Red Star Belgrade v Manchester City Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

red-star-belgrade-man-city-logo red-star-belgrade-man-city-logo
TournamentChampions League
Timetable17:45 GMT, 13th Dec 23
PredictionMan City to Win!
Odds1.30
Bookmakerbetway
Man City to Win!
The best odds
1.
betway
Odds : 1.30
Bet €100 and win €130 if Man City win.
Bonus:
€50+ 50 Free Spins
2.
Legend Play Sports
Odds : 1.29
Bet €100 and win €129 if Man City win.
Bonus:
3.
Betiton
Odds : 1.26
Bet €100 and win €126 if Man City win.
Bonus:
€10
red-star-belgrade-man-city-logo red-star-belgrade-man-city-logo

This game is the ultimate Champions League dead rubber, with Red Star having already been eliminated from UCL and Europa League competition and City having topped Group G with maximum points from their first five games. However, the match has important context for both sides, as Red Star will be looking to close out their group stage campaign with a morale boosting win and City look to arrest a surprisingly poor run of form. This should make for an intriguing game, but which side do I think will win and how are the potential match outcomes being priced by the top betting sites?

🏆 Red Star Belgrade v Manchester City UCL Prediction

City’s 3-1 win at the Etihad in September was the first ever meeting between these two sides, which makes sense given that the Manchester side have only become regulars at Europe’s top table over the course of the last decade or so.

Despite their side’s stuttering domestic form (City have now gone without a win in four EPL games for the first time since the spring of 2017), they remain the best performing team in the 2023/24 Champions League across multiple metrics. For example, no opponent has produced more than their tally of 45.2 shot-creating actions per 90, while City also boast the highest xG value of 15.7.

They’re the joint top scorers in this season’s Champions League too, having plundered 15 in their five Group G matches at a rate of exactly 3.00 per game. In the form of the outstanding Erling Haaland, City also boasts the joint-top scorer in the 2023/24 campaign, with the Nigerian having struck five goals from an xG value of 5.4.

Typically, City would rest players for their trip to Red Star, especially with top spot in Group G already assured. However, their poor form may encourage Pep Guardiola to field a much stronger starting 11, and I think that this will tip the balance in their favour in what’s sure to be a febrile atmosphere.

My Prediction: 🏆 Red Star Belgrade 1 – 2 Manchester City ⚽

💯 Red Star Belgrade v Manchester City UCL Match Odds

There are plenty of different ways in which you can bet on the clash between Red Star and Manchester City, including picking the match winner, determining whether both teams will score or not and the over/under on total goals scored. But how are these markets being priced by the sportsbooks featured in Betinireland’s bookmaker reviews?

🏅 Red Star Belgrade v Manchester City: Match Winner

City are priced as low as 1.25 to win in Belgrade, which implies an 80% probability of an away win. Conversely, Red Star are priced at around 9.00 to defeat the defending European champions in front of their own fans, which means that they only have an 11.11% chance of winning from a statistical perspective.

Team
Red Star to Win9.508.008.609.0010.00
Man City to Win1.251.301.261.251.29
Draw5.505.505.855.506.00

⚽ Red Star Belgrade v Manchester City: Both Teams To Score

Both sides have found the net in 14 of Red Star’s 23 matches this season, including four of their five UCL games (they drew their first blank in gameweek five during a 2-0 defeat to Young Boys). As for the Citizens, both teams have scored in 15 of their 23 matches, while it’s interesting to note that the side has conceded as many as 17 goals in their first 15 EPL games for the first time since 2009/10.

Yes/No
Yes1.751.781.781.711.82
No1.952.001.931.912.00

🥅 Red Star Belgrade v Manchester City: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Across all competitions in 2023/24, Red Star and Manchester City have contested 46 matches between them. These have produced a total of 159 goals at a rate of 3.45 per game, so it’s little wonder that the odds imply a much higher probability of over 2.5 goals being scored in the contest!

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals1.401.431.411.401.44
Under 2.5 Goals2.632.702.672.752.63

✔️ Red Star Belgrade v Manchester City - Betting Tips

Matched betting isn’t necessarily the most appropriate use of your free bets in this instance, due to the nature of the competing sides. So, I’ve prepared some betting tips below to help you make the most of the available markets!

  • Tip 1: Back Man City to Win and Both Teams to Score: City are the clear favourites to beat Red Star in Belgrade. However, even if Guardiola picks a relatively strong side, he’s likely to rest at least one or two players, which will afford Red Star a chance to shine in transition (remember that they scored in the reverse fixture at the Etihad in gameweek one). So, I think there’s value in backing City to win and both teams to score at a price of 2.60 with Dachbet Sports.
  • Tip 2: Back Both Teams to Score in the Second Half: Incredibly, City have been slow starters in this season’s tournament, scoring 12 of their 15 group stage goals in the second half of fixtures. 11 of the 17 goals in Red Star’s UCL Group G matches have also come in the second half, while this game may take time to warm up as there’s so little on the line. So, I think there’s genuine value in backing both teams to score in the second 45 at a price of 3.25 with LegendPlay Sports.
  • Tip 3: Back Erling Haaland to Score First: Erling Haaland has been relatively profligate by his own high standards of late, but he still have five UCL goals for City season from an xG value of 5.4. I expect him to start in Belgrade as City look to recover some kind of form (they also don’t have a like-for-like replacement for the Norwegian in reserve), so you should consider backing him as the game’s first goalscorer at a price of 3.20 with TonyBet Sports.

1️⃣ Red Star Belgrade Update

Interestingly, Red Star have a higher win percentage than Man City in all competitions this season (65.22 vs 60.87). In fact, they have won 15 of their 23 matches and been beaten on just six occasions through 2023/24, with four of these defeats coming in five UCL outings. So, the side has arguably been overmatched in Group G, while it should be noted that despite opening the scoring at the Etihad back in September, they conceded an incredible 37 attempts on their goal (16 of which were on target) and retained just 24% of the ball. So, I expect City to exert a similar level of dominance this time around.

Last 5 Games
Red Star 5
Radnicki Nis 0
03.12.23
Serbian Cup
Napredak 0
Red Star Belgrade 1
03.12.23
Serbian SupaLiga
Young Boys 2
Red Star 0
28.11.23
Champions League
Vojvodina 1
Red Star Belgrade 2
25.11.23
Serbian SupaLiga
Zelenznicar Pancevo 1
Red Star 2
11.11.23
Serbian SupaLiga

At the time of writing, Red Star have no injuries or suspensions affecting their squad. In fact, Italian right winger Filippo Falco is the side’s only absentee, and only because he has been left out of Red Star’s UCL squad.

PlayerReason
Filippo Falco Ineligible

2️⃣ Man City Update

While City have comfortably swept all before them in the UCL, they’re now without a win in four Premier League matches since a 6-1 thrashing of Bournemouth at the beginning of November. This is their longest winless streak in the top flight since the spring of 2017, when they also went four matches without a win between March 8th and April 5th. Domestically speaking, City’s increasingly vulnerable defence has shipped nine goals in the previous four EPL matches, while their tally of 17 conceded in 15 games is their highest since the 2009/10 campaign. Back then, Mark Hughes started the season in charge and City eventually finished fifth and outside the UCL places.

Last 5 Games
Aston Villa 1
Man City 0
06.12.23
Premier League
Man City 3
Spurs 3
03.12.23
Premier League
Man City 3
RB Leipzig 2
28.11.23
Champions League
Man City 1
Liverpool 1
25.11.23
Premier League
Chelsea 4
Man City 4
12.11.23
Premier League

John Stones returned to action in the 1-0 defeat at Villa, while Rodri will also be available after serving a domestic suspension. Jack Grealish is also back in contention after serving a Premier League ban, while Kevin De Bruyne remains sidelined with a partial muscle tear. Reserve keeper Zack Steffen is also continuing his recovery after knee surgery.

PlayerReason
Kevin De Bruyne Partial Muscle Tear
Zack Steffen Knee Surgery

👕 Red Star Belgrade v Manchester City - Potential Lineups

Pos. Red Star Belgrade
4-3-3
Man City
3-2-4-1
Pos.
Goalkeeper O. Glazer Ederson Goalkeeper
Right Back K. Nedeljković K. Walker Right Centre Back
Centre Back N. Djiga R. Dias Centre Back
Centre Back A. Dragovic J. Gvardiol Left Centre Back
Left Back M. Rodic Rodri Defensive Midfielder
Midfielder S. Mijailović R. Lewis Defensive Midfielder
Midfielder M. Stamenic P. Foden Right Midfielder
Midfielder Hwang In-beom M. Nunes Attacking Midfielder
Wide Forward M. Ivanić B. Silva Attacking Midfielder
Striker C. Ndiaye J. Doku Wide Midfielder
Wide Forward O. Bukari E. Haaland Striker

Man City to Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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