Sevilla v PSV Eindhoven Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

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TournamentChampions League
Timetable17:45 GMT, 29th Nov 23
PredictionPSV to Win!
Odds2.80
BookmakerTonyBet Sports
The best odds
Odds : 2.80
Bet €100 and win €280 if PSV win.
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Odds : 2.75
Bet €100 and win €275 if PSV win.
Bonus
T&C
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Odds : 2.70
Bet €100 and win €270 if PSV win.
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The clash between Sevilla and PSV will prove crucial in Champions League Group B, as a win for PSV will secure the Dutch side a place in the round of 16. Three points for Sevilla at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán will also make them favourites to progress to the knockout stages, as it would put them ahead of PSV by virtue of the two side’s head-to-head record. However, the La Liga outfit will have to contend with a poor home record and a PSV side that continues to sweep all before them in the Eredivisie. Read on to compare the latest odds from the best betting sites and my own take on which team will win.

🏆 Sevilla v PSV Eindhoven UCL Prediction

These two teams have now met three times in UEFA competition, recording one win apiece and sharing the spoils at the Philips Stadion on October 3rd. This 2-2 draw in gameweek two was the first meeting in the Champions League, while it was a see-saw encounter that twice saw the Spanish outfit come from behind.

Sevilla remains winless in the UCL in 2023/24, while they’re among the worst performing teams in the competition when it comes to their xG value of 2.9 (only Newcastle and Celtic fare worse according to this metric). The La Liga side have only produced 13.75 shot-creating actions per 90 in the UCL (only Celtic average less) too, while this figure is also dwarfed by PSV’s 29.00.

PSV have almost doubled Sevilla’s number of attempts on goal (61 vs 32), while they’ve averaged 51.3% possession across their four UCL games so far. So, I expect the confident Dutch outfit to take the game to Sevilla despite being away from home, while Diego Alonso’s men will look to remain compact defensively and create opportunities in transition.

Of course, Alonso took charge of an ailing Sevilla side on October 10th, while he has only overseen one win in seven matches since his appointment. I don’t expect things to get much better here either (especially given Sevilla’s awful home form), and I’m tipping PSV to win and book their place in the UCL round of 16.

My Prediction: 🏆 Sevilla 1 – 2 PSV ⚽

💯 Sevilla v PSV Eindhoven UCL Match Odds

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There are plenty of ways in which you can wager on the UCL clash between Sevilla and PSV, whether you want to back the winner or match outcome, BTTS or the over/under on the total number of goals scored in the game. Below, you’ll find my analysis of the most popular betting markets and their respective odds.

🏅 Sevilla v PSV Eindhoven: Match Winner

Sevilla can be backed to beat PSV at a price of around 2.50, which implies a 40% probability of them achieving this objective. Conversely, the sites featured in Betinireland’s bookmaker reviews are pricing a PSV win at 2.70 on average, affording them a 37.03% chance of success!

Team
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tonybet-sport-logotonybet-sport-logo
LegendPlay-Sports-logoLegendPlay-Sports-logo
Sevilla to Win2.502.402.442.402.50
PSV to Win2.702.702.682.802.75
Draw3.303.403.353.403.40

⚽ Sevilla v PSV Eindhoven: Both Teams To Score

Both sides have scored in 13 of PSV’s 18 matches this season, although the La Liga team have only kept three clean sheets and drawn the same number of blanks in front of goal. As for PSV, both teams have found the back of the net in 10 of their 21 games across all competitions, while the Dutch outfit have kept 10 clean sheets and failed to score only once (during the 4-0 defeat at Arsenal in gameweek one).

Yes/No
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tonybet-sport-logotonybet-sport-logo
LegendPlay-Sports-logoLegendPlay-Sports-logo
Yes1.551.651.581.571.57
No2.302.202.252.252.20

🥅 Sevilla v PSV Eindhoven: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

As PSV had to engage in two qualifying rounds to reach the UCL proper, these sides have contested a total of 39 matches between them across all competitions this season. These encounters have produced an impressive 132 goals at a rate of 3.38 per game, so the odds unsurprisingly imply a higher probability of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match in Seville.

Under/Over
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LegendPlay-Sports-logoLegendPlay-Sports-logo
Over 2.5 Goals1.731.751.721.801.73
Under 2.5 Goals2.001.951.991.952.00

✔️ Sevilla v PSV Eindhoven - Betting Tips

As these teams are relatively evenly matched, you may want to lay any back bet you place on a potential winner as part of your matched betting strategy. This enables you to make good use of any free bets that you have on your account, while covering all potential match outcomes. Below, you’ll find some additional betting tips to help you make the most of your bankroll.

  • Tip 1: Back PSV to Win Outright: Sevilla’s home record makes for torrid reading, with the side having won just two of nine matches at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán in 2023/24. Conversely, PSV have won seven and lost just one of their 10 games on the road in all competitions, while scoring 28 goals across these matches. Because of this and the evenly matched win market odds, there’s obvious value in backing PSV to prevail outright at a price of 2.80 with TonyBet Sports.
  • Tip 2: Back PSV and Both Teams to Score: Despite Sevilla’s struggles at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, they’ve scored in every single home game so far this season. They’ve also drawn four of their home matches and not been beaten by more than a single goal in front of their own fans, so they’re sure to threaten in attack and be competitive against PSV. So, there’s value in backing the Dutch side to win and both teams to score at an enhanced price of 4.75 with Betway.
  • Tip 3: Back PSV to Score First: Sevilla have only scored once in the first 45 minutes of their UCL games in 2023/24, while they’ve fallen behind in three of these four matches. They required two equalisers to draw with a far more proactive PSV side in gameweek two, and I expect the Dutch outfit to start positively in Seville too. So, I’m tipping PSV to score first at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán at a price of 2.10 with Dachbet Sports.

1️⃣ Sevilla Update

Sevilla’s run of just two wins in nine home matches this season offers an insight into their issues and extended run of poor form, which actually dates back to the 2022/23 season. Across all competitions, they’ve only triumphed in three of their 18 matches during the campaign and achieved a paltry win rate of 16.67%. However, this sequence has also included nine draws, while Arsenal remain the only team to beat them by more than a single goal so far. It’s hard to find genuine solace as a Sevilla fan, however, as in the 10 matches since beating lowly Almeria 5-1 in La Liga on September 26th, they’ve only defeated tier six side Club Deportivo Quintanar in the Copa del Rey.

Last 5 Games
Sevilla 1
Real Betis 1
12.11.23
La Liga
Arsenal 2
Sevilla 0
08.11.23
Champions League
Celta Vigo 1
Sevilla 1
04.11.23
La Liga
Club Deportivo Quintanar 0
Sevilla 3
01.11.23
Copa del Rey
Cadiz 2
Sevilla 2
28.10.23
La Liga

Sevilla have some defensive issues ahead of the visit of PSV, with legendary centre back Sergio Ramos expected to miss out with a leg injury. Goalkeeper Ørjan Nyland is also missing with a hip injury, while centre back Marcão remains a long-term absentee with a muscle complaint.

PlayerReason
Sergio Ramos Leg Injury
Ørjan Nyland Hip Injury
Marcão Muscle Injury

2️⃣ PSV Update

In contrast to Sevilla, PSV’s form has been incredible this season, with Arsenal remaining the only side to beat them in the 2023/24 campaign. Overall, they’ve won 80.95% of their games across all competitions (17 out of 21 matches), while drawing on three occasions and plundering 64 goals at a rate of 3.04 per game. While one of their draws came against Sevilla in a 2-2 tie at the Philips Stadion, PSV completely dominated this match, boasting 63% possession and attempting 26 shots to Sevilla’s 10 (eight of which were on target). Given Sevilla’s lack of form and confidence, I expect them to assume a similar level of control at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.

Last 5 Games
PSV 4
PEC Zwolle 0
12.11.23
Eredivisie
PSV 1
Lens 0
08.11.23
Champions League
Heracles 0
PSV 6
04.11.23
Eredivisie
PSV 5
Ajax 2
29.10.23
Eredivisie
Lens 1
PSV 1
24.10.23
Champions League

PSV could be boosted by the return of Noa Lang before the trip to Sevilla, as the winger has now resumed training after a hamstring injury. Centre back Armel Bella-Kotchap is also likely to miss out with a shoulder injury, while fellow defenders Armando Obispo and Mauro Júnior (both knee) remain unavailable too.

PlayerReason
Armel Bella-Kotchap Shoulder Injury
Armando Obispo Knee Injury
Mauro Júnior Knee Injury

👕 Sevilla vs PSV Eindhoven - Potential Lineups

Pos. Sevilla
4-3-3
Inter
4-2-3-1
Pos.
Goalkeeper M. Dmitrović W. Benitez Goalkeeper
Right Back J. Navas J. Teze Right Back
Centre Back L. Bade A. Ramalho Centre Back
Centre Back N. Gudelj O. Boscagli Centre Back
Left Back A. Pedrosa S. Dest Left Back
Midfielder B. Soumaré J. Schouten Midfielder
Midfielder I. Rakitić J. Veerman Midfielder
Midfielder D. Sow G. Til Midfielder
Wide Forward L. Ocampos J. Bakayoko Wide Forward
Striker Y. En-Nesyri L. de Jong Striker
Wide Forward Oliver H. Lozano Wide Forward

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

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Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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