Red Bull Salzburg v Benfica Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

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TournamentChampions League
Timetable20:00 GMT, 12th Dec 23
PredictionBenfica to Win!
Odds2.38
BookmakerLegend Play Sports
The best odds
Odds : 2.38
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Odds : 2.38
Bet €100 and win €238 if Benfica win.
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€50+ 50 Free Spins
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Odds : 2.30
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Benfica have endured a miserable Champions League campaign in 2023/24, although the point that they earned in a 3-3 draw with Inter in gameweek five means that they retain an outside chance of claiming a Europa League place for the second half of the season. A victory by two clear goals or more at RB Salzburg will help them to achieve this, as this would level the head-to-head record between the two sides (and goal difference) and see Benfica claim third place by virtue of goals scored. But can they rescue their European campaign in Austria, and how are the best betting sites pricing the potential match outcomes here?

🏆 Red Bull Salzburg v Benfica UCL Prediction

The gameweek one clash between Benfica and RB Salzburg saw the Austrian side win 2-0, while this was the first ever UCL encounter between these teams. This match set the tone for Benfica’s Champions League campaign, as they controlled possession and created plenty of chances only to be let down by poor finishing and ongoing defensive frailties.

I even expect a technically proficient Benfica side to control the ball in Austria too, as they’ve averaged 47.4% possession across their five UCL matches (compared to 43.0% for RB Salzburg). However, this may suit an energetic Salzburg side that’s dynamic in transition and has completed the third highest tally of 286 ball recoveries in the tournament.

Benfica are ranked fifth according to this metric with 274 ball recoveries, so the match should be competitive and keenly contested throughout. It’s also interesting to note that both teams have underperformed their xG values in the 2023/24 Champions League (by -2.8 and -0.07 goals respectively), while they’re among the lowest scorers in the tournament’s group stages.

The good news is that Benfica found their shooting boots against Inter in gameweek five, as Joao Mario’s hattrick fired them into a 3-0 first half lead before Inter fought back to secure a point. I expect them to be similarly threatening in Austria, and am tipping them to win by the odds goal in a game that will restore some pride but ultimately see them eliminated from Europe completely.

My Prediction: 🏆 RB Salzburg 1-2 Benfica ⚽

💯 Red Bull Salzburg v Benfica UCL Match Odds

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Once you’ve scanned Betinireland’s detailed bookmaker reviews, you can compare the available RB Salzburg vs Benfica betting markets and odds. I’ll analyse three of the most popular markets below, including the match winner, BTTS and the over/under on total goals scored in the game!

🏅 Red Bull Salzburg v Benfica: Match Winner

The early odds have made Benfica the narrow favourites to beat RB Salzburg. In fact, their average price of 2.38 implies a 42.01% probability of them securing a potentially crucial win, while Salzburg can be backed at around 2.80 to triumph and have a 35.71% of emerging victorious in front of their own fans.

Team
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RB Salzburg to Win2.702.702.712.802.80
Benfica to Win2.302.382.302.252.38
Draw3.603.503.603.603.80

⚽ Red Bull Salzburg v Benfica: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have scored in nine of Benfica’s 21 matches so far this season, and twice in five Champions League outings. While the Eagles have drawn just four blanks this season, three of these have come in the UCL. As for RB Salzburg, both sides have found the back of the net in just eight of their 23 encounters, with the side keeping an impressive 13 clean sheets and failing to score on four occasions.

Yes/No
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Yes1.531.601.541.571.57
No2.382.302.312.382.38

🥅 Red Bull Salzburg v Benfica: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

RB Salzburg and Benfica have contested 44 matches so far in 2023/24, with these yielding 118 goals at a rate of 2.68 per game. This data is reflected in the published odds, which imply a slightly higher probability of over 2.5 goals being scored in the encounter.

Under/Over
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Over 2.5 Goals1.601.671.641.671.62
Under 2.5 Goals2.202.102.102.102.20

✔️ Red Bull Salzburg v Benfica - Betting Tips

If you have one or more free bets on your chosen sportsbook account, you may want to consider engaging in matched betting. This will require you to lay a back bet on one side to beat the other, covering all potential match outcomes while also guaranteeing a profit. But are there are any other worthwhile betting tips to keep in mind? I’ve outlined some below!

  • Tip 1: Back Benfica to Win and Both Teams to Score: While both teams have only scored in eight of RB Salzburg’s 23 matches this season (34.78%), they were clinical when winning 2-0 at the Estádio da Luz in September and have only failed to score on four occasions so far in 2023/24. So, although they have yet to register a UCL goal at home in Group D, I think there’s value in backing Benfica to win and both sides to score at a price of 4.20 with Betway.
  • Tip 2: Back Benfica to Win Outright: There’s also value in backing Benfica to win outright, especially at a price of price of 2.38 with LegendPlay Sports. Sure, they’ve had a miserable UCL campaign in 2023/24 and failed to secure a point in their first four games, but they looked much brighter during their 3-3 draw with Inter in gameweek five and have won seven of their 11 away matches in all competitions.
  • Tip 3: Back Benfica to Win by a Single Goal: Ultimately, Benfica need to win by at least two clear goals to secure third place and qualify for the UEFA Europa League. However, it’s hard to imagine their trip to RB Salzburg being so comfortable, was while the Austrian side have lost four of their 10 matches at the Stadion Wals–Siezenheim this season, only one of these defeats was by more than a single goal. So, I think there’s value in backing Benfica to triumph by a single goal at the enhanced price of 4.50 with Dachbet Sports.

1️⃣ RB Salzburg Update

Salzburg come into this game on the back of a mixed run of form, winning five, drawing two and losing three of their previous 10 matches. One of these wins came on penalties against Hartberg in the Austrian Cup round of 16, while two of their defeats came at home (against LASK in the Bundesliga and Inter in the Champions League). Interestingly, their four home defeats this season have come in their last seven games at the Stadion Wals–Siezenheim, after opening their 2023/24 campaign with three consecutive home wins. This will afford Benfica home of getting the win they so desperately need.

Last 5 Games
RB Salzburg 1
Wolfsberg 0
03.12.23
Austrian Bundesliga
Real Sociedad 0
RB Salzburg 0
29.11.23
Champions League
RB Salzburg 3
Hartberg 2
25.11.23
Austrian Bundesliga
Austria Wien 0
RB Salzburg 0
12.11.23
Austrian Bundesliga
RB Salzburg 0
Inter 1
08.11.23
Champions League

RB Salzburg still have a significant number of injuries and absentees, including defenders Lukas Wallner (torn ankle ligaments), Bryan Okoh (hamstring) and Aleksa Terzic (adductor injury). Centre back Oumar Solet may also miss out with a hamstring injury. Anchor man Lucas Gourna-Douath is a doubt with thigh problems, while 20-year-old midfielder Maurits Kjaergaard is suffering with a shoulder complaint. Striker Fernando is a doubt too after reporting adductor pain during the previous international break.

PlayerReason
Lukas Wallner Torn Ankle Ligaments
Bryan Okoh Hamstring Injury
Aleksa Terzic Adductor Injury
Oumar Solet Hamstring Injury
Lucas Gourna-Douath Thigh Injury
Maurits Kjaergaard Shoulder Injury
Fernando Adductor Pain

2️⃣ Benfica Update

The Eagles are unbeaten in 15 domestic games since August 15th, when Boavista secured a thrilling 3-2 victory at the Estádio do Bessa. This run has seen them win the Supertaça Cândido de Oliveira and move two points behind Sporting Lisbon in second place of the Primeira Liga. However, their UCL form provides a stark contrast to this domestic run of results, with their five Champions League matches yielding four defeats, a single point and just four goals scored. Three of these came in the first half of Benfica’s 3-3 draw at home to Inter last time out, when João Mário plundered a stunning 34-minute hattrick.

Last 5 Games
Moreirense 0
Benfica 0
03.12.23
Primeira Liga
Benfica 3
Inter 3
29.11.23
Champions League
Benfica 2
Famalicao 0
25.11.23
Taca de Portugal
Benfica 2
Sporting Lisbon 1
12.11.23
Primeira Liga
Real Sociedad 3
Benfica 1
08.11.23
Champions League

Unlike Salzburg, Benfica have a largely fully fit squad to choose from ahead of their trip to Austria. However, right back Alexander Bah is out with a foot injury, while experienced winger David Neres (meniscus injury) is also unlikely to be fit in time. French left back Juan Bernat remains sidelined with an adductor injury too, with no timeframe having been put on his return.

PlayerReason
Alexander Bah Foot Injury
David Neres Meniscus Injury
Juan Bernat Adductor Injury

👕 RB Salzburg vs Benfica - Potential Lineups

Pos. RB Salzburg
4-1-2-1
Benfica
4-2-3-1
Pos.
Goalkeeper A. Schlager A. Trubin Goalkeeper
Right Back A. Dedic F. Aursnes Right Back
Centre Back K. Piątkowski A. Silva Centre Back
Centre Back S. Pavlović N. Otamendi Centre Back
Left Back A. Ulmer Morato Left Back
Defensive Midfielder N. Capaldo F. Luis Midfielder
Midfielder M. Bidstrup J. Neves Midfielder
Midfielder A. Forson R. Silva Midfielder
Attacking Midfielder O. Gloukh A. Di Maria Wide Forward
Striker R. Šimić P. Musa Striker
Striker K. Konaté João Mário Wide Forward

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

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Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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