Real Madrid vs Man City Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

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TournamentUEFA Champions League
TimetableTuesday 9th May at 20:00 GMT
PredictionBoth Teams to Draw!
OddsTeams to Draw @ 3.60
BookmakerPalmslots Sport
Both Teams to Draw!
The best odds
Palm​slots Sport
Odds : 3.60
Bet €100 and win €360 if Teams Draw win.
Odds : 3.50
Bet €100 and win €350 if Teams Draw win.

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Odds : 3.60
Bet €100 and win €360 if Teams Draw win.
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The 2022/23 UEFA Champions League is now down to the final four, which includes 14-time winners and defending champions Real Madrid and Manchester City (who will continue their search for a maiden UCL title).

These two behemoths will meet in the first leg of their semi-final clash at the Santiago Bernabeu on Tuesday, May 9th, with Los Blancos entering the tie as slight underdogs despite their undeniable status and pedigree in Europe’s premier competition. What’s more, Madrid eliminated City at the same stage last season, with a thrilling, late comeback at the Bernabeu enabling them to win a tie that their opponents had largely dominated.

However, City appear to be a different proposition with Erling Haaland in attack, with the Norwegian having scored 12 goals in eight UCL appearances this season to become the tournament’s top scorer. But can Haaland fire the Citizens to a win in Spain, or will Madrid leverage their experience and expertise to take a crucial lead into the second leg?

💯 Real Madrid vs Man City Champions League Odds

Before I take a closer look at the teams and offer my own Real Madrid vs Man City prediction, I’m going to review the initial ante post prices. You can certainly find a number of Real Madrid vs Man City odds and betting markets ahead of the first leg, with moneyline wagering particularly popular. But who are the favourites to win in Spain?

🏆 Real Madrid vs Man City Match Winner Odds

Real Madrid to Win3.102.882.883.
Manchester City to Win2.

⚽ Real Madrid vs Man City Odds: Both Teams to Score

Both Madrid and Manchester City have incredible firepower, with Haaland and Los Blancos’ 2022 Ballon d'Or winner Karim Benzema arguably the two best strikers in the world on recent form. Because of this, the bookies expect both teams to score in the Bernabeu, with this outcome priced as short as 1.53 with TonyBet Sports.


🥅 Real Madrid vs Man City Odds: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

You can also wager on whether there will be over or under 2.5 goals scored in the game. City alone have plundered 127 goals in 49 matches across all competitions this season, at a rate of 2.59 per game. While Madrid’s tally of 112 in 50 matches (at a rate of 2.24) is noticeably lower, they’ve been a little more prolific in Europe and have scored 25 goals in just 10 appearances so far.

Over 2.5 Goals1.751.701.751.671.751.701.73
Under 2.5 Goals2.

Real Madrid Champions League Semi-Final Leg 1 Preview

Despite their relatively impressive form in Europe, Real Madrid have endured a challenging and inconsistent season overall. This is reflected by the defence of their La Liga title, as Madrid currently sits 11 points behind bitter rivals Barcelona with just eight games left to play.

The club’s domestic form has certainly been patchy since beating Sevilla 3-1 on October 22nd, with their subsequent 19 La Liga matches producing 10 wins, four draws and five defeats against Rayo Vallecano, Villareal (twice), Mallorca and Barcelona in El Clasico. So, although they managed to eliminate their Catalan rivals to reach the final of the Copa del Rey (where they’ll meet Osasuna), this currently remains their best chance of silverware in 2022/23.

In Europe, Madrid have once again dominated English opposition during the knockout stages of the Champions League, eliminating Liverpool in the round of 16 before overcoming a overcoming a struggling Chelsea side 4-0 on aggregate in the quarterfinals. Interestingly, the semi-final clash with City will be Madrid’s sixth consecutive knockout tie against English opponents in the UCL, as they go in search of a record-extending 18th final in Europe’s biggest tournament.

The really good news for Los Blancos is that they’ll have a largely fully fit squad to choose from ahead of the first leg, with left back Ferland Mendy the only likely absentee. The French defender is continuing his recovery from a muscle injury, but he isn’t expected to be match fit in time for the visit of Pep Guardiola’s men.

📰 Latest Real Madrid Champions League News

⚡ Man City Champions League Semi-Final Leg 1 Preview

As usual, Manchester City have clicked into top gear just in time for the business end of the 2022/23 campaign, as they remain in contention to complete the historic treble of Premier League, UEFA Champions League and FA Cup.

To this end, they recently booked their place in the FA Cup final and secured a showdown with city rivals United following a routine semi-final win over Sheffield United at Wembley. In the EPL, Guardiola’s switch to a fluid 3-2-4-1 formation has also precipitated a run of six successive victories that has seen the side move to within five points of league leaders Arsenal with two games in hand, with the stuttering Gunners set to visit the Etihad in a decisive clash later this week.

City’s form in Europe has also been impressive throughout, as comfortable qualification from Group G was followed by an 8-1 aggregate thrashing RB Leipzig in the round of 16. Erling Haaland equaled Lionel Messi’s record by scoring five goals in a 7-0 win in the second leg, while the Norwegian also got on the scoresheet in both quarter final legs against Bayern Munich as City progressed with a degree of comfort and 4-1 on aggregate.

Like Madrid, Manchester City also have no significant injuries or suspensions ahead of the first leg in Spain. In fact, left back Benjamin Mendy remains the only confirmed absentee at the time of writing, with the defenders’ legal issues meaning that he isn’t registered for City’s UCL squad.

📰 Latest Man City Champions League News

🆚 Real Madrid vs Man City Key Matchups

Both Real and Manchester City boast playing squads that are packed full of talent, so it’s hard to predict each side’s lineup ahead of their first leg, semifinal clash. However, some players are more certain to start than others so long as they’re fit, so here’s a preview of the most seminal Real Madrid vs Man City duels and how they’re likely to impact the game.

1️⃣ Éder Militão vs Erling Haaland

While Manchester City’s dramatic collapse in the second leg of last season’s semi-final against Real Madrid may have asked questions of the team’s defence, it was a slew of missed chances both home and away that ultimately saw the side eliminated.

The coveted signing of Erling Haaland was a more than effective response to this profligacy, with the target man’s haul of 48 goals in just 42 appearances so far this season indicative of the cutting edge he has afforded to City. Remember, this tally also includes 12 goals in eight UCL games, with his immense physicality and efficiency in the final third a threat to any side.

In his way at the Bernabeu will be Madrid centre back and defensive lynchpin Éder Militão, whose own physicality and versatility make him a formidable opponent. He’ll make it his duty to get close to Haaland and deny him space, both preventing him from receiving the ball into feet and spinning into space behind Madrid’s defensive line.

Concentration will be key here, while Madrid will also have to remain defensively compact throughout (and especially in transition). So, Militão will have the added responsibility of organising the defensive line, and ensuring that his teammates help to compress space and stifle Haaland’s creative teammates.

2️⃣ Vinicius Junior vs John Stones

It was Pep Guardiola who first popularized the use of so-called ‘inverted full backs’, who are required to step into central midfield and potentially roam forward when their team is in possession. They then drop into a more conventional full back position during defensive phases of the game, creating a challenging hybrid role that requires footballing intelligence and positional discipline.

In City’s current 3-2-4-1 shape, it’s usually John Stones who performs this role on the right, while on the opposing flank, Nathan Ake tucks in to create a three-man defence when City have possession. Of course, this relatively recent tactical switch has coincided with City’s best form of the season, with the shape seeming to suit the talent at Pep’s disposal.

However, this shape will be tested extensively by Madrid, while Stones will have to be particularly wary of the threat posed by Vinicius Junior. In transition, where Los Blancos often excel, I’d expect Vinicius to play high and wide on the left flank, while Madrid will look to switch play quickly and exploit any space vacated by Stones (if he starts in Spain).

This will be a key tactical battle, and Stones’ ability to nullify Vinicius’s threat will be key if they’re to sustain attacks and get a positive result in Madrid.

3️⃣ Luka Modric vs Rodri

Despite being 37 years old, Luka Modric remains the heartbeat of the Madrid midfield, while he continues to play in a more advanced role in front of Toni Kroos and the dynamic Federico Valverde.

Modric, who has now made 812 club career appearances and 479 for Real Madrid, will certainly pose a threat to City, both when looking to dictate play in the final third and break the midfield lines with late runs.

In his way will be the classy Rodri, who plays a key role in anchoring the Manchester City midfield both in and out of possession. Make no mistake; it will be his job to keep an eye on Modric as he looks to find pockets of space in between midfield and attack, and he’ll need to deny the Croatian the space and time he craves on the ball.

With Valverde known for his powerful runs and dribbles from deep, Rodri will also need support in central areas, both from City’s inverted full back and more advanced midfielders like Kevin De Bruyne.

📈 Real Madrid vs Man City Head-to-Head Statistics

Given Manchester City’s relatively recent arrival at the top table of European football, it should come as no surprise that they’ve only done battle with Real Madrid eight times in their history.

What’s more, the first of these came in the group stage of the 2012/13 campaign, when Madrid won 3-2 in the Bernabéu with two goals in the final five minutes. The two sides then drew 1-1 at the Etihad in matchday five, as Karim Benzema and Sergio Agüero exchanged goals in a dead-rubber that followed City’s failure to qualify for the round of 16.

The teams also contested the semi-final in 2015/16, with Madrid edging a tense two-legged tie 1-0 thanks to Fernando’s 20th-minute own goal in the Bernabéu. City then claimed their first two wins against Los Blancos in the second round of the 2019/20 campaign, as Guardiola’s men prevailed 2-1 in both legs of a tie that was disrupted by the coronavirus pandemic.

Then came last year’s dramatic semi-final, while Real edged 6-5 aggregate despite a 4-3 defeat in the first leg in Manchester. Los Blancos’ 3-1, second leg win in the Bernabéu saw the home side score two late goals to take the tie to extra-time, before a Karim Benzema penalty sealed an unlikely win and laid the foundation for a 14th Champions League triumph!

🏆 Real Madrid vs Man City Prediction – Who will Win?

While neutrals will be hoping for a repeat of the drama that gripped the second leg of last year’s semi-final between these two sides, it’s fair to surmise that both teams will be incredibly wary of the other’s quality this time around.

Madrid are also a relatively pragmatic side under Italian Carlo Ancelotti, and will most likely look to restrict their opponents while hitting them on the breakthrough the pace of Vinicius Junior, Valverde and Rodrygo.

This is also a first leg encounter, so I’m anticipating a relatively tight affair that’s likely to remain evenly poised ahead of the return match in Manchester on May 17th.

But will there actually be a winner in Madrid? I’m not convinced there will be, and my Real Madrid vs Man City first leg prediction is that the match will end in a relatively low-scoring draw. This may be disappointing for some, but it will set up a potentially thrilling return match in the second leg!

My Prediction: ⚽ Real Madrid 1 Manchester City 1 🏆

🔍Real Madrid vs Man City Betting Tips

Regardless of how you intend to wager your hard-earned money ahead of the Real Madrid vs Man City first leg clash, you’ll need to identify the best value odds and betting markets. So, here are a select few Real Madrid vs Man City betting tips to keep in mind!

1️⃣ Both Sides Score at 1.64 with Unibet

While nothing can be taken for granted in a game of this magnitude, one relatively sure-fire bet is that both teams will score at the Bernabéu.

After all, last season’s two-legged semi-final tie produced 11 goals in total, and while I expect a tighter and lower-scoring contest this time around, it’s hard to imagine either side keeping a clean sheet in Spain or Manchester.

After all, in addition to the enduringly prolific Karim Benzema and Erling Haaland, both teams also have some incredible creative talents, including Vinicius Junior and Luka Modric for Madrid and Manchester City’s trio of Jack Grealish, Bernardo Silva and the incomparable Kevin De Bruyne.

You can bet on this outcome at a market high price of 1.64 with Unibet, and while this may not offer significant value at first glance, you could consider increasing your stake amount to optimise your potential returns.

2️⃣ Under 2.5 goals at 2.08 with Unibet

Unsurprisingly, the bookies’ ante post odds suggest that over 2.5 goals will be scored in the Real Madrid vs Man City first leg clash.

While I certainly wouldn’t rule this out given the attacking quality on show (and depending on the timing of the first goal, of course), I think that there’s better value to be found in wagering on under 2.5 goals being scored in 90 minutes at the Bernabéu.

After all, while both teams scored have scored at a rate of 2.5 goals per game or more in this season’s Champions League, they also have excellent defences and an ability to control games through structured possession. The magnitude of the game is also likely to inspire a degree of caution, and while you’ll probably remember the seven-goal first leg of last season’s semi-final between these two sides, this was inspired by two goals in the first 11 minutes from City.

You can wager on their being under 2.5 goals scored in the game at a price of 2.08 with Unibet, who are offering some genuinely competitive odds across the first leg as a whole.

3️⃣ Back the Draw at a Top Price of 3.60 With PalmSlots Sports and Unibet

A quick glance at the latest Real Madrid vs Man City odds reveal that the draw is the highest-priced outcome ahead of the first leg, and this isn’t uncommon during the latter stages of the UCL.

After all, analysis of the 24 matches contested during the round of 16 and quarterfinals in 2022/23 found that just six ended in draws, while none of the two-legged ties played ended level and went to penalties despite the removal of the away goals’ rule.

Still, your ability to successfully predict drawn matches can unlock significant value in published odds, while independent analysis of the first leg between Real Madrid and Man City suggests that there’s a 27% chance of the match being level after 90 minutes.

Currently, you can bet on the Real Madrid vs Man City first leg to end in a draw at a price of 3.60 with PalmSlots and Unibet, and this could yield a decent return even on a relatively small stake.

🎁 Real Madrid vs Man City Free Bets

Before you stake your hard-earned bankroll on the Real Madrid vs Man City first leg clash, it’s important to check out the very latest free bets and welcome bonuses from Betinireland’s recommended betting sites. I’ve listed 12 such promotions below, while previewing three of the best Real Madrid vs Man City in the current market.

1️⃣ TonyBet Sports– 100% Deposit Match up to €50

As a relative newcomer to the sports betting market in Ireland, TonyBet Sports is a brand that regularly looks to compete with generous welcome offers. Currently, you can receive a 100% first deposit match up to the value of €50, when you make a qualifying deposit of at least €10 and enter the promo code ‘TONY50’. The bonus value must subsequently be wagered 10-times on betting markets of 1.65 or greater, while all qualifying bets must be settled within 30 days.

2️⃣ Ladbrokes– Wager €5 and Earn €20 in Free Bets

Ladbrokes remains one of the best-known betting brands in Ireland, and as a new customer here, you can earn up to €20 in free bets when you place a qualifying wager of €5. This must be staked on minimum odds of 1.50, at which point you’ll immediately be credited with four separate €5 free bets that can be deployed across a range of Real Madrid vs Manchester City markets. Once the free bets have been credited, you’ll have seven days in which to use them.

3️⃣ BetVictor– Bet €5 and Earn €30 in Free Bets

BetVictor is running a similar promotion to Ladbrokes, as you can earn up to €30 in free bets here when you place an initial qualifying wager of €5 or more. The qualifying bet must be placed on outcomes with odds of 2.00 or greater, while a single line accumulator also counts as long as the cumulative odds are 2.00 or higher. For the qualifying bet to be valid, it must also be made using a debit card!

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🥇 Real Madrid vs Man City Path to the Final

After the semifinal first leg in Spain, Real Madrid and Manchester City will contest the return match in Manchester on Wednesday, May 17th.

Whoever prevails over the course of this two-legged tie will earn a place in the showpiece final on June 10th, with this scheduled to take place at the Ataturk Stadium in Istanbul.

Here, Real Madrid or Man City will do battle with AC or Inter Milan, with the two Serie A giants having booked their place in the last four after overcoming Napoli and Benfica respectively.

Regardless, the winner of the Real Madrid vs Man City tie will be the overwhelming favourites to lift the 2022/23 UEFA Champions League, so if you think that one of these sides is likely to prevail, you should place your outright bet now and before their respective prices shorten considerably!

❓ Frequently Asked Questions-->Frequently Asked Questions About Real Madrid vs Man City Prediction

Now, let’s conclude this Real Madrid vs Man City betting guide by answering some of your most frequently asked questions. These include:

1️⃣ Real Madrid vs Man City Champions League Semifinal Leg 1 – Who Will Win?

This is an incredibly tough match to call, as while City are arguably the best side in Europe at present, Los Blancos retain an incredible affinity with the Champions League and tend to reserve their best performances for the tournament. Because of this, I’m predicting that the first leg between Real Madrid and Man City will end in a relatively low-scoring draw, setting up a thrilling return match at the Etihad.

2️⃣ What’s the best price for the Draw Between Madrid and Man City?

Interestingly, the draw is deemed to be the least likely outcome in the Madrid vs Man City first leg clash, and you can bet on this at a price of 3.60 with both PalmSlots Sports and Unibet. Conversely, you can bet on Real Madrid to win at odds of 3.10 with TonyBet Sports, while City are priced as low as 2.20 to prevail with the same sportsbook.

3️⃣ What are the Odds for Madrid and Man City to Qualify?

There will be just eight days between the first and second legs of the tie between Bayern and Man City, with the latter taking place on Wednesday, April 19th at 20:00 GMT. BT Sport 1 will broadcast the action from the Allianz Arena to its Irish and UK customers, while you may also find that some football betting sites are live streaming the game through their own platforms.

4️⃣ What are the Odds for Both Sides to Win the Champions League?

Unsurprisingly, Manchester City are also odds-on to win their last four tie with Real Madrid and qualify for the final for the second time in their history. In fact, you can back Manchester City to reach the final at average odds of 1.33, while Los Blancos are priced at around 3.25 to achieve the same objective this season.

Both Teams to Draw!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – UEFA Champions League Betting Expert

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands.His content has also been featured on a number of different sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.

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