Europa League
Tottenham 1
Aston Villa 2
26.11.23
Premier League

Villa centre back and former captain Tyrone Mings has been ruled out for the season with a cruciate ligament tear, while winger Emiliano Buendía is recovering with a similar injury and won’t be back in training until February. What’s more, full back Lucas Digne and influential midfielder Douglas Luiz will miss the trip to Brentford due to suspension, having each picked up their fifth booking of the campaign in the win over Arsenal. Alex Moreno and Jacob Ramsey could come into their side as their replacements.

PlayerReason
Tyrone Mings Cruciate Ligament Tear
Emiliano Buendía Cruciate Ligament Tear
Lucas Digne Suspended
Douglas Luiz Suspended

👕 Brentford v Aston Villa - Potential Lineups

Pos. Brentford
4-3-3
Aston Villa
4-4-1-1
Pos.
Goalkeeper M. Flekken E. Martinez Goalkeeper
Right Back O. Ghoddos E. Konsa Right Back
Centre Back E. Pinnock D. Carlos Centre Back
Centre Back B. Mee P. Torres Centre Back
Left Back V. Janelt A. Moreno Left Back
Midfielder F. Onyeka L. Bailey Right Midfielder
Midfielder C. Nørgaard B. Kamara Midfielder
Midfielder Y. Yarmolyuk J. McGinn Midfielder
Wide Forward K. Lewis-Potter J. Ramsey Left Midfielder
Striker N. Maupay Y. Tielemans Attacking Midfielder
Wide Forward Y. Wissa Watkins Striker

Aston Villa to Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

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Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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