Real Madrid v Napoli Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips
| Timetable | 20:00 GMT, 29th Nov 23 |
| Prediction | Real Madrid to Win! |
| Odds | 1.75 |
| Bookmaker | Legend Play Sports |
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14-time Champions League winners Real Madrid have already qualified for the round of 16 in 2023/24, and a point at home against Napoli will ensure that they top Group C. As for last season’s Scudetto winners, they need to win at the Santiago Bernabéu to secure qualification for the knockout stages, although a victory would also leave them with an outside chance of finishing first. In this guide, I’ll take a look at the latest odds being published by the best betting sites, while offering my own prediction on which side will prevail in Spain!
🏆 Real Madrid v Napoli UCL Prediction
These two continental giants have now played each other five times in UEFA competition, with Los Blancos winning four of these encounters and drawing the other in Naples on September 30th, 1987. This sequence includes Madrid’s 3-2 win at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona back in gameweek 2, when goals from Vinicius Junior and Jude Bellingham helped secure a hard-earned three points.
Madrid have also lost just one of their previous 13 home matches in the UCL since 28th September, 2021, when they were stunned in the group stages my Moldovan minnows Sheriff Tiraspol. However, Napoli certainly possess the attacking tools to threaten Madrid in their backyard, having produced 31.50 shot-creating actions per 90 (which is the fourth highest tally in the 2023/24 Champions League).
However, Madrid are averaging 37.75 SCA’s per 90 in the tournament, while their tally of 112 progressive carries is noticeably higher than Napoli’s (87). The sides are evenly matched in terms of possession statistics, with Napoli averaging 57.3% of the ball per 90 compared to 56.3% for Los Blancos.
These stats all hint at a tight and end-to-end encounter, with Madrid likely to shade possession as the home side and Napoli looking to threaten on the counterattack. However, much will depend on the availability of Napoli’s talismanic striker Victor Osimhen (who is recovering from a hamstring injury), and while Madrid have their own list of absentees, I’m tipping them to edge a close game in which both sides score.
My Prediction: 🏆 Real Madrid 2 – 1 Napoli ⚽
💯 Real Madrid v Napoli UCL Match Odds
There are plenty of ways that you can wager on the UCL game between Real Madrid and Napoli, including backing the match winner, both teams to score (or not) and the over/under on total goals scored that will be scored in the game. Here’s an overview of these markets and how they’re currently being priced.
🏅 Real Madrid v Napoli: Match Winner
Across all of the sportsbooks featured in Betinireland’s bookmaker reviews have made Real Madrid the starting favourites to beat Napoli. But what odds can you get on a victory for the Neapolitan outfit?
| Team | .png) |  |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid to Win | 1.73 | 1.73 | 1.71 | 1.73 | 1.75 |
| Napoli to Win | 4.33 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 4.50 | 4.20 |
| Draw | 3.75 | 3.80 | 3.85 | 3.80 | 3.80 |
⚽ Real Madrid v Napoli: Both Teams To Score
Both teams have found the back of the net in 10 of Napoli’s 16 matches in 2023/24, with ‘Gli Azzurri’ keeping five clean sheets and failing to score on two occasions. Interestingly, both sides have scored in just nine of Madrid’s 17 encounters in all competitions, while Los Blancos have kept eight clean sheets and failed to score only once (in a 0-0 draw against Rayo Vallecano in on November 5th).
| Yes/No | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.62 | 1.67 | 1.59 | 1.67 | 1.62 |
| No | 2.15 | 2.20 | 2.22 | 2.20 | 2.20 |
🥅 Real Madrid v Napoli: Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Between them, Real Madrid and Napoli have contested 33 matches in all competitions this season, with these encounters producing 97 goals at a rate of 2.93 per game. As a result, the over/under odds imply a higher probability of more than 2.5 goals being scored in this game, while it should be noted that the reverse fixture in gameweek two produced a five-goal thriller.
| Under/Over | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 1.67 | 1.65 | 1.63 | 1.62 | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 2.10 | 2.10 | 2.13 | 2.15 | 2.10 |
✔️ Real Madrid v Napoli - Betting Tips
Typically, you can use strategies such as matched betting to create value when wagering on football, but this isn’t as effective in instances where a short price favourite exists. So, I’ve detailed some alternative betting tips and strategies ahead of the clash between Real Madrid and Napoli!
- Tip 1: Back Both Teams to Score With Over 2.5 Goals: Combination betting is an excellent way of creating value in match wagering, especially when you’re able to combine outcomes that have a high implied probability of occurring. For example, the contests featuring Real Madrid and Napoli have produced 97 goals at a rate of 2.93 per game in 2023/24, while these sides have scored in 94.11% and 87.5% of their respective matches. So, you can get on both teams to score with over 2.5 goals in the game at an enhanced price of 2.05 with TonyBet Sports.
- Tip 2: Back Real Madrid to Win and Both Teams to Score: On a similar note, you could consider backing Real Madrid to win and both sides to score at the competitive price of 3.30 with Betway. Once again, this combines two likely outcomes with a high implied probability, while also taking into account Madrid’s dominance at home and the attacking threat posed by Napoli in transition.
- Tip 3: Back Both Teams to Score in the Second Half: If you have one or more free bets to deploy, you may want to consider backing both teams to score in the second half at a price of 3.00 with Dachbet Sports. This is a slightly higher risk wager, but Los Blancos have scored and conceded more goals in the second half of their UCL games this season, while the Champions League matches featuring these sides in 2023/24 have yet to see a goal in the first 15 minutes.
1️⃣ Real Madrid Update
Los Blancos secured their place in the UCL round of 16 by completing the double over Braga in gameweek four, while they’ve maintained a 100% record through their Group C matches so far. Overall, they’ve also won 82.35% of their 17 matches this season, earning 32 points out of 39 to sit second in La Liga. In Jude Bellingham, they also have arguably the tournament’s best player so far, with the former Birmingham City midfielder having scored three goals (from an xG value of just 1.8) and assisted another in his three appearances.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Real Madrid 5 Valencia 1 | 11.11.23 La Liga |
| Real Madrid 3 Sporting Braga 0 | 08.11.23 Champions League |
| Real Madrid 0 Rayo Vallecano 0 | 05.11.23 La Liga |
| Barcelona 1 Real Madrid 2 | 28.10.23 La Liga |
| Sporting Braga 1 Real Madrid 2 | 24.10.23 Champions League |
Of course, the precocious Jude Bellingham remains an injury doubt for Los Blancos with a shoulder complaint, but he has already returned to training and should be fit in time for the visit of Napoli. Keeper Kepa Arrizabalaga is also approaching fitness as he recovers from an adductor injury, but this game may come a little too soon for the on-loan Chelsea man. Otherwise, Thibaut Courtois and Éder Militão (both cruciate ligament tear), Vinicius Junior (torn thigh muscle) and Eduardo Camavinga (knee injury) remain long-term absentees, while French midfielder Aurélien Tchouaméni has been ruled out until the New Year with a fatigue fracture.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Kepa Arrizabalaga | Adductor Injury |
| Thibaut Courtois | Cruciate Ligament Tear |
| Éder Militão | Cruciate Ligament Tear |
| Vinicius Junior | Torn Thigh Muscle |
| Eduardo Camavinga | Knee Injury |
| Aurélien Tchouaméni | Fatigue Fracture |
2️⃣ Napoli Update
Napoli’s form has been patchy for much of 2023/24 so far, as they’ve continued to struggle in the aftermath of their historic Scudetto win last season. So, although they now sit fourth in Serie A, they remain 10 points behind league leaders Inter and have won just six of their 12 matches in defence of their title. They’ve won just eight out of 16 games (and lost four) in all competitions this season too, although the good news for the Neapolitans is that they’ve performed significantly better on the road than they have in front of their own fans. In fact, they’ve won six and drawn two of their eight away games in Serie A and the UCL, while they haven’t been beaten on the road since May 14th.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Napoli 0 Empoli 1 | 12.11.23 Serie A |
| Napoli 1 Union Berlin 1 | 08.11.23 Champions League |
| Salernitana 0 Napoli 2 | 04.11.23 Serie A |
| Napoli 2 AC Milan 2 | 29.10.23 Serie A |
| Union Berlin 0 Napoli 1 | 24.10.23 Champions League |
Victor Osimhen continues his rehabilitation after a hamstring injury, and some outlets are reporting that he may be fit to at least make the bench against Madrid. However, his availability will be touch and go, while goalkeeper Alex Meret is also on the cusp of a return following a calf injury. However, left back Mário Rui has been ruled out until late December with his own hamstring strain.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Victor Osimhen | Hamstring Injury |
| Alex Meret | Calf Injury |
| Mário Rui | Hamstring Injury |
👕 Real Madrid vs Napoli- Potential Lineups
| Pos. | Real Madrid 4-3-1-2 | Napoli 4-3-3 | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goalkeeper | A. Lunin | P. Gollini | Goalkeeper |
| Right Back | D. Carvajal | G. Di Lorenzo | Right Back |
| Centre Back | A. Rudiger | A. Rrahmani | Centre Back |
| Centre Back | D. Alaba | L. Østigård | Centre Back |
| Left Back | F. Mendy | M. Olivera | Left Back |
| Midfielder | F. Valverde | A. Zambo Anguissa | Midfielder |
| Midfielder | T. Kroos | S. Lobotka | Midfielder |
| Midfielder | L. Modric | P. Zieliński | Midfielder |
| Attacking Midfielder | J. Bellingham | M. Politano | Wide Forward |
| Striker | Rodrygo | G. Raspadori | Striker |
| Striker | Joselu | K. Kvaratskhelia | Wide Forward |
✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster
Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.
