Bournemouth vs Newcastle Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips
| Timetable | 17:30 GMT - 11th Nov 23 |
| Prediction | Bournemouth to Win! |
| Odds | 5.00 |
| Bookmaker | TonyBet Sports |
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Struggling Bournemouth host Newcastle on Saturday, 11th November, with the Cherries having won just one of their previous 15 Premier League games since April 30th. They also shipped six goals at the Etihad last weekend, as head coach Andoni Iraola struggles to successfully impart his progressive playing style. However, they did beat Burnley in their last match at the Vitality Stadium, while Newcastle are facing a mounting injury list as they continue to juggle EPL and Champions League matches. But which side do I think will win here, and what exactly do the latest football betting odds tell us?
🏆 Bournemouth vs Newcastle EPL Prediction
Despite both club’s rich histories, Bournemouth and Newcastle have only met each other 17 times in all competitions. The Cherries won the first such game in a November 1963 League Cup clash, but the Magpies hold the historical edge overall having triumphed seven times in total (Bournemouth have won five matches and the remaining five contests have ended in draws).
Newcastle are also unbeaten in eight matches since November 2017, while this season’s EPL statistics show that Eddie Howe’s side boast an xG value of 22.9 (the second-highest in the league). Bournemouth’s xG is less than half of this at 11.4, while only Fulham, Burnley and Sheffield United have scored less than their actual tally of nine goals.
However, Newcastle could be without nine first-team regulars on the south coast, with Callum Wilson the latest player to be stricken with a hamstring strain. What’s more, the Magpies were held home and away by Bournemouth in 2022/23, although Newcastle did manage to edge the Cherries 1-0 in the 4th round of the League Cup on their way to the final last season.
Ultimately, Bournemouth will never have a better chance to beat the Geordie side, especially if they’re without both their first-choice strikers through injury. Injuries will also make it hard for Howe to rotate in any position after a difficult 2-0 defeat to Dortmund in midweek, so I’m tipping Bournemouth to claim a crucial and relatively low-scoring win here.
My Prediction: 🏆 Bournemouth 2 – 1 Newcastle ⚽
💯 Bournemouth vs Newcastle Match Odds
You can access a diverse range of Bournemouth vs Newcastle markets at the best EPL betting sites, from the match winner and BTTS to the over/under on the total number of goals that will be scored in this game. But what are the prices and do they offer value?
Bournemouth vs Newcastle: Match Winner
While Newcastle are odds on to beat Bournemouth this weekend, the pricing doesn’t fully reflect just how stretched Eddie Howe’s squad is. So, while the Cherries’ average price of 4.50 implies just a 22.22% percentage probability of a home win, backing them to triumph may offer more value than initially meets the eye.
| Team |  |  |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth to Win | 4.70 | 4.50 | 4.75 | 4.85 | 4.75 |
| Newcastle to Win | 1.65 | 1.66 | 1.66 | 1.70 | 1.70 |
| Draw | 3.90 | 4.20 | 4.00 | 4.09 | 4.00 |
Bournemouth vs Newcastle: Both Teams To Score
While Bournemouth have only scored 15 goals in 14 matches across all competitions this season, they’ve only failed to hit the back of the net on four occasions. As for Newcastle, only Manchester City have scored more Premier League goals than them in 2023/24, while two of the Magpies' three blanks have been drawn in the UEFA Champions League.
| Yes/No | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.64 | 1.66 | 1.60 | 1.70 | 1.62 |
| No | 2.07 | 2.30 | 2.25 | 2.16 | 2.90 |
Bournemouth vs Newcastle: Over/Under 2.5 Goals
These sides have contested 31 matches in all competitions through 2023/24 so far, scoring a combined total of 96 goals at an impressive rate at 3.09. So, the over /under odds imply a slightly higher probability of over 2.5 goals being scored on the coast, although the potential absence of both Alexander Isak and Callum Wilson through injury for Newcastle could impact your thinking here.
| Under/Over | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 1.64 | 1.61 | 1.60 | 1.69 | 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 2.18 | 2.25 | 2.19 | 2.23 | 2.22 |
✔️ Bournemouth vs Newcastle - Betting Tips
Whichever sportsbook you choose to wager with from Betinireland’s comprehensive bookmaker reviews, you’ll have to navigate the above markets carefully and strive to create value wherever possible. So, here are some betting tips to help you do just that!
- Tip 1: Back Bournemouth to Win: While I understand Newcastle’s status as favourites, the Magpies deepening injury crisis could afford the Cherries a huge competitive advantage at the weekend. Certainly, the Geordies are missing the composure of Sven Botman at the back, while the likely absence of Alexander Isak and Callum Wilson would remove 14 (or 40%) of the team’s 35 goals scored this season. Bournemouth are also in desperate need of a win, so you can get on them to prevail at the exceptional price of 5.00 with TonyBet Sports.
- Tip 2: Back Dominic Solanke as an Any Time Goalscorer: Last season saw former Liverpool striker Dominic Solanke score six EPL goals for Bournemouth, which was his highest ever return in the top flight. However, the rangy and technical forward already has plundered four goals in 10 outings this season, while he was unlucky not to score against Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium last week. What’s more, you can get on Solanke to score any time against Newcastle at the competitive price of 3.25 with TonyBet Sports.
- Tip 3: Back Bournemouth to Win and Both Teams to Score: If you’re fortunate enough to have a free bet on your account, you could deploy this to create greater value in match betting. For example, you can back the Cherries to win and both sides to score at the generous price of 7.00 with Betway, with this market particularly appealing if Bournemouth are able to score first at the Vitality Stadium. After all, this will invite pressure from Newcastle, who even without their star strikers will offer a goal threat throughout the 90 minutes.
1️⃣ Bournemouth Update
As I’ve already touched on, Bournemouth have underwhelming since the summer sacking of manager Gary O’Neil, with his successor Andoni Iraola struggling to impose his aggressive pressing and fluid passing style. This has left the Cherries with seven defeats and just six points in 11 matches since the beginning of the season, with a sole win at fellow strugglers Burnley on October 28th not enough to keep the team out of the relegation zone. Even more worryingly, Bournemouth are now five points behind 16th-place Everton, with the side seemingly engaged in a four-way survival scrap with Sheffield United, Burnley and Luton. However, a win here would go a long way to restoring confidence and optimism at the Vitality Stadium.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Man City 6 Bournemouth 1 | 04.11.23 Premier League |
| Bournemouth 1 Liverpool 2 | 01.11.23 EFL Cup |
| Bournemouth 2 Burnley 1 | 28.10.23 Premier League |
| Bournemouth 1 Wolves 2 | 21.10.23 Premier League |
| Everton 3 Bournemouth 0 | 07.10.23 Premier League |
Interestingly, Bournemouth are without two experienced keepers through injury at present, with first-choice Neto (ankle) and Darren Rudolph (illness) both unavailable for the visit of Newcastle. Defensive midfielder Tyler Adams is also sidelined with a hamstring injury, while no date has been given for the USA international’s return.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Neto | Ankle Injury |
| Darren Rudolph | Illness |
| Tyler Adams | Hamstring Injury |
2️⃣ Newcastle Update
Despite their impressive xG value (and incredible goals to shots-on-target ratio of 0.41), Newcastle have seen their form and consistency dip of late, with the side winning just three of their seven games since October 8th. This sequence has included two Champions League defeats to Borussia Dortmund, while they’ve also dropped points in consecutive EPL away games having drawn 2-2 at West Ham and Wolves respectively). Both of these results came immediately after challenging UCL matches too, so the obvious demands of Champions League football and the Magpies mounting injury list could well give Bournemouth encouragement this weekend.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund 2 Newcastle 0 | 07.11.23 Champions League |
| Newcastle 1 Arsenal 0 | 04.11.23 Premier League |
| Man United 0 Newcastle 3 | 01.11.23 EFL Cup |
| Wolves 2 Newcastle 2 | 28.10.23 Premier League |
| Newcastle 0 Borussia Dortmund1 | 25.10.23 Champions League |
The Geordies injury list now features eight first-team regulars, with Callum Wilson a huge doubt after injuring his hamstring against Dortmund. Fellow forward Alexander Isak is also out with a groin injury, while wingers Jacob Murphy (shoulder) and Harvey Barnes (foot) are long-term absentees too. Centre-back Sven Botman remains out with a knee injury, while young midfielder Elliott Anderson continues to struggle with a back complaint. Matt Targett recently underwent surgery for a hamstring injury incurred in the 3-0 EFL Cup win at Old Trafford, while fellow full-back Dan Burn is likely to miss out with a hip complaint. To compound Eddie Howe’s selection issues, summer signing Sandro Tonali has started a hefty 10-month ban after breaching betting rules during his time in Milan.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Callum Wilson | Hamstring Injury |
| Alexander Isak | Groin Injury |
| Jacob Murphy | Shoulder Injury |
| Elliott Anderson | Back Injury |
| Harvey Barnes | Foot Injury |
| Sven Botman | Knee Injury |
| Dan Burn | Hip Injury |
| Matt Targett | Hamstring Injury |
| Sandro Tonali | Suspended |
👕 Bournemouth vs Newcastle - Potential Lineups
| Pos. | Bournemouth 4-3-3 | Newcastle 4-3-3 | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goalkeeper | I. Radu | N. Pope | Goalkeeper |
| Right Back | M. Aarons | T. Livramento | Right Back |
| Centre Back | C. Mepham | J. Lascelles | Centre Back |
| Centre Back | L. Kelly | F. Schar | Centre Back |
| Left Back | M. Kerkez | K. Trippier | Left Back |
| Midfielder | A. Scott | S. Longstaff | Midfielder |
| Midfielder | P. Billing | B. Guimarães | Midfielder |
| Midfielder | R. Christie | J. Willock | Midfielder |
| Wide Forward | M. Tavernier | M. Almiron | Wide Forward |
| Striker | D. Solanke | A. Gordon | Striker |
| Wide Forward | A. Semenyo | Joelinton | Wide Forward |
✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster
Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.
