Arsenal vs Crystal Palace: Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

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TournamentPremier League
Timetable12:30 GMT, 20th Jan 24
PredictionArsenal to Win!
Odds1.27
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Arsenal to Win!
The best odds
Odds : 1.27
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Odds : 1.26
Bet €100 and win €126 if Arsenal win.
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Odds : 1.25
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Arsenal will entertain Crystal Palace in the midst of a poor run of form, having won just one of their last five Premier League games and been dumped out of the FA Cup by Liverpool. However, the good news for the Gunners is that their weekend opponents Palace are in even worse form, having won once in their previous nine EPL outings since November 4th. Because of this, Arsenal remain the match betting favourites among the best betting sites, but which side do I think will prevail at the Emirates?

🏆 Arsenal vs Crystal Palace EPL Prediction

History is certainly against Crystal Palace, with the Eagles having beaten the Gunners just six times since their first meeting in January 1934. Only three of these victories have come this century too, while just one has been achieved at the Emirates Stadium (on April 21st, 2019).

While some pundits have heralded the £105 million signing of Declan Rice has been transformative for the Gunners this season, it should be noted that they have 10 fewer points and four fewer victories than they did at the same stage in 2022/23. They’ve also scored eight less goals and conceded three more, highlighting growing issues at both ends of the pitch.

In offence, the Gunners have underperformed their collective xG by -0.4 goals, while top league scorer Bukayo Saka has scored just six goals in 20 matches (from an xG of 6.9). Their tally of 38 big chances created is only the ninth highest in the Premier League too, and they’ll undoubtedly have to improve to break down what’s sure to be a compact and well-drilled Palace defence.

Despite their own paltry xG of 24.6 goals, Palace have actually scored in 10 of their last 11 EPL games since October 21st. So, I expect the Eagles to score in a potentially close and tense game, with the Gunners eventually prevailing by the odd goal!

My Prediction: 🏆 Arsenal 2 – 1 Crystal Palace ⚽

💯 Arsenal vs Crystal Palace EPL Match Odds

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Betinireland has taken the time to rank and compare the best EPL betting sites in its bookmaker reviews, with each of these sportsbooks offering an array of Arsenal v Crystal Palace wagering markets. But what are the most popular markets, and how are these currently being priced?

🏅 Arsenal vs Crystal Palace: Match Winner

Despite the Gunners poor run of form, they’re priced at around 1.26 to beat Crystal Palace. This implies a 79.36% probability of a home win. As for Palace, they can be backed at an average price of 10.70, which implies just a 9.34% probability of an Eagles victory at the Emirates!

Team
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Arsenal to Win1.251.271.261.251.25
Crystal Palace to Win11.0010.0010.7011.0010.00
Draw5.505.505.605.505.80

⚽ Arsenal vs Crystal Palace: Both Teams To Score

During the last 18 months, Arsenal have tended to score and concede more at the Emirates than they have on the road. To this end, both teams have scored in 60% of Arsenal’s home matches in 2023/24 (compared to their overall average of 50%). Both sides have also found the net in 60% of Palace’s away games this season, while the Eagles have only failed to score five times in 20 EPL outings.

Yes/No
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LegendPlay-logoLegendPlay-logo
Yes2.252.302.312.202.20
No1.571.621.571.621.62

🥅 Arsenal vs Crystal Palace: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Arsenal and Crystal Palace have played a combined total of 40 Premier League matches this season, with these encounters yielding 108 goals at a rate of 2.70 per game. So, the odds imply a slightly higher probability of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match, especially with Palace providing a more consistent goal threat both home and away in recent times.

Under/Over
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LegendPlay-logoLegendPlay-logo
Over 2.5 Goals1.671.701.691.671.67
Under 2.5 Goals2.052.102.042.102.20

✔️ Arsenal vs Crystal Palace - Betting Tips

Arsenal’s status as overwhelming favourites against Palace means that matched betting may not be the best wagering strategy here. But how else should you deploy your real money and available free bets? Here are some Arsenal v Crystal Palace betting tips to keep in mind!

  • Tip 1: Back Both Teams to Score: The BTTS odds imply a higher probability of both sides not finding the back of the net at the Emirates. However, Palace have scored in 10 of their last 11 EPL games, while the Gunners have only kept three clean sheets in 10 outings at the Emirates in 2023/24. They only kept four clean sheets at home in the league throughout the whole of last season too, so I think there’s significant value in backing both teams to score here at a price of 2.31 with Betiton Sports.
  • Tip 2: Back Arsenal to Win and Both Teams to Score: If you want to create further value in match betting, you could also combine different outcomes that have a high probability of occurring. For example, there’s significant value to be found in backing Arsenal to win and both teams to score, especially at the enhanced price of 3.30 with Dachbet Sports. This wager reflects both the Gunners’ superiority and the threat that Palace pose in transition, despite the potential absence of talented winger Michael Olise.
  • Tip 3: Back Kai Havertz as an Anytime Goalscorer: Kai Havertz has definitely flattered to deceive since his summer move from Chelsea, while he has yet to nail down a consistent role in the Gunners side. His tally of just four Premier League goals this season is also underwhelming, but he has struck twice and contributed two assists in eight career appearances against Palace. So, not only do I expect him to start in attack against the Eagles, but I think there’s value in backing him as an anytime scorer at aprice of 3.35 with LegendPlay Sports.

1️⃣ Arsenal Update

The Gunners are certainly underperforming when compared with the same stage last season, by almost every conceivable metric too. The team’s run of one win in their last five Premier League games (and six in all competitions) is also concerning, especially given Arsenal’s relative lack of goals (they’ve only scored four times during this sequence). Of course, the potential return of Gabriel Jesus from injury could help in this regard, but even the Brazilian has only registered three goals in 15 EPL appearances so far this term and he’s unlikely to start in North London.

Last 5 Games
Arsenal 0
Liverpool 2
07.01.24
FA Cup
Fulham 2
Arsenal 1
31.12.23
Premier League
Arsenal 0
West Ham United 2
28.12.23
Premier League
Liverpool 1
Arsenal 1
23.13.23
Premier League
Arsenal 2
Brighton 0
17.12.23
Premier League

Arsenal could be boosted by the return of Gabriel Jesus (knee injury) and Oleksandr Zinchenko (calf) for the match with Palace, although both could well start from the bench. Thomas Partey (thigh) and Fabio Viera (groin) remain sidelined until the beginning of February, while Jurrien Timber is a long-term absentee as he continues his recovery from a knee injury. Both Mohamed Elneny (Egypt) and Takehiro Tomiyasu (Japan) are away on international duty.

PlayerReason
Gabriel Jesus Knee Injury
Oleksandr Zinchenko Calf Injury
Thomas Partey Thigh Injury
Fabio Viera Groin Injury
Jurrien Timber Knee Injury
Mohamed Elneny International Duty
Takehiro Tomiyasu International Duty

2️⃣ Crystal Palace Update

Palace are 16th in the EPL form table over the course of the last 10 gameweeks, having won just twice and taken a paltry nine points during this period. They’ve won just one of their previous nine league matches overall, while scoring only 14 goals. However, the Eagles have struck in nine of their last 10 Premier League contests, while conceding just 16 goals at a rate of 1.6 per 90. So, they’ll benefit from both a tangible goal threat and defensive organisation at the Emirates, and could prove a tough nut to crack for their opponents. However, the likely absence of Olise with a thigh injury is a huge blow to Roy Hodgson’s men.

Last 5 Games
Everton 1
Crystal Palace 0
17.01.24
FA Cup
Crystal Palace 0
Everton 0
04.01.24
FA Cup
Crystal Palace 3
Brentford 1
30.12.23
Premier League
Chelsea 2
Crystal Palace 1
27.12.23
Premier League
Crystal Palace 1
Brighton 1
21.12.23
Premier League

Olise is unlikely to be rushed back as he recovers from his thigh injury, while defenders Joel Ward (thigh injury) and Rob Holding (ankle) are not expected to return to the fold until the end of January. Youngster Jesurun Rak-Sakyi’s thigh strain will also keep him out of contention for a couple more weeks, while long-term absentee Cheick Doucoure (snapped Achilles tendon) has been ruled out until the pre-season. Seasoned striker Jordan Ayew is also on international duty at the African Cup of Nations.

PlayerReason
Michael Olise Thigh Injury
Joel Ward Thigh Injury
Rob Holding Ankle Injury
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi Thigh Injury
Cheick Doucoure Snapped Achilles Tendon
Jordan Ayew International Duty

👕 Arsenal vs Crystal Palace - Potential Lineups

Pos. Arsenal
4-3-3
Crystal Palace
4-2-3-1
Pos.
Goalkeeper D. Raya D. Henderson Goalkeeper
Right Back B. White N. Clyne Right Back
Centre Back Gabriel J. Andersen Centre Back
Centre Back W. Saliba M. Guehi Centre Back
Left Back J. Kiwor T. Mitchell Left Back
Midfielder Jorginho J. Lerma Midfielder
Midfielder M. Ødegaard C. Richards Midfielder
Midfielder D. Rice W. Hughes Midfielder
Wide Forward B. Saka J. Schlupp Wide Forward
Striker K. Havertz O. Édouard Striker
Wide Forward G. Martinelli E. Eze Wide Forward

Arsenal to Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

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Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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