Bournemouth vs Liverpool Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

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TournamentPremier League
Timetable16:30 GMT, 21st Jan 24
PredictionLiverpool to Win!
Odds1.73
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Liverpool to Win!
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Odds : 1.73
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Odds : 1.70
Bet €100 and win €170 if Liverpool win.
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Odds : 1.70
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It’s a testament to the work being done by Bournemouth manager Andoni Iraola that the Cherries’ clash with Liverpool will see the Premier League’s two form teams go head-to-head on the south coast. Bournemouth have lost just one of their last eight Premier League games, while Liverpool are unbeaten in 13 and have only been beaten once in 31 EPL outings since April 1st, 2023. This should be an enthralling encounter, but which team do I think will win and how are the best betting sites pricing each potential match outcome?

🏆 Bournemouth vs Liverpool EPL Prediction

Bournemouth and Liverpool have only played each other 21 times since January 1927, with the Cherries recording just two wins and 16 defeats in this sequence. However, both of these wins have come since 2016, while Bournemouth won last season’s corresponding fixture 1-0 on March 11th, 2023.

As I’ve touched on, both Bournemouth and Liverpool have acquired 22 points from the previous 30 available to them, while no team has recorded more wins that the Cherries (seven) during the last 10 gameweeks. In recent times, Bournemouth have also become one of the most efficient EPL sides in the attacking third, with their goals-per-shot ratio of 0.11 the seventh highest in the league.

This can largely be attributed to the Cherries’ former Liverpool striker Dominic Solanke, who has already plunder 12 EPL goals this season from a personal xG value of just 11.0.

While I’d certainly back Bournemouth to score at the Vitality Stadium, Liverpool are proving incredibly tough to beat and present and continue to grind out results without being at their best. The relentless Reds are also the most creative side in the Premier League currently, averaging 33.35 shot-creating actions per 90 and an xG value of 44.1 (both competition highs).

So, despite Bournemouth’s outstanding form and the threat posed by Solanke, I’m tipping Liverpool to edge an open and potentially high scoring encounter!

My Prediction: 🏆 Bournemouth 2 – 3 Liverpool ⚽

💯 Bournemouth vs Liverpool EPL Match Odds

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Regardless of which sportsbook you select from Betinireland’s comprehensive bookmaker reviews, you’ll find a diverse range of Bournemouth vs Liverpool betting markets. The most popular include the match winner, BTTS and the over/under on how many goals will be scored, but how are these markets currently being priced?

🏅 Bournemouth vs Liverpool: Match Winner

Despite the Cherries’ form and the fact that they’re unbeaten at home since October 21st, their average price of 4.20 implies that they only have a 23.80% chance of beating Liverpool. Conversely, the Reds can be backed at around 1.70, which implies a 58.82% probability of an away win.

Team
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Bournemouth to Win4.334.004.204.004.20
Liverpool to Win1.671.731.661.701.70
Draw4.204.204.204.004.20

⚽ Bournemouth vs Liverpool: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have scored in 58% of Bournemouth’s 19 Premier League games in 2023/24, although this figure dips to 44% when the Cherries play at home. However, both sides have found the net in 65% of Liverpool’s EPL matches and 80% of their encounters away from Anfield, highlighting their immense attacking threat (and defensive vulnerability) on the road.

Yes/No
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Yes1.441.481.441.501.44
No2.602.602.602.502.63

🥅 Bournemouth vs Liverpool: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Bournemouth and Liverpool have contested 54 matches between them this season, with Liverpool playing 31 of these. These encounters have produced 181 goals at an impressive rate of 3.35 per 90, while 74% of the Cherries’ matches at the Vitality Stadium have produced over 2.5 goals so far in 2023/24.

Under/Over
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Over 2.5 Goals1.401.451.431.441.44
Under 2.5 Goals2.702.702.592.602.63

✔️ Bournemouth vs Liverpool - Betting Tips

Given the recent form of these two sides, there may be value in deploying a matched betting strategy ahead of this game. While you could lay a back bet on Liverpool to win and cover all potential match outcomes, I think there are better ways in which you can make use of any free bets on your account in this instance.

These include:

  • Tip 1: Back Liverpool to Win with Over 3.5 Goals Scored: Usually, over/under wagering is focused around the 2.5 goals betting line, but this match has the potential to be particularly high scoring. Bournemouth and Liverpool are the second and fourth highest scorers over the course of the last 10 EPL games, while the Cherries have also conceded 15 goals at a rate of 1.5 per 90 during this time. So, I think there’s value in backing the Reds to win with over 3.5 goals scored in the game at a price of 3.30 with Betway.
  • Tip 2: Back Dominic Solanke as an Anytime Goalscorer: I’ve already touched on Dominic Solanke’s outstanding form this season, with his tally of 12 goals in 19 appearances already a personal best for the 26-year-old. Solanke has also registered six goals in his last six EPL outings (including a superb hattrick in the 3-2 win at Nottingham Forest), while he’ll be particularly keen to score against his former club. So, I think he offers genuine value as an anytime goalscorer at the generous price of 3.25 with TonyBet.
  • Tip 3: Back Both Teams to Score in the Second Half: The Cherries have conceded 20 of their 35 EPL goals this season in the second half of matches, while they’re also far more prolific in the second 45 minutes of games. As for Liverpool, they’ve struck 26 of their 43 goals after half-time, while they’ve only conceded seven times during the same period (compared to 11 in the first 45 minutes). So, consider betting on both sides to score in the second half at a price of 2.50 with LegendPlay.

1️⃣ Bournemouth Update

Bournemouth failed to win any of their first nine Premier League games in 2023/24, while a 6-1 loss at Manchester City on November 4th left them mired in the relegation zone. However, the side has since won six out of eight league matches, only enduring an unfortunate defeat at Tottenham (in which they struck 24 shots at goal) during this period. It should also be noted that they gave Liverpool plenty of problems during their 3-1 defeat at Anfield on August 19th, taking the lead inside three minutes and regularly recovering the ball high through their aggressive counter-pressing.

Last 5 Games
QPR 2
Bournemouth 3
06.01.24
FA Cup
Tottenham 3
Bournemouth 1
31.12.23
Premier League
Bournemouth 3
Fulham 0
26.12.23
Premier League
Nottingham Forest 2
Bournemouth 3
23.12.23
Premier League
Man United 0
Bournemouth 3
09.12.23
Premier League

Defender Marcos Senesi is suspended for this game after collecting five yellow cards, while Tyler Adams (thigh injury), Hamed Traore (illness) and Ryan Fredericks (calf) remain long-term absentees. The match with Liverpool should come too early for defender Lloyd Kelly (thigh) too, although left back Milos Kerkez may be fit after recovering from an ankle knock incurred during the festive period. Dango Outtara and Antoine Semenyo are also at the African Cup of Nations with Burkina Faso and Ghana respectively.

PlayerReason
Marcos Senesi Suspended
Tyler Adams Thigh Injury
Hamed Traore Illness
Ryan Fredericks Calf Injury
Lloyd Kelly Thigh Injury
Milos Kerkez Ankle Knock
Dango Outtara International Duty
Antoine Semenyo International Duty

2️⃣ Liverpool Update

Liverpool have topped the EPL form side for much of the season, having lost just one of their 20 league matches so far in 2023/24. They’re also unbeaten in 13 since an incredibly unfortunate 2-1 defeat at Spurs (when they played the final 30 minutes with nine men), while this remains their only loss in 31 outings since a 4-1 thrashing at the Etihad Stadium on April 1st, 2023. Of course, midfielder Wataru Endō and the talismanic Mohamed Salah remain on international duty and have joined a number of other absentees, but Jurgen Klopp has enough midfield and forward resources to compensate for their absences.

Last 5 Games
Liverpool 2
Fulham 1
10.01.24
EFL Cup
Arsenal 0
Liverpool 2
07.01.24
FA Cup
Liverpool 4
Newcastle 2
01.01.24
Premier League
Burnley 0
Liverpool 2
26.12.23
Premier League
Liverpool 1
Arsenal 1
23.12.23
Premier League

In addition to Endo and Salah being away on international duty, Liverpool are facing something of a defensive injury crisis. Joel Matip remains sidelined for the rest of the campaign with a ruptured ACL, for example, while Andrew Robertson and Konstantinos Tsimikas (both shoulder) and Trent Alexander-Arnold (knee) will also miss the trip to Bournemouth. Midfielders Stefan Bajcetic (fitness) and Thiago (groin) will be out until February, while Dominik Szoboszlai (thigh) is likely to miss out on the south coast as well.

PlayerReason
Mo Salah International Duty
Wataru Endō International Duty
Joel Matip Ruptured ACL
Andrew Robertson Shoulder Injury
Konstantinos Tsimikas Shoulder Injury
Trent Alexander-Arnold Knee Injury
Stefan Bajcetic Fitness
Thiago Groin Injury
Dominik Szoboszlai Thigh Injury

👕 Bournemouth v Liverpool - Potential Lineups

Pos. Bournemouth
4-2-3-1
Liverpool
4-3-3
Pos.
Goalkeeper Neto Alisson Goalkeeper
Right Back A. Smith C. Bradley Right Back
Centre Back I. Zabarnyi I. Konate Centre Back
Centre Back C. Mepham V. van Dijk Centre Back
Left Back M. Kerkez J. Gomez Left Back
Midfielder L. Cook R. Gravenberch Midfielder
Midfielder P. Billing A. Mac Allister Midfielder
Midfielder R. Christie C. Jones Midfielder
Wide Forward M. Tavernier C. Gakpo Wide Forward
Striker D. Solanke D. Jota Striker
Wide Forward J. Kluivert L. Diaz Wide Forward

Liverpool to Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

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Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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