TournamentUEFA Champions League
TimetableTuesday 16th May at 20:00 GMT
PredictionBoth Teams to Draw!
OddsBoth Teams to Draw @ 3.40
BookmakerPalm Slots Sports
Both Teams to Draw!
The best odds
Odds : 3.40
Bet €100 and win €340 if both teams draw.
Odds : 3.30
Bet €100 and win €330 if both teams draw.

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Odds : 3.35
Bet €100 and win €335 if both teams draw.

Local derbies are almost always intense and feisty affairs, particularly when each participating side has a great deal to play for. This is definitely the case in the Inter vs AC Milan UCL semi-final clash, which has already seen the former open up a sizable two-goal lead after a clinical display in the first leg.

Inter’s superb meld of defensive organization and aggressive counterattacking was made even more impressive by the fact that they were technically the ‘away’ side in the first leg. Sure, both teams share the iconic San Siro Stadium, but the second leg will see Inter treated as the home side and benefit from a much larger ticket allocation for their fans.

So, AC Milan face an uphill challenge if they’re to continue their pursuit of an eighth Champions League crown, although an early goal for the Rossoneri at the San Siro could change the atmosphere and the nature of the tie significantly.

But can Milan effectively take the game to Inter and force their way back into the tie, or will Inter’s defensive strength and counterattacking efficiency see them pick their rivals off in the second leg? I’ll explore the latest betting odds and team news below, while offering my own Inter vs Milan semi-final prediction at the end.

💯 Inter vs AC Milan Champions League Odds


Unsurprisingly, the Inter vs Milan semi-final odds for the second leg have already been published, with Simone Inzaghi’s men the narrow favourites to win at the San Siro. Here’s a closer look at the very latest Inter vs Milan betting site odds in relation to moneyline and straight match wagering.

🏆 Inter vs AC Milan Match Winner Odds

Unsurprisingly, the Inter vs Milan semi-final odds for the second leg have already been published, with Simone Inzaghi’s men the narrow favourites to win at the San Siro. Here’s a closer look at the very latest Inter vs Milan betting odds in relation to moneyline and straight match wagering.

Inter to Win2.
Milan to Win4.003.803.903.753.903.753.80

⚡ Inter Milan Champions League Semi-Final Leg 1 Preview

While Inter have endured a difficult and largely inconsistent Serie A campaign through 2022/23, the side appears to be hitting top form at just the right time. In fact, Inter have won their last seven games in all competitions, scoring 21 goals in the process while also booking their place in the Coppa Italia final (where they’ll do battle with Fiorentina).

This impressive run of form has also seen Inzaghi’s men move into third in Serie A, with Inter requiring just five more points from their final three matches to book their place in next season’s Champions League. It should also be noted that Inter won the Supercoppa Italiana with a 3-0 victory over Milan in Riyadh back in January, so the club remains in the hunt for a unique cup treble.

In Europe, Inter have certainly had to do things the hard way, initially qualifying from a group that included Bayern Munich and Barcelona. Since then, they’ve eliminated both FC Porto and Benfica (keeping three clean sheets in four matches in the process), before putting Milan to the sword in the semi-final first leg at the San Siro.

Inter should also have a largely fully fit squad to choose from in the return match against Milan. Currently, Brazilian left-back Dalbert remains the only long-term absentee with a crucial ligament injury, although influential centre back Milan Skriniar may also miss out as he continues his recovery from a lumbar vertebrae fracture that has sidelined him since April.

📰 Latest Inter Milan Champions League News

🏅 AC Milan Champions League Semi-Final Leg 1 Preview

It’s fair to say that Milan’s defence of their Serie A title has been relatively disappointing, with their most recent 2-0 defeat to Spezia at the Stadio Alberto Picco leaving them in fifth place and four points behind Lazio in the final Champions League spot. Unless either Inter or Lazio drop points in the coming weeks, winning this season’s UCL may also be Milan’s best route of qualifying for the tournament next time around.

Milan have also had minimal joy in domestic cup competitions, with their aforementioned Supercoppa Italiana defeat further compounded by a round of 16 loss to Torino in the Coppa Italia. The Turin side won 1-0 at the San Siro, with Michel Ndary Adopo’s extra-time goal ultimately proving decisive.

Despite a relatively disappointing goal return in Europe, Milan have at least progressed efficiently through the 2022/23 UEFA Champions League, qualifying from a difficult Group E in second place behind Chelsea. Tottenham Hotspur were then dispatched 1-0 on aggregate in the round of 16, before a Rafael Leão-inspired side saw off the newly crowed Serie A champions Napoli in the last eight.

Worryingly, Milan have been hit with a slew of injuries ahead of the second leg clash with Inter, with both Zlatan Ibrahimovic (calf) and Ismael Bennacer (knee) expected to miss out at the San Siro. The influential Rafael Leão may also miss out with the adductor problems that ruled him out of the first leg, while Alessandro Florenzi, Rade Krunic and winger Junior Messias are all doubtful and will face late fitness tests.

📰 Latest Milan Champions League News

🆚 Inter vs AC Milan Key Matchups

No Inter vs Milan preview of this type would be complete without a look at the most likely lineups and the key duels that will influence the outcome of the second leg. I’ve highlighted three particularly impactful matchups below, while asking how they’ll shape the second leg.

1️⃣ Lautaro Martinez vs Fikayo Tomori

While 25-year-old Inter striker Lautaro Martinez has only scored twice in 11 UCL outings in the 2022/23 campaign, his tally of 24 goals in 51 appearances across all competition is far more indicative of the Argentinian’s quality. He was certainly full of movement and threat in the first leg against Milan, while he provided the perfect foil for the experienced Eden Dzeko in Inter’s forward line.

Once again, Milan’s English centre back Fikayo Tomori will be tasked with nullifying Martinez’s threat at the San Siro, with this job made much harder by his side’s need to chase the game and maintain a relatively high defensive line.

This means that Tomori will have to play aggressively against Martinez and prevent him from spinning into the ample space behind Milan’s defensive line, while also supporting his partner Simon Kjær in his attempts to deal with the more physical threat of Dzeko.

Of course, Dzeko may also look to pull onto the shoulder of Tomori to compete for aerial balls, while the Serbian’s innate ability to occupy more than one centre half could allow Martinez the freedom to roam in wider areas. This may prove problematic in transition, with Milan’s best chance being to sustain their own attacks and prevent Inter from building any form of momentum.

2️⃣ Denzel Dumfries vs Rafael Leão

The enforced absence of Rafael Leão delivered a huge blow to Milan during the first leg, with the powerful Portuguese winger having put Napoli to the sword in the quarterfinals with a devastating display of dribbling, direct running and no little end product. Overall, Leão has scored 13 goals and provided 13 assists in 44 matches so far this season, so I imagine Milan will be willing to take a risk by starting the forward in the second leg even if he isn’t fully fit.

If he does start at the San Siro, Leão will find himself in direct competition with Dutch wing back Denzel Dumfries. This will make for a fascinating duel, as Dumfries is best known for his attacking qualities and may struggle to contain the purposeful and tricky Leão in one-on-one situations.

Because of this, Inter’s right-sided centre back Matteo Darmian will play a key role at the San Siro. The former Manchester United full back has performed superbly in the absence of Milan Skriniar, aided by his outstanding positional awareness, mobility and experience of directly marking pacy wingers.

Darmian will need all of these qualities to help nullify the immense threat of Leão and effectively support Dumfries, while enabling the Dutchman to attack as and when required. Of course, Inter’s shape will also help in this respect, as they can defend deep and with a back five whenever Milan have possession of the ball.

3️⃣ Nicolò Barella vs Sandro Tonali

Inter’s 26-year-old midfielder Nicolò Barella is undoubtedly entering his peak as a professional, having scored eight goals and provided nine assists in 46 action-packed performances for the Nerazzurri this season. He also had chances to add to this in the first leg at the San Siro, particularly when Inter counter attacked dangerously during the second half.

He’ll be influential again in the second leg, both during defensive phases of the game and transitions. One of his main defensive tasks will once again be to help quell the influence of Milan’s talented 22-year-old playmaker Sandro Tonali, who often dictates the tempo of his team’s play but was largely crowded out by Inter’s three-man midfield in the first leg.

Barella will also look to make Tonali work by running beyond him in the midfield, forcing him to track back towards his own goal when Inter do press forward. This will prove highly detrimental to Milan’s chances of getting back into the tie, as they’ll struggle to sustain attacks if Tonali is stifled in the middle of the park.

Once again, this is a key midfield battle that will have a significant bearing on the outcome of the second leg, especially with Inter likely to cede possession and at least some territory in their defence of a 2-0 lead.

📈 Inter vs AC Milan Head-to-Head Statistics

Inter and AC are based in the same city, so it stands to reason that they should have faced off many times throughout the years. In fact, the semi-final first leg was the 236th official match contested between these two sides, the first of which took place in the Italian top-flight on January 10th, 1909 (Milan prevailed 3-2 here).

Inter have been the most successful side since the rivalry began, winning 88 matches in total including three this season. Conversely, Milan have won just 79 of the 236 official games contested, with the remaining 69 ending in draws. Inter have also scored 328 against their bitter rivals, with Milan’s tally a little lower at 310.

The first leg semi-final clash at the San Siro was also the fifth UCL clash between the sides, with Inter recording their first win over Milan in European competition. Another two-legged semi-final in 2002/03 saw two draws as Milan progressed on the away goals, before a 2-0 win for the Rossoneri in the first leg of the 2004/05 quarterfinals set them on their way to another final appearance.

The second leg ended in controversy and was abandoned after 72 minutes when Inter fans hurled missiles onto the pitch after Esteban Cambiasso’s goal was disallowed. Milan had already extended their aggregate lead following Andriy Shevchenko’s first half goal, but the game’s premature ending saw the Rossoneri awarded a 3-0 win by UEFA.

🏆 Inter vs AC Milan Prediction – Who will Win?


You would have been offered excellent odds on there being an Inter vs Milan Champions League 2023 semi-final at the beginning of the season, but both of these sides have showcased outstanding defensive resilience and prowess on the counterattack on their way to the last four. There’s no doubt that both sides look most effective when playing on the break, so Inter will be more than comfortable as they look to defend their 2-0 lead from the first leg.

However, Milan will have to force the pace in their return match with Inter and press a little higher up the pitch, particularly if they’re to sustain attacks and disrupt their opponent’s defensive shape in a way that creates chances. This establishes a clear blueprint for how the game will progress, with a couple of Milan goals the only thing that will remotely change Inter’s approach or game plan.

The issue here is that Milan aren’t the most prolific in front of goal, having scored just 70 in 48 matches across all competitions and 15 in 11 Champions League games (at a paltry rate of 1.36 per game). So, even if the mercurial Rafael Leão is fit to start, it’s hard to imagine Milan scoring enough goals to overturn the tie without being vulnerable to Inter’s exceptional counter attacks.

So, my Inter vs Milan prediction is that the former will largely resist Milan and hold them to a low-scoring draw in the second leg, earning them a first Champions League final appearance since 2010.

My Prediction: 🏆 Inter 1 Milan 1⚽

🔍 Inter vs AC Milan Betting Tips

I’ve prepared some insightful Inter vs Milan betting tips to help you navigate these tactics and make the most of your stake money!

1️⃣ Both Sides to Score at 1.91 With Unibet and Luckster-Sports

The bookies appear to be hedging their bets on whether they think both sides will score (or not) in the second leg between Inter and AC Milan, although the statistics suggest that there may be at least one clean sheet in the San Siro.

However, there’s a pressing need for Milan to chase the game from the first whistle, while Inter are highly adept at defending in a compact block before hitting efficiently on the counterattack. This may mean that the match becomes unusually open and stretched at times, and I’m tipping both sides to score at the San Siro.

An early goal for Inter will certainly force Milan’s hand even further, and I wouldn’t necessarily bet against this given how the Nerazzurri started the first leg against their rivals.

You can bet on both sides to score in the second leg at a market leading price of 1.91 with both Luckster-Sports and Unibet, with this offering relative value given the evenly matched nature of the participating sides.

2️⃣ Back the Draw at 3.40 with PalmSlots Sports

Currently, the bookies are making Inter the ante post favourites to win the second leg, with a Milan victory considered to be the most unlikely outcome according to the latest odds.

However, excellent value can also be found in backing the draw, which is priced as high as 3.40 PalmSlots Sports and an outcome that reflects the evenly matched nature of the two competing sides. A draw would also represent an excellent result for Inter and one that would secure their victory in the tie overall, so they’ll be happy to play for this if Milan are unable to break them down as the game progresses.

If Inter are able to secure a lead and increase their advantage in the second leg, they may also retreat further into their defensive shell, potentially inviting pressure and affording Milan more chances to score. This happened in the second leg of Inter’s quarterfinal against Benfica, which ended 3-3 after the Nerazzurri had opened up an unassailable 5-1 aggregate lead before sitting back and conceding two late goals at the San Siro.

Overall, the draw represents excellent value here, while an average market price of 3.30 doesn’t truly reflect the implied probability of this particular outcome in my opinion.

3️⃣ Inter to Win and Both Sides to Score at 4.60 with William Hill

If you’re struggling to find value in the available match betting markets, you could consider combining two more outcomes in a single wager. Combination betting offers you a unique opportunity to access more competitive odds, especially when you’re able to leverage knowledge or insight to highlight the most viable markets.

For example, Inter are priced at around 2.05 to win the second leg against Milan, while the average odds for both sides to score in the game are around 1.85. However, if you place a combination wager on Inter to win and both sides to score, you can unlock a market leading price of 4.60 with William Hill Sports.

I believe that both of these outcomes are likely too, especially when you consider Inter’s prowess in transition and the fact that Milan simply have to score to stay alive in the tie.

Even if this particular wager isn’t too your liking, don’t be afraid to check out potential combination bets and look to identify value by targeting multiple betting markets simultaneously.

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🥇 Inter vs AC Milan Path to the Final

Inter are the obvious favourites to qualify from their semi-final tie with Milan, with Manchester United still the only team in Champions League history to win a two-legged knockout encounter after losing the ‘home’ leg by two clear goals (in their round of 16 clash with PSG during the 2018/19 season).

Regardless of which side qualifies for the final, they’ll face the winner of the Real Madrid vs Manchester City tie, with the second leg of this encounter taking place at the Etihad Stadium on Wednesday, May 17th.

The final itself is scheduled to take place on June 10th at the Atatürk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul, although reports are suggesting that the venue could change due to political uncertainty and the upcoming presidential elections in Turkey.

Regardless of where the final is played, however, either Inter or AC Milan will start as clear underdogs, with both Real and City considered to be among the very best sides on the continent.

❓ Frequently Asked Questions About My Inter vs AC Milan Prediction

Here are some answers to popular questions!

1️⃣ Inter vs Milan Champions League Leg 2 – Who Will Win?

There’s no doubt that Inter’s 2-0 first leg lead could prove decisive in the final reckoning, but the evenly matched nature of both sides means that either could win the return match at the San Siro. However, I expect the second leg to end in a low-scoring draw after 90 minutes, which will be enough to secure Inter’s safe passage into the showpiece final.

2️⃣ What’s the best price for a draw Between Inter and AC Milan?

If you agree that the draw is the most likely second leg outcome, you can get on this betting market at a competitive price of 3.40 with PalmSlots Sports. A Milan win is similarly priced at around 3.90 and market leading odds of 4.00, while you can bet on an Inter victory at around 2.05 and as high as 2.11 with PalmSlots Sports.

3️⃣ What Price are Inter and Milan to Qualify for the UCL Semi-finals?

Unsurprisingly, Inter are odds on to win the tie and qualify for the Champions League final, with BoyleSports currently offering a price as short as 1.03 on the Nerazzurri achieving this objective. Conversely, Unibet and BoyleSports have priced Milan at 13.00 to reach the final, with this reflective of the mountain that they have to climb in the second leg.

4️⃣ What are the Odds for Both Sides to Win the 2022/23 Champions League?

Inter’s decisive first leg win has also impacted the outright odds for the 2022/23 Champions League. In fact, the Nerazzurri are now second favourites to win the UCL and priced at 4.00 with most sportsbooks, whereas Milan are classed as rank outsiders and can be backed at around 28.00 to lift the Champions League for the eighth time in their history.

Both Teams to Draw!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – UEFA Champions League Betting Expert


Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands.His content has also been featured on a number of different sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.

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