Man City vs Real Madrid Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

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TournamentUEFA Champions League
TimetableWednesday 17th May at 20:00 GMT
PredictionMan City to Win!
OddsMan City to Win @ 1.64
BookmakerPalmslots Sport
Man City to Win!
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Odds : 1.64
Bet €100 and win €164 if Man City wins.
Odds : 1.57
Bet €100 and win €157 if Man City wins.

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Odds : 1.65
Bet €100 and win €165 if Man City wins.
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A staggering 122 matches have now been played in the 2022/23 UEFA Champions League campaign, with the outcome of just three more set to decide who will win this iteration of the tournament. This includes the second leg of the UCL semi-final clash between Manchester City and Real Madrid, which will kick off on Wednesday 17th May and is evenly poised at 1-1 ahead of the second leg.

A great deal rides on the match at the Etihad Stadium, which will either see the home team progress to just their second Champions League final or Los Blancos reach the tournament’s showpiece match for the 18th time. Of course, the tie is also a repeat of last years’ semi-final, which saw 11 goals plundered in total and Madrid prevail thanks to a truly astonishing second leg recovery in Spain.

But will Madrid once again leverage their incredible European experience and pedigree to progress to yet another UCL final, or can the Citizens take a crucial step towards winning their maiden Champions League title? Find out more in my Man City vs Real Madrid prediction and betting guide below.

💯 Man City vs Madrid Champions League Odds

I’ll take a closer look at the Man City vs Real Madrid second leg clash and the key individual duels below, but first I’m going to review the latest betting odds. These include straight match betting and moneyline prices, which currently make Manchester City the heavy favourites to win at the Etihad Stadium. Here are these odds in full.

🏆 Man City vs Madrid Match Winner Odds

Manchester City to Win1.621.641.641.571.651.601.60
Real Madrid to Win5.

⚡ Man City Champions League Semi-Final Leg 1 Preview

The first leg clash between Man City and Real Madrid went as most pundits predicted, with Pep Guardiola’s in-form side dominating possession while Los Blancos sought to strike decisively on the counterattack. This created a tentative, cat-and-mouse encounter where neither team sought to take unnecessary risks, perhaps with last season’s 11-goal semi-final firmly in mind.

The club is also in the midst of a 21-game unbeaten run in all competitions, with City now well placed to win a fifth Premier League title in six years and scheduled to take on bitter rivals United in the FA Cup final on Saturday, 3rd June. The coveted Champions League remains the third leg of what would be an outstanding treble, with Madrid the most likely to scupper such lofty ambitions.

However, City have only won six out of 11 matches in the 2022/23 Champions League, drawing matches against FC Copenhagen, Borussia Dortmund, RB Leipzig, Bayern Munich and Madrid in the semi-final first leg. This perhaps reflects a more mature approach from the Citizens during the campaign and a greater ability to manage games, with the team having arguably suffered as a result of its defensive vulnerabilities in recent years.

City should also have a virtually full-strength squad to choose from for the second leg, although Ilkay Gundogan will miss out through suspension having picked up a yellow card at the Santiago Bernabeu. Left back Benjamin Mendy is also a long-term absentee, with the former Monaco player not included in Manchester City’s UCL squad.

📰 Latest Man City Champions League News

Real Madrid Champions League Semi-Final Leg 1 Preview

It has been a season of frustration so far for Real Madrid, with Los Blancos having won the Copa Del Rey and performed with their usual panache in Europe despite a faltering La Liga campaign. In fact, Los Blancos remains 13 points behind league leaders Barcelona with just five games to play, and the Catalan giants could be crowned champions if results go their way this weekend.

Inconsistency has been at the heart of Madrid’s domestic struggles this season, with the side having won just 11 of 22 league matches since a 3-1 win over Sevilla on October 27th. This run of games has also seen Madrid defeated on seven occasions, with Real Sociedad the latest to beat Los Blancos just before the UCL semi-final first leg.

In the Champions League, Madrid have once again dominated English opposition to reach the UCL semis, with the clash against Manchester City the team’s sixth consecutive knockout tie against sides from the EPL. Liverpool were vanquished 6-2 on aggregate in the round of 16, before a submissive Chelsea team was dispatched with ease during the quarterfinals.

Like the Citizens, Madrid have no fresh injury concerns ahead of the second leg, with left back Ferland Mendy confirmed as the only long-term absentee. He has now missed 12 matches with a muscle injury and no date has been suggested for his return, with the versatile Eduardo Camavinga likely to deputise in his continued absence.

📰 Latest Real Madrid Champions League News

🆚 Man City vs Madrid Key Matchups

While both Pep Guardiola and Carlo Ancelotti have a reputation for tinkering with their teams, I have a pretty good idea of who will feature in the Man City vs Madrid lineups ahead of the semi-final second leg. So, I’m going to take a look at the key individual duels and how they’re likely to influence the outcome of the game!

1️⃣ Erling Haaland vs Antonio Rudiger

City have adopted an increasingly direct approach of late, with a view to fully realizing the considerable strengths of their record breaking 51-goal striker Erling Haaland. This has also seen playmaker Kevin De Bruyne play higher and closer to the Norwegian, with this helping the Belgian to slam home a beautifully struck equaliser in the second half at the Bernabeu.

This is also helping Haaland to get more involved in the game and link play, and while the striker continues to be incredibly efficient with relatively few touches, he’s now a constant threat around which City are able to construct their attacks.

Interestingly, Madrid sprung a surprise by starting Antonio Rudiger in the first leg, with the German’s strong and aggressive defensive style used to counter Haaland’s speed and physical threat. This yielded positive results in the first leg, with Haaland restricted to a couple of half chances and unable to add to his tally of 51 goals in 47 games this season.

This thrilling duel will continue in the second leg, and a similar level of performance from Rudiger will go a long way to helping Madrid win the tie and reach and 18th UCL final.

2️⃣ Kyle Walker vs Vinicius Junior

While City’s unique 3-2-4-1 shape in possession of the ball has been central to their recent unbeaten run, Guardiola made a slight concession by including Kyle Walker in his starting lineup in the first leg. Previously, the Spaniard had suggested that Walker was largely unsuited to playing in this type of formation, but he was included to directly combat Madrid’s pacy wideman Vinicius Junior.

Of course, there was little Walker could do to stop the Brazilian’s thunderous strike that gave Madrid the lead in the first leg, and it was interesting to note that Vinicius Junior drifted inside before collecting a pass from Camavinga and slamming the ball into the top corner.

The Brazilian will have even more scope to drift and threaten from the left-hand side in the second leg, especially with Madrid expected to concede possession and adopt a direct counterattacking game. For Walker’s part, he’ll look to focus on his defensive duties, while also constantly communicating with John Stones to provide cover during swift transitions.

Make no mistake; if Vinicius Junior is afforded space and time in which to impact the game, City could well see their UCL hopes wrecked once again.

3️⃣ Rodri vs Luka Modric

If the first two duels revolve around physical strength, pace and defensive awareness, my final individual battle sees two of the world’s best and most technically gifted midfielders go head-to-head.

Spaniard Rodri has emerged as arguably the world’s best defensive midfielder under the leadership of Pep Guardiola, with his passing ability and outstanding positioning reminiscent of his mentor. He also provided the launchpad for City domination of the ball and frequent stream of attacks in the first leg, and this pattern is unlikely to change during the return match.

With Luka Modric playing an increasingly higher role in Madrid’s side, Rodri was also tasked with keeping an eye on the talented Croatian playmaker and denying him time and space in Madrid’s attacking third. Rodri achieved this with some success, with Los Blancos forced to have less of the ball and Modric unable to create too many chances.

However, the Croatian will continue to seek out space in attacking positions throughout the second leg, so Rodri and John Stones (who is likely to continue in his hybrid midfield role) must remain vigilant in their efforts to keep him quiet.

📈 Man City vs Madrid Head-to-Head Statistics

The first leg Man City vs Real Madrid semi-final tie was the ninth such match between the two teams, all of which have come since 2012.

Both sides have been able to win three apiece during this time, while the remaining three matches (including the first leg) have all ended in draws.

City were also winless in their first four matches against Madrid during the 2012/13 and 2015/16 campaigns, but their more recent run of three victories in the last four games between the two sides will offer them renewed hope ahead of the second leg.

This sequence included consecutive 2-1 wins in the second round of the 2019/20 Champions League campaign, while the Citizens also prevailed 4-3 in the first leg of last year’s UCL semi-final. Although Los Blancos dramatically recovered to win the second leg 3-1 after extra-time, it cannot be denied that Pep Guardiola’s men have nothing to fear from Madrid despite their incredible record on the European stage.

🏆 Man City vs Madrid Prediction – Who will Win?

In predicted a tense encounter and a 1-1 draw during the first leg, and not only because of the evenly matched nature of both sides. In fact, it was likely that both Manchester City and Madrid would have learned the lessons of last season’s rollercoaster semi-final, which saw 11 goals scored and some incredible twists and turns throughout.

I expect a similar cat-and-mouse affair in the second leg at the City of Manchester Stadium, even if one side is able to score an early goal. At the same time, City will have to be constructive when in possession of the ball and remain wary of the space that they leave behind during transitions, while Madrid cannot afford to overcommit in instances where they’re able to raid forward.

The key for both sides will be to impose their game plan on the other and remain in the tie for as long as possible, with Madrid hopeful that their superior experience and continental knowhow will prove telling once the contest reaches its final stages.

However, City have continued to evolve into a mature and seasoned Champions League campaigner, with this perfectly complementing the side’s abundant talent and firepower. Because of this, I’m backing them to edge Madrid in the second leg at the Etihad Stadium and take a giant stride towards winning their first ever UCL crown.

My Prediction: 🏆 Manchester City 2 Real Madrid 1 ⚽

🔍 Man City vs Madrid Betting Tips

There’s a broad range of Man City vs Real Madrid betting markets in play ahead of the second leg, and navigating these can be challenging in pursuit of a profit. So, here are three insightful Man City vs Real Madrid betting tips to help you make more informed selections.

1️⃣ Both Sides Score at 1.68 with PalmSlots Sports

I’ll start with something of a no-brainer, with both Manchester City and Real Madrid boasting considerable firepower and two of the best strikers in the world in Erling Haaland and Karim Benzema respectively.

Los Blancos have also scored in all of their Champions League matches through the 2022/23 campaign, while City have drawn just two blanks in 11 UCL games while scoring a total of 27 goals against their opponents.

So, I’m expecting both sides to score in Manchester, and you can back this outcome at the relatively competitive price of 1.68 with PalmSlots Sports.

This is also higher than the best price of 1.64 for both teams to score in the first leg, with this having much to do with the decisive nature of the return match and potential impact of an early goal.

2️⃣ Back City to Win and Both Sides to Score at 3.00 with TonyBet Sports

Given the likelihood that both teams will score and the relative lack of value when backing City to win through moneyline betting, you may want to consider combining both of these markets in a single wager.

Certainly, betting on Manchester City to win and both sides to score in Manchester unlocks a market leading price of 3.00 with TonyBet Sports, with this increasing your potential returns without overly compromising your level of risk.

Remember, combination betting always unlocks additional value in short-price markets, especially when you’re able to use your knowledge and insight to identify the most likely outcomes in specific events. This rule definitely applies here, although you should also consider reducing your stake slightly to reflect the higher potential returns in play and increased risk-reward ratio.

3️⃣ Bet on Madrid to Win at 5.20 with PalmSlots Sports

If you happen to prefer placing low-stake bets in the pursuit of increased returns, you could also consider backing Madrid to win the second leg. Sure, this goes against my prediction for the Man City vs Real Madrid clash, but Los Blancos’ are certainly competitively priced when you consider their individual quality and recent Champions League record.

With Madrid also priced at 5.20 with PalmSlots Sports and an average of 5.00 across BetinIreland’s recommended sportsbooks, you can back this outcome with a nominal stake and still bank impressive returns.

Ultimately, it’s not often that you get to back a side like Madrid as the underdogs or at such extended odds, especially given the precariously balanced nature of the tie and the fact that neither side has an advantage ahead of the second leg.

Just remember that such betting markets only apply during the 90 minutes, while I’d expect the odds on a Real Madrid win to shorten slightly prior to the second leg and as sportsbooks start to receive an influx of wagers.

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🥇 Man City vs Madrid Path to the Final

Regardless of who wins the second leg of this semi-final clash between Man City and Real Madrid, they’ll progress to the showpiece final on June 10th at the Ataturk Stadium in Istanbul.

Here, they’ll play either AC Milan or Inter, with the latter holding a potentially crucial 2-0 advantage over their bitter city rivals ahead of their own second leg clash on Tuesday, 16th May.

Interestingly, either City or Real Madrid would be the overwhelming outright UEFA Champions League favourites if they ultimately prevail, so there’s a particularly huge incentive for both teams to win the second leg in Manchester and continue their pursuit of greatness in Europe!

❓ Frequently Asked Questions-->Frequently Asked Questions About Man City vs Madrid Prediction

That’s nearly it for my Man City vs Real Madrid Champions League betting prediction! Before I bring it to a close, however, I’m going to answer some of your most frequently asked questions about the Man City vs Madrid second leg.

1️⃣ Man City vs Real Madrid Champions League Semifinal Leg 2 – Who Will Win?

There’s no doubt that City remains Europe’s best side at present, whether you consider the immense quality and firepower that they possess or their current form. Because of this, I’m expecting them to win a tense and tight second leg at the City of Manchester Stadium and ultimately book their place in the 2022/23 UCL final in Turkey.

2️⃣ What’s the best price for Man City to Beat Real Madrid?

As the ante post odds make City the overwhelming favourites to win the second leg, there isn’t a great deal of value in backing them to prevail. In fact, Unibet is offering the best price of 1.65 for Man City to beat Real Madrid at the time of writing, while Los Blancos can be backed at a staggering 5.20 to win with PalmSlots Sports.

3️⃣ What are the Odds for Man City and Real Madrid to Qualify

With Betinireland’s recommended sportsbooks putting such a short price on City to win the second leg in Manchester, it should come as no surprise that Pep Guardiola’s men are also widely tipped to qualify from the tie overall. In fact, City are priced at an average of just 1.30 to reach the 2022/23 Champions League final, whereas you can back Madrid to qualify at around 3.50.

4️⃣ What are the Odds for Both Sides to Win the 2022/23 Champions League?

Manchester City have been the outright favourites to win the 2022/23 UEFA Champions League since the beginning of the tournament, and they’re currently priced at an average of 1.67 to achieve this objective. As for Real Madrid, they’re third favourites to win the tournament behind Inter Milan and can be backed at an average price of 5.00 to prevail.

Man City to Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – UEFA Champions League Betting Expert

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands.His content has also been featured on a number of different sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.

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