FC Union Berlin v Real Madrid Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

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TournamentChampions League
Timetable20:00 GMT, 12th Dec 23
PredictionUnion Berlin to Win!
Odds4.25
BookmakerLegend Play Sports
Union Berlin to Win!
The best odds
1.
Legend Play Sports
Odds : 4.25
Bet €100 and win €425 if Union Berlin win.
Bonus:
2.
Tony​Bet Sports
Odds : 4.00
Bet €100 and win €400 if Union Berlin win.
Bonus:
3.
Betiton
Odds : 3.80
Bet €100 and win €380 if Union Berlin win.
Bonus:
€10
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Real Madrid have already secured safe passage to the Champions League round of 16, winning all five of their Group C matches to build an unassailable lead in first place. Only Union Berlin stand between them and a clean sweep of victories, while the struggling Bundesliga outfit must secure their first win in 16 matches (and since August 26th) to have any chance of claiming a place in the knockout stages of the Europa League. But can Berlin even beat a potentially under strength Real Madrid side, and what odds are the best betting sites offering on a win for the Bundesliga outfit?

🏆 FC Union Berlin v Real Madrid UCL Prediction

These two sides are at opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to Champions League experience, with Union Berlin competing in the competition for the first ever time and Los Blancos having won the tournament on 14 occasions in their illustrious history. However, it took a stoppage time winner from Jude Bellingham to help Real win the reverse fixture in gameweek one, in a match where the Bundesliga side showed immense resilience and defensive organisation.

However, this match came relatively early on in Union Berlin winless run, which has now stretched to 16 games in all competitions and become the longest of any side in Europe’s top five leagues. It’s nearly four months since Berlin last won a game, while they average just 35.4% possession during their five UCL encounters so far in 2023/24.

However, they’ll look to remain compact in their defensive shape and cede possession before hitting Real on the counterattack at the Stadion An der Alten Försterei, while their form has improved slightly of late. More specifically, the side has drawn three and lost just one of their last four matches, including successive 1-1 UCL draws at Napoli and at home against Sporting Braga.

While Madrid have produced 37.60 shot-creating actions per 90 and an xG value of 12.1 in this season’s Champions League, they’re likely to rest a number of players with qualification and first place in Group C already assured. Given this and Union Berlin’s pressing need to win (and slight uptick in form), I’m tipping a surprise victory for the home team!

My Prediction: 🏆 Union Berlin 1-0 Real Madrid ⚽

💯 FC Union Berlin v Real Madrid UCL Match Odds

Across all of the sportsbooks featured in Betinireland’s bookmaker reviews, you’ll find a huge range of Union Berlin v Real Madrid betting markets. Some of these are more popular, of course, so here’s my take on the most sought after markets and their latest odds.

🏅 FC Union Berlin v Real Madrid Match Winner

Real Madrid are the clearly favourites to win in Germany, with their average price of 1.80 implying a 55.55% probability of them recording a sixth successive Champions League victory. Union Berlin can be backed to win at around 3.75 and have a 26.66% chance of prevailing at home, but this status as underdogs may create value given the match circumstances.

Team
Union Berlin to Win3.753.753.804.004.25
Real Madrid to Win1.801.781.781.801.83
Draw4.004.003.903.804.00

⚽ FC Union Berlin v Real Madrid: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have found the net in exactly half of Real Madrid’s 20 games in all competitions this season, with Los Blancos keeping 10 clean sheets and drawing just a single blank (during a 0-0 draw with Rayo Vallecano on November 5th). Both sides have found the net in eight of Union Berlin’s 19 matches in 2023/24, but they’ve only kept a single clean sheet and failed to score on a worrying 10 occasions.

Yes/No
Yes1.501.551.471.531.50
No2.402.402.502.402.50

🥅 FC Union Berlin v Real Madrid: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Across all competitions this terms, Union Berlin and Real Madrid have played 39 matches between them. These encounters have witnessed a total of 115 goals, which have been scored at a rate of 2.94 per game. So, it’s no surprise that the odds therefore imply a slightly higher probability of over 2.5 goals being scored in the game.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals1.501.551.501.531.53
Under 2.5 Goals2.382.302.402.402.30

✔️ FC Union Berlin v Real Madrid - Betting Tips

While matched betting may be one way in which you can use any free bets that you have on your account, there are plenty of other markets and strategies to explore. So, here are some alternative betting tips to keep in mind!

  • Tip 1: Back Both Teams Not to Score: Of course, the odds imply a higher probability of both sides scoring in Berlin, but this depends in part on Madrid selecting their usual 11 and dictating the tempo. However, I expect them to rest several first team players in attack, especially with Vinicius Junior injured and Madrid already short of reinforcements in the final third. This could limit their goal threat significantly, so there’s value in backing both sides not to score at a price of 2.50 with Betiton.
  • Tip 2: Back Sheraldo Becker as an Anytime Goalscorer: If Union Berlin are to beat Madrid, it’s likely to be in a low-scoring affair, while forward Sheraldo Becker will surely be one of the team’s primary goal threats. While he’s not particularly prolific, the Suriname international is Berlin’s leading UCL goalscorer following his brace against Braga in gameweek two, while these two goals have come from 11 shots overall and an xG value of 1.3. He’s also quick, athletic and a threat on the counter, while he offers good value as an anytime goalscorer at a price of 9.00 with LegendPlay.
  • Tip 3: Back Union Berlin to Win With Under 2.5 Goals Scored: While this may seem like a risky combination bet, any Union Berlin victory is likely to flow from a solid defensive performance and rapid counterattacking football. This should translate into a low scoring game, while Berlin will undoubtedly be helped by Madrid’s lack of striking options and the likelihood of Los Blancos resting several key players. So, there’s deceptive value in backing Union Berlin to win with under 2.5 goals scored in the game at a price of 9.00 with Betway.

1️⃣ Union Berlin Update

It tells you everything you need to know about Union Berlin’s season that a run of three draws in four games (and no wins) represents a significant upswing in form. This sequence followed a 13-game losing streak in all competitions, which started on September 3rd and wasn’t brought to an end until a plucky 1-1 draw at Napoli on November 8th. However, the team is now looking more resolute and slightly better in front of goal, while new head coach Nenad Bjelica secured a credible 1-1 draw at Braga in UCL gameweek five. So, they’ll be far more confident of beating Madrid and finally ending their 16 game unbeaten run.

Last 5 Games
Braga 1
Union Berlin 1
29.11.23
Champions League
Union Berlin 1
Augsburg 1
25.11.23
Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen 4
Union Berlin 0
12.11.23
Bundesliga
Napoli 1
Union Berlin 1
08.11.23
Champions League
Union Berlin 0
Eintracht Frankfurt 3
04.11.23
Bundesliga

While Sheldon Becker picked up a slight knock in training recently, he’s expected to be fit to start against Real Madrid. However, centre back Danilho Doekhi is likely to miss out with a knock of his own, while his seasoned and influential defensive partner Leonardo Bonucci is suspended after collecting too many cards during the group stages.

PlayerReason
Danilho Doekhi Knock
Leonardo Bonucci Suspended

2️⃣ Real Madrid Update

There remains a sense that Real Madrid have yet to hit top form consistently this season, but despite this, they’ve managed to win 17 (and lose just one) of their 20 matches in all competitions in 2023/24. They’re unbeaten in 13 games overall since a 3-1 defeat to city rivals Atletico on September 24th, while they’ve won all five Champions League matches in Group C and boast one of the tournament’s star players in young Jude Bellingham. The English midfielder has four group stage goals (from an xG value of just 2.1) to his name so far, along with two assists, 6.54 shot-creating actions per 90 and a pass completion rate of 86.3%.

Last 5 Games
Real Madrid 2
Granada 0
02.12.23
La Liga
Real Madrid 4
Napoli 2
29.11.23
Champions League
Cadiz 0
Real Madrid 3
26.11.23
La Liga
Real Madrid 5
Valencia 1
11.11.23
La Liga
Real Madrid 3
Sporting Braga 0
08.11.23
Champions League

Madrid’s existing injury list may encourage them to rest players against Union Berlin, especially with top spot in Group C already secured. After all, Thibaut Courtois and Eder Militão (both cruciate ligament tear), Vinicius Junior (torn thigh muscle) and Eduardo Camavinga (torn lateral knee ligament) all remain long-term absentees, while French midfielder Aurélien Tchouaméni has been ruled out until the New Year with a fatigue fracture. On-loan goalkeeper Kepa Arrizabalaga may also miss out with an adductor injury, so they can ill-afford to lose any more first team players.

PlayerReason
Thibaut Courtois Cruciate Ligament Tear
Eder Militão Cruciate Ligament Tear
Vinicius Junior Torn Thigh Muscle
Eduardo Camavinga Torn Lateral Knee Ligament
Aurélien Tchouaméni Fatigue Fracture
Kepa Arrizabalaga Adductor Injury

👕 FC Union Berlin vs Real Madrid - Potential Lineups

Pos. Union Berlin
3-4-2-1
Real Madrid
4-3-1-2
Pos.
Goalkeeper F. Rønnow A. Lunin Goalkeeper
Right Centre Back P. Jaeckel Lucas Vázquez Right Back
Centre Back R. Knoche Nacho Centre Back
Left Centre Back D. Leite A. Rüdiger Centre Back
Right Wing Back C. Trimmel F. Garcia Left Back
Midfielder J. Haberer F. Valverde Midfielder
Midfielder A. Laïdouni D. Cellabos Midfielder
Left Wing Back R. Gosens N. Paz Midfielder
Attacking Midfielder K. Volland J. Bellingham Attacking Midfielder
Attacking Midfielder S. Becker B. Diaz Striker
Striker K. Behrens Joselu Striker

Union Berlin to Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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