Milan vs Inter Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

💯 AC Milan vs Inter Champions League Odds

Both AC and Inter play their home games at the San Siro, so the traditional concept of home and away legs doesn’t’ apply in this semi-final tie. However, the early ante post moneyline odds have AC Milan as the narrow favourites ahead of the first leg, at an average price of 2.63 with Betinireland’s recommended betting sites.

🏆 AC Milan vs Inter Match Winner Odds

Market
AC Milan to Win	2.80	2.75	2.80	2.40	2.75	2.63	2.63
Inter to Win	2.87	2.87	2.80	2.70	2.80	2.80	2.75
Draw	3.10	3.16	3.00	3.25	3.15	3.00	3.10

⚽ AC Milan vs Inter Odds: Both Teams to Score

You can also bet on whether or not both sides will score in the Milan vs Inter first leg, with the bookies apparently split on the most likely of these two outcomes. However, these sides are both defensively resolute and tend to adopt conservative playing styles, with this helping both teams to earn three clean sheets in four knockout matches in the 2022/23 Champions League.

Market
Yes	1.83	1.95	1.83	1.87	1.85	1.95	1.91
No	1.91	1.90	1.80	1.80	1.88	1.80	1.80

🥅 AC Milan vs Inter Odds: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Another even money betting market enables you to wager on whether there will be over or under 2.5 goals scored in this game. While the 2022/23 UCL has so far yielded 362 goals 120 matches at a rate of 3.02 per game, Milan have only scored 15 in 10 outings at a rate of 1.5 per game. As for Inter, their goals-per-game ratio is only slightly higher at 1.60 in this season’s Champions League, so the stats hint at a relatively low-scoring first leg at the San Siro.

Market
Over 2.5 Goals	2.35	2.30	2.25	2.15	2.20	2.30	2.25
Under 2.5 Goals	1.57	1.60	1.57	1.62	1.67	1.53	1.60

🏅 AC Milan Champions League Semi-Final Leg 1 Preview

Milan have endured a mixed domestic season in the defence of their Serie A title, while the recent decision to reverse Juventus’ 15-point deduction from earlier in the campaign has plunged the Rossoneri into fourth and the final Champions League place. Interestingly, they’re also scheduled to play both fifth-placed Roma and second-placed Lazio before the semi-final clash with Inter, so the next two weeks will have a key bearing on their 2022/23 campaign.

Remember, Milan also suffered a round of 16 Coppa Italia defeat to Torino back in January, a week before being humbled 3-0 by city rivals Inter in the Supercoppa Italiana at Riyadh’s King Fahd International Stadium. So, they face the very real prospect of going trophyless this campaign, unless they’re able to win the UEFA Champions League.

In Europe, Milan overcame two convincing defeats to Chelsea to qualify as runners-up in Group E, before edging a toothless Tottenham side 1-0 on aggregate in the round of 16. The Rossoneri then delivered a counter attacking masterclass in the quarterfinals against Serie A champions-elect Napoli, winning 1-0 at the San Siro before Olivier Giroud’s goal earned a 1-1 draw and aggregate win in Naples.

While the first leg is still some time away, Milan currently have no serious or significant injury concerns to report. Midfielder Tommaso Pobega will most likely miss out with a recently incurred rib fracture, while veteran striker Zlatan Ibrahimovic remains a doubt with ongoing calf problems. No players are unavailable due to suspension either.

📰 Latest Milan Champions League News

⚡ Inter Milan Champions League Semi-Final Leg 1 Preview

Like Milan, Inter have been adversely affected by the reversal of Juventus’ 15-point deduction, as they’ve tumbled to sixth in Serie A and two points off the top four. They’ve also been incredibly inconsistent domestically in 2022/23, winning 17 but losing 11 of their 31 league games so far (while drawing just three).

More recently, they’ve lost four and won just one of their last six league games, with the only bright spot in April being a Coppa Italia semi-final win over Juventus (the Nerazzurri will play Fiorentina in the final). Of course, Inter have already won a piece of silverware this season too, lifting the Supercoppa Italia after a 3-0 thumping of Milan in Saudi Arabia at the beginning of 2023.

Inter have been a little more consistent in Europe, qualifying from the so-called ‘Group of Death’ in second place and eliminating La Liga giants Barcelona in the process. They then edged Porto 1-0 on aggregate following a defiant defensive display in Portugal in the round of 16 second leg, before producing a similarly clinical display when beating Benfica 2-0 at the Estádio da Luz. While the Eagles subsequently earned a 3-3 draw at the San Siro, Inter were in control throughout and qualified comfortably for the last four.

However, Inter are still likely to be without influential centre back Milan Škriniar for the tie against Milan, with his ongoing back issue having been diagnosed as a lumbar vertebra fracture. He may only just be fit in time for the UCL final if Inter progress from the last four, while fellow central defender Alessandro Fontanarosa is also sidelined with an unknown injury.

📰 Latest Inter Milan Champions League News

🆚 AC Milan vs Inter Key Matchups

We’ll learn about the most likely AC Milan vs Inter lineups as the first leg kick-off draws closer, but some players are almost certain to start as long as they’re fit. So, here’s a look at the key duels that are likely to determine the outcome of the game!

1️⃣ Rafael Leão vs Matteo Darmian

Both Milan and Inter ceded possession throughout their quarterfinal ties with Napoli and Benfica respectively, instead preferring to defend deep and hit on the counterattack. For Milan, the pacy 23-year-old winger Rafael Leão was central to this strategy, as he continually led counters and pushed his opposing full back Giovanni Di Lorenzo back towards his own goal.

Leão’s stunning 70-yard run from deep also led to Olivier Giroud’s crucial goal in the second leg of the quarter-final against Napoli, and there’s no doubt that he’ll look to target the space in behind Inter’s right wing back (the attack-minded Denzel Dumfries) in the first leg at the San Siro.

Inter’s shape certainly offers space for Leão to operate in, and Dumfries will be reliant on his right-sided centre back to close down the Portuguese in wide areas. This is most likely to be the experienced 33-year-old Matteo Darmian, with the former Manchester United defender deputising in the extended absence of Škriniar.

Darmian isn’t renowned for his pace, so Inter will need to be wary and avoid defending with too high a line. However, the Italian international does boast excellent positional sense, and he’ll need this in spades to nullify Leão’s threat throughout the tie.

2️⃣ Simon Kjær vs Lautaro Martínez

Recent history suggests that this first-leg clash will be a cat-and-mouse affair, with both sides having built their European campaigns on defensive organization and effective counter-attacking. Additionally, Inter’s 3-0 thumping of Milan in January’s Supercoppa Italiana saw the Nerazzurri prevail despite having just 34% of the ball and completing a paltry 265 passes (compared to 510).

In this game, Inter performed with the same resilience and counter-attacking efficiency that was on show against Benfica in the UCL quarterfinals, with Argentine striker Lautaro Martinez particularly impressive alongside partner Edin Dzeko.

He may also be a thorn in Milan’s side in the semi-final first leg, while potentially targeting the Rossoneri’s 34-year-old Danish centre back Simon Kjær. More specifically, he’ll look to isolate Kjær and threaten the space in behind him during transitions, which could also encourage Milan to adopt a deeper defensive line.

For his part, Kjær will need to be supported by a compact and organised defence, while Fikayo Tomori may also have to provide constant cover alongside him.

3️⃣ Sandro Tonali vs Nicolò Barella

Given the tight and evenly matched nature of this UEFA Champions League tie, the midfield is likely to see a key battle for control. At the heart of this will be the talented youngsters Sandro Tonali and Nicolò Barella, both of whom are combative, technically adept and blessed with an eye for goal.

Inter’s Barella has been particularly prolific this season, scoring eight times in 43 games from midfield and netting three times in nine UCL outings in 2022/23. He’ll certainly look to break the midfield lines with his runs when Inter do attack, while exploiting the space caused by the movement of Martinez, Dzeko or Romelu Lukaku.

As for Tonali, he’s a little more defensively minded, and will be tasked by tracking Barella when he breaks forward and dictating the tempo of Milan’s play when they have possession. For his part, Barella will have to press Tonali and deny him space on the ball, with both players blessed with incredible stamina and dynamism.

This will be a fascinating duel to watch in the semi-final, first leg clash between Milan and Inter, and the player who comes out on top will have a big say in determining the outcome of the game.

📈 AC Milan vs Inter Head-to-Head Statistics

The first match between these two bitter rivals took place on January 10th, 1909, with Milan prevailing 3-2 in the Prima Categoria (which was the name given to the Italian top-flight until 2022). Overall, these two giants have met in 235 official matches, with Inter earning a grand total of 87 wins.

Milan have prevailed in 79 such matches, while 69 have also ended in draws. Inter’s relative dominance is also reflected by the fact that they’ve scored 326 goals in these matches, whereas Milan’s tally is a little lower at 310. Some 76 Inter wins have come in Serie A, with Milan also winning 65 times in the Italian top flight.

Interestingly, the two sides have only met four times in the UEFA Champions League, during a decade when Italian teams dominated Europe’s biggest tournament. In the 2002/03 campaign, the teams also met in the UCL semi-final, with Milan prevailing on the away goals’ rule after both legs were drawn (Milan went on to win the final following a penalty shootout against Juventus).

These sides also met in the quarterfinal of the 2004/05 Champions League. Milan once again prevailed in this encounter and by the more comfortable aggregate margin of 5-0, while they also reached the final this season before being beaten by Liverpool on penalties after the infamous ‘Miracle of Istanbul’.

🏆 AC Milan vs Inter Prediction – Who will Win?

Not only do Inter hold a distinct edge in their historic head-to-head with city rivals Inter, but they’ve also had the better of their opponents in 2022/23. In addition to their Supercoppa Italiana win at the beginning of the year, Inter also prevailed 1-0 in a Serie A clash on February 5th. However, Milan won the reverse league fixture back in September, prevailing 3-2 in an exciting game.

Interestingly, this year’s three matches between the two sides have yielded nine goals, highlighting the defensive frailties that both sides have showcased at times in 2022/23. However, it’s such vulnerabilities that have encouraged Milan and Inter to adopt a more defensive approach in Europe, and I expect this to continue in what’s sure to be a tense semi-final.

Remember, the magnitude of this tie is amplified further by the local rivalry between these two sides and their recent lack of success in the Champions League, so neither team will want to lose the contest in the first leg or overcommit in attack.

However, I think Milan have a particular affinity with this tournament, while in Rafael Leão they possess one of Europe’s brightest and best young counterattacking talents. So, my AC Milan vs Inter prediction is that the former will prevail by the odd goal, in what’s likely to be a low-scoring encounter.

🔍 AC Milan vs Inter Betting Tips

As you can see from the ante post Milan vs Inter odds, the bookies are hedging their bets on a number of potential outcomes ahead of the first leg. This makes for a challenging marketplace, but there are a few AC Milan vs Inter betting tips to help you navigate this successfully.

1️⃣ Both Sides Not to Score at 1.91 with TonyBet Sports

The football betting sites are certainly hedging their bets when it comes to even money wagering markets, so you can obtain equal value when backing both sides to score (or not) in the first leg.

Because of this, you can wager on both sides not to score at a relatively competitive price of 1.91 with TonyBet Sports, while the average price across all of Betinireland’s recommended sportsbooks is 1.80.

I certainly expect a tight and low-scoring game in the first leg at the San Siro, while both teams have already kept three clean sheets in four knockout matches during the 2022/23 UEFA Champions League.

So, if either Milan or Inter are able to get their noses in front in the first leg, they’re ideally placed to shut out their opponents and keep a crucial clean sheet ahead of the return match.

2️⃣ Milan to Win to Nil at 4.00 with BoyleSports and Ladbrokes

If you agree with me that this is likely to be a low-scoring game in which the first goal could be seminal, you may also find value in betting on either Milan or Inter to win to nil in the first leg.

In the case of Milan, they’re priced as high as 4.00 to win to nil with both BoyleSports and Ladbrokes, while I’d argue that they’re more likely to achieve this type of result given their performance so far in Europe this season and the threat posed by Rafael Leão and Brahim Diaz on the counter-attack.

It should also be noted that even an early goal in the Milan vs Inter first leg is unlikely to deliver waves of attacks or an open game, as both teams will be focused on remaining competitive in the tie ahead of the return match.

If you’re interested on betting on Inter to win to nil in the first leg, you can get on this market at a price of 4.50 with William Hill.

3️⃣ AC Milan to Win by One Goal at 4.00 with BoyleSports

If you like the idea that Milan will win by the odd goal but remain unconvinced about the total number of goals that are likely to be scored in the game, you could engage in winning margin betting with a number of sportsbooks.

For example, you can bet on Milan to win by one goal at a price of 4.00 with BoyleSports, as you look to pursue a similarly competitive return on your stake while also allowing for a larger number of potential results and both sides to score.

This arguably minimises your risk without compromising on your overall returns when betting on the result of the first leg clash between Milan and Inter, while you can also wager on this market with a relatively small stake.

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🥇 AC Milan vs Inter Path to the Final

After this initial clash, the two teams will return to the San Siro on Tuesday, 16th May to contest the second leg.

The winner of this enthralling tie will subsequently progress to the final at the Ataturk Stadium in Istanbul, where they will face either 14-time Champions League winner Real Madrid or Pep Guardiola’s treble hunting Manchester City team (who are in search of their maiden UCL win).

The final will take place on June 10th, and regardless of which Milan side makes it to the showpiece in Turkey, they will be huge underdogs with the bookmakers and not expected to prevail against their more esteemed opponents.

❓ Frequently Asked Questions About My AC Milan vs Inter Prediction

At this stage, it would only be natural for you to have some outstanding questions about this AC Milan vs Inter UCL semi-final first leg and my prediction. So, I’ve taken the time to answer some of your FAQs below!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – UEFA Champions League Betting Expert

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands.His content has also been featured on a number of different sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.