Arsenal vs Burnley Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

arsenal-v-burnley arsenal-v-burnley
TournamentPremier League
Timetable15:00 GMT - 11th Nov 23
PredictionArsenal to Win!
Odds1.18
BookmakerBetiton
Arsenal to Win!
The best odds
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Betiton
Odds : 1.18
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betway
Odds : 1.20
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Tony​Bet Sports
Odds : 1.21
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arsenal-v-burnley arsenal-v-burnley

You don’t have to be a football betting expert to make Arsenal favourites to beat Burnley, with the Gunners’ fiery 1-0 defeat at Newcastle last time out their first in 11 top-flight games. As for the Clarets, they have a single Premier League win in 11 outings since their return to the top-flight, with a lack of goal threat and their open, expansive playing style causing them issues at both ends of the pitch. But can they take advantage of Arsenal’s European exploits in midweek and snap a four-game losing streak in North London, or will the Gunners rebound from their disappointing defeat in the Northeast?

🏆 Arsenal vs Burnley

Arsenal have played Burnley 113 times since their first meeting way back in February 1896, with the Gunners emerging victorious on 55 occasions. Burnley have a total of 34 wins over the Gunners, although only six of these victories have come since 1965. The Clarets only have one win in their last 18 games against Arsenal in all competitions, although this did come at the Emirates Stadium in December 2020.

The more recent form table makes unpleasant reading for Burnley too, with Vincent Kompany’s side having won just one of their previous 11 top-flight games and conceded 24 goals during this sequence. Conversely, Arsenal have taken 21 points from the previous 30 available to them and lost just one of their last 11 Premier League encounters, although they have also dropped points in three of their last six.

Interestingly, the performance stats show that the Gunners have been less effective offensively than they were last season, with their xG value of 19.2 currently bettered by six Premier League sides (including Chelsea and Brentford). They also have just the seventh highest tally of shot-creating actions per 90 (25.82) this season, although Burnley’s is lower still at 18.09 (only Sheffield United have fared worse according to this metric).

Overall, the Gunners should have too much for a toothless and open Burnley side, who will do well to even breach Arsenal’s defensive line at the Emirates Stadium.

My Prediction: 🏆 Arsenal 3 Burnley 0 ⚽

💯 Arsenal vs Burnley UCL Match Odds

You’ll find plenty of Arsenal vs Burnley wagering markets available at the best Premier League betting sites, including the match winner or outcome, BTTS and the over/under on total goals scored during the 90 minutes. Below, I’ll take a closer look at these markets and compare the ante post odds!

Arsenal vs Burnley: Match Winner

Unsurprisingly, Arsenal are the overwhelming favourites to beat Burnley at the Emirates, and they can be backed at around 1.20 to earn three crucial points here. As for Burnley, they’re priced at around 15.00 to beat the Gunners, with these odds implying a 6.6% probability of this outcome actually occurring.

Team
Arsenal to Win1.151.201.181.211.22
Burnley to Win15.0013.0013.7014.1113.00
Draw7.006.506.907.086.50

Arsenal vs Burnley: Both Teams To Score

Interestingly, Arsenal’s defeat against Newcastle saw them draw a blank in front of goal for the very first time this season, with the Gunners having scored in all of their remaining 17 matches. Conversely, Burnley have failed to score in six of their 14 matches through 2023/24, while they’ve only kept two clean sheets (against Nottingham Forest and Salford in the EFL Cup).

Yes/No
Yes2.072.202.212.192.05
No1.641.651.621.681.80

Arsenal vs Burnley: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

These sides have scored 1.94 and 0.92 goals per game respectively this season, with both arguably lacking a proven and consistent goalscorer in attack. However, the 32 matches contested by Arsenal and Burnley have produced 94 goals at a rate of 2.93 per game, so the odds unsurprisingly imply a higher probability of more than 2.5 goals being scored in this contest!

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals1.471.471.461.511.50
Under 2.5 Goals2.582.602.532.642.60

✔️ Arsenal vs Burnley - Betting Tips

Betinireland’s comprehensive bookmaker reviews can help you to choose a sportsbook before betting on Arsenal vs Burnley, but you’ll also need to be informed and wager strategically if you’re to make the most of your bankroll. Here are some betting tips to help you on your way!

  • Tip 1: Arsenal to Win to Nil: If you’d like to create additional value in match betting, consider backing Arsenal to win to nil at the extended price of 1.83 with LegendPlay Sports. Remember, despite their expansive playing style, Burnley have failed to score in 42.85% of their games this season, while their top scorer Lyle Foster has only scored three times in total. The Gunners have also kept eight clean sheets in all competitions this season, so it’s hard to see Burnley getting any joy offensively here.
  • Tip 2: Back Arsenal to Win With a Handicap of -2.5 Goals Scored: If you’re like me and you expect Arsenal to beat Burnley at a canter, you may want to create further value by handicapping. For example, you can back the Gunners to win with a handicap of -2.5 goals at the competitive price of 2.45 with Dachbet-Sports, while this is arguably reflective of the difference between these two sides. This wager will prove successful so long as Mikel Arteta’s men by three clear goals or more.
  • Tip 3: Back the First Goal to be Scored Between Minutes 21 and 30: If you have a free bet on your account that you’d like to deploy, you could consider predicting the time of the first goal at the Emirates. Interestingly, although Arsenal haven’t scored in the opening 15 minutes of any EPL game this season, they have struck five times (and conceded just one) between minutes 16 and 31. So, ahead of the clash between Arsenal and Burnley, there may be some value in backing the first goal to be scored between minutes 21 and 30 at a price of 5.60 with LegendPlay.

1️⃣ Arsenal Update

While Arsenal saw their 11-match Premier League unbeaten run ended at St James Park last weekend, the side have still only lost three of the 18 games they’ve contested across all competitions through 2023/24. However, their average of 1.94 goals per game this season (and 2.09 in the EPL) is slightly down when compared with the 2022/23 campaign, with the Gunners suddenly lacking a little guile and fluidity in their play. This is further borne out by the fact that the Arsenal have attempted just 13.82 shots per 90 in the EPL so far, with this only the 9th best tally in the league and even lower than Everton (14.45) and Brentford (14.27).

Last 5 Games
Arsenal 2
Sevilla 0
08.11.23
Champions League
Newcastle 1
Arsenal 0
04.11.23
Premier League
West Ham 3
Arsenal 1
01.11.23
EFL Cup
Arsenal 5
Sheffield United 0
28.10.23
Premier League
Sevilla 1
Arsenal 2
24.10.23
Champions League

Dutch defender Jurrien Timber remains Arsenal’s only long-term absentee, as he continues his recovery from a cruciate ligament tear. Otherwise, striker Gabriel Jesus is expected to miss out with a hamstring strain, while influential skipper Martin Odegaard is a doubt as he has missed the previous three matches with an unknown injury.

PlayerReason
Jurrien Timber Cruciate Ligament Tear
Gabriel Jesus Hamstring Injury
Martin Odegaard Unknown Injury

2️⃣ Burnley Update

Not only have Burnley won just one and lost nine of their 11 Premier League games through 2023/24, but their overall tally of three victories in 14 encounters across all competitions has delivered a win-rate of just 21.43%. The Clarets have also shipped 30 goals in total this season, while manager Vincent Kompany will be disappointed in their goals return of just 13. Despite looking to play progressively and on the front foot, Burnley themselves have only attempted 10.36 shots per 90 this season, while they average just 2.91 efforts on target. These stats will need to improve dramatically if Burnley are to be competitive at the Emirates, never mind survive in the Premier League.

Last 5 Games
Burnley 0
Crystal Palace 2
04.11.23
Premier League
Everton 3
Burnley 1
01.11.23
EFL Cup
Bournemouth 2
Burnley 1
28.10.23
Premier League
Brentford 3
Burnley 0
21.10.23
Premier League
Burnley 1
Chelsea 4
07.10.23
Premier League

Burnley will be without centre back Hjalmar Ekdal for the trip to Arsenal, as he continues to struggle with a knee injury. Wingers Jóhann Berg Gudmundsson (muscle) and Nathan Redmond (unknown injury) are also unavailable for selection, while striker Michael Obafemi is a doubt with a hamstring strain and will face a late fitness test.

PlayerReason
Hjalmar Ekdal Knee Injury
Jóhann Berg Gudmundsson Muscle Injury
Nathan Redmond Unknown Injury
Michael Obafemi Hamstring Injury

👕 Arsenal v Burnley - Potential Lineups

Pos. Arsenal
4-3-3
Burnley
4-3-3
Pos.
Goalkeeper D. Raya J. Trafford Goalkeeper
Right Back B. White Vitinho Right Back
Centre Back W. Saliba D. O’Shea Centre Back
Centre Back Gabriel A. Al-Dakhil Centre Back
Left Back T. Tomiyasu C. Taylor Left Back
Midfielder D. Rice S. Berge Midfielder
Midfielder Jorginho J. Cullen Midfielder
Midfielder K. Havertz J. Brownhill Midfielder
Wide Forward B. Saka L. Koleosho Wide Forward
Striker L. Trossard J. Rodriguez Striker
Wide Forward G. Martinelli A. Zaroury Wide Forward
Arsenal to Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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