Milan vs Napoli Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

Milan vs Napoli Prediction banner Milan vs Napoli Prediction banner
TournamentUEFA Champions League
TimetableWednesday 12th of April at 19:00 GMT
PredictionNapoli to Win!
OddsNapoli to Win @ 2.20
BookmakerPalm Slots Sports
The best odds
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Odds : 2.20
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Odds : 2.15
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Milan-vs-Napoli-Prediction-banner-small-version Milan-vs-Napoli-Prediction-banner-small-version

This seasons’ surprise package Napoli have emerged as the second favourites for the 2022/23 Champions League, with a quarterfinal tie against Milan providing the prelude to a potential semi-final clash with Inter or Benfica should they prevail.

The first leg of the AC Milan vs Napoli UCL quarter final will take place on Wednesday, April 12th at the San Siro Stadium, with the runaway Serie A leaders currently 23 points clear of the Rossoneri who are in fourth place. Napoli have an incredible win percentage of 83.33 in 36 games across competition this season too, while this increases to 87.50 in the Champions League.

What’s more, Napoli have already beaten their domestic rivals 2-1 at the San Siro in Serie A this season, with goals from midfielder Matteo Politano and Diego Simeone’s son Giovanni.

With these points in mind, Napoli will undoubtedly kick off the UCL quarter final as favourites, both to win the first leg and the tie overall. But seven-time Champions League winners Milan have a unique heritage in this competition, and they’re more than capable of upsetting the Champions League odds and reaching their first semi-final since last winning the tournament in 2007. Read on for my Milan vs Napoli preview!

💯 Milan vs Napoli Champions League Odds

Unsurprisingly, Napoli are the clear favourites to beat Milan in the first leg at the San Siro, and I’ve listed the latest moneyline odds below. However, there are plenty of other Milan vs Napoli odds and betting markets to keep in mind, including backing both sides to score (or not) and the over/under market for the total number of goals scored in the game.

🏆 Milan vs Napoli Odds: Match Winner

Market
Milan to Win3.403.103.363.303.153.203.25
Napoli to Win2.302.202.282.152.352.252.25
Draw3.203.203.403.103.403.203.25

⚽ Milan vs Napoli Odds: Both Teams to Score

When wagering on both sides to score (or not) in the quarterfinal first leg clash between Milan and Napoli, you’re entering into an even money market that can offer exceptional value. Here are the latest odds on whether both sides will score at the San Siro.

Market
Yes1.831.751.841.731.881.801.85
No2.002.012.002.001.851.801.85

🥅 Milan vs Napoli Odds: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

If you engage in totals wagering in relation to Milan vs Napoli, you can also bet on whether there will be over or under 2.5 goals in the first leg clash. This is yet another even money market, and one that becomes increasingly intriguing as the tournament progresses and the competing teams start to adopt a more risk averse approach!

Market
Over 2.5 Goals2.112.052.091.952.152.052.05
Under 2.5 Goals1.791.701.701.751.701.701.70

⚡ Milan Champions League Quarter Final Leg 1 Preview

After scaling the heights domestically and winning their first Scudetto in a decade last season, Milan have endured a largely frustrating campaign this time around. To this end, they remain fourth in Serie A and a whopping 23 points behind UCL quarterfinal opponents Napoli, as they scrap with Atlanta, Roma and city rivals Inter for a place in next years’ Champions League.

Milan’s form has also tailed off dramatically following the FIFA World Cup, with the Rossoneri winning just four of 12 Serie A matches since January 4th. They’ve shipped 21 goals in this disappointing sequence too, while January also saw the side knocked out of the Coppa Italia by Torino in the round of 16 and defeated 3-0 by Inter in the Supercoppa Italiana.

Milan’s route to the UCL last eight has also been far from eye-catching, as they only qualified from Group E after comfortably losing both matches to Chelsea by margins of 3-0 and 2-0 respectively. They subsequently finished second after consecutive 4-0 wins over Dinamo Zagreb and Red Bull Salzburg, while a toothless Tottenham Hotspur were dispatched 1-0 on aggregate in the round of 16 following a narrow first triumph at the San Siro as I have predicted.

Milan also experienced a mini injury crisis over the course of their two-legged round of 16 clash against Spurs, but this has now eased considerably. In fact, Brazilian winger Junior Messias is the only likely absentee at the time of writing, as the 31-year-old continues his recover from a biceps femoris muscle injury.

📰 Latest Milan Champions League News

🏅 Napoli Champions League Quarter Final Leg 1 Preview

I’ve already touched on Napoli’s exceptional season in the introduction, with the ‘Little Donkeys’ having won a staggering 30 of the 36 matches they’ve contested so far. This run has included 23 wins in just 27 Serie A matches, with Napoli now 19 points ahead of second place Lazio and 21 points clear of Inter in third.

Overall, Napoli have won 21 of their last 23 league matches, only experiencing defeats to Inter (ironically at the San Siro in January) and Lazio at the beginning of March during this sequence. Incredibly, this has left Napoli needing just 15 points from their final 11 matches to win their third Scudetto and first since a Diego Maradona-inspired side achieved the same objective in 1989/90.

Napoli have also been one of the most impressive teams in this years’ UCL, as they’ve won seven of their eight matches while plundering 25 goals and conceding just six. In fact, their only defeat came in a dead rubber against Liverpool at Anfield after they’d already secured qualification to the round of 16, while they comprehensively overcame Bundesliga outfit Eintracht Frankfurt 5-0 on aggregate in a one-sided second round tie as I had correctly predicted.

In terms of absentees, defensive midfielder Diego Demme may miss out with muscle fatigue, while second string keeper Davide Marfella is a doubt as he continues to struggle with tendon irritation. However, striker Giacomo Raspadori is expected to have recovered from a hamstring strain in time for the game, while right back Bartosz Bereszynski may also be available after a knee injury.

📰 Latest Napoli Champions League News

🆚 Milan vs Napoli Key Matchups

These two Serie A rivals know each other well, so there should be no surprises when the Milan vs Napoli lineups are announced ahead of the first leg kick off. But what are the key individual duels that are most likely to define the outcome of the game?

1️⃣ Fikayo Tomori vs Victor Osimhen

While Milan’s cultured 25-year-old centre back Fikayo Tomori continues to be overlooked for England duty by Gareth Southgate, he regularly excels at the heart of the Milan defence.

However, his own personal form has dipped in line with the Milan side of late, with Tomori making a number of mistakes as the Rossoneri shipped five goals at home to Sassuolo at the end of January just five days after losing 4-0 to Lazio in Rome.

Make no mistake; Tomori will need to be at his very best against free-scoring Napoli, who have scored a total of 91 goals in all competitions. Powerful Nigerian striker Victor Osimhen has scored 25 of these in just 29 appearances, while he now has 53 goals in 91 outings for Napoli since his debut in 2020.

It’s possible that Milan could switch to a back three against Napoli, just as they did in the recent Serie A defeat against Udinese. This would afford Tomori additional support as he goes head-to-head with Osimhen, while the Rossoneri may also adopt a relatively deep defensive line and deny the striker space in behind.

2️⃣ Rafael Leão vs Giovanni Di Lorenzo

If Milan do adopt a 3-4-2-1 formation and look to play on the counterattack at the San Siro, Portuguese starlet Rafael Leão is almost certain to play in one of the two deep-lying forward positions.

He will also be Milan’s most potent threat, especially when he drifts left and looks to exploit left by Napoli’s marauding right back Giovanni Di Lorenzo.

The 23-year-old forward definitely has the tools and ability to hurt Napoli, especially given the latter’s penchant for pressing high and leaving space in behind their defensive line.

In this respect, Milan’s potential deployment of wing backs could prove crucial, as left-sided defender Fodé Ballo-Touré may occupy the wide areas and go man-for-man against Di Lorenzo. This will afford space in which Leão can operate, unless Napoli can use their press to sustain attacks and limit the supply line to Milan’s forwards.

3️⃣ Ismaël Bennacer vs Piotr Zieliński

Napoli’s midfield plays a key role in setting the Serie A leaders’ frenetic tempo both in and out of possession, as it combines dynamism and high levels of intensity will skill, creativity and a tangible goal threat. No single player embodies these qualities more than 28-year-old Polish midfielder Piotr Zieliński, who works tirelessly for Napoli and already has seven goals in 36 games this season (including four in eight UCL matches).

He’ll definitely look to drive Napoli’s high press when Milan’s defenders play out from the back, while also getting forward at every opportunity and running beyond the opposition’s defensive line.

In his way will be Milan’s defensive midfielder Ismaël Bennacer, with the 25-year-old Algerian international likely to play a key role in protecting his defensive line and tracking Napoli’s runners (and most importantly Zieliński).

If Bennacer can anchor Milan’s midfield and stem the flow of attacks from Napoli, they’ll have a chance of winning the quarterfinal first leg at the San Siro. However, if Napoli dominate and overwhelm Milan in the final third, Zieliński will make hay with his dynamism and runs from deep.

📈 Milan vs Napoli Head-to-Head Statistics

AC Milan and Napoli have never met in European competition, but these fierce Serie A rivals have played each other 170 times across a number of domestic competitions.

Milan hold an historic advantage over their rivals, having won 68 of these matches since the first contest way back in the 1927/28 season. Conversely, Napoli have won 51 of these meetings, with the exact same number of games ending in draws.

If we look at the sides’ last 32 matches, however, we can see that Napoli have won 13 of these. Conversely, Milan have emerged victorious on just eight occasions, with the remaining 11 games ending in draws. During this sequence, Napoli have outscored Milan by 47 goals to 40, while they defeated their rivals 2-1 at the San Siro in the most recent meeting last September.

Since the beginning of the 2014/15 season, Milan have won just four out of 18 matches against Napoli, so there’s no doubt that the latter will arrive at the San Siro confident of securing a first leg win.

🏆 Milan vs Napoli Prediction – Who will Win?

We have reached my Milan vs Napoli quarters prediction. Napoli have undoubtedly ridden the quest of a wave this season, sweeping all before them in Serie A and the Champions League. They’ve already beaten Milan once this season already too, with their 2-1 win at the San Siro barely reflecting the Neapolitan side’s dominance over their rivals.

Despite this and Milan’s inconsistent performances throughout the 2022/23 campaign, however, there’s no guarantee that the UCL quarterfinal first leg will follow the form. Milan also have a proud heritage in Europe’s premier club competition, winning the tournament seven times and producing some truly memorable teams through the years.

Milan will also be keen to make home advantage count, by at least ensuring that they remain in the tie and don’t allow Napoli to overpower them. This will most likely see them sit a little deeper than usual and look to hurt Napoli in transition, with their opponents highly skilled at pressing high and dominating the space whoever they play.

The question that remains, of course, is can Milan repel Napoli’s feared and relentless attack and make the most of their own chances? I’m not convinced that they can, and while I anticipate a tight game at the San Siro, I expect Napoli to prevail by the odd goal.

⚽ My Milan vs Napoli Prediction: Napoli to Win! Final Score: Milan 1 Napoli 2 🏆

🔍 Milan vs Napoli Betting Tips

Now it’s time for some Milan vs Napoli betting tips, based on the latest odds and how the game is likely to unfold. I’ve provided three such tips which could be utilised at football betting sites should you wish to have a flutter below, which will hopefully help you to place informed wagers and identify the best value betting markets.

1️⃣ Napoli to win at 2.35 with Unibet

While Napoli are the obvious online bookmakers’ favourites to win the quarter final first leg at the San Siro, their status as the away side means that their price is a noticeably longer than it otherwise may have been.

Milan have also only experienced defeat four times in 18 home games in all competitions this season, so it’s little wonder that Napoli are priced as high as 2.35 with Unibet in the current match betting marketplace.

This offers genuine value given Napoli’s superiority and the momentum that they’ll carry into the game, while the team’s 19-point lead at the top of Serie A means that they can prioritise the UEFA Champions League and pursue this with gusto.

Just be sure to place this bet sooner rather than later, as I’d expect Napoli’s price to shorten as the first leg draws closer (especially if the team continues its exceptional form).

2️⃣ Over 2.5 Goals Scored at 2.15 with Unibet

The average goals-per-game ratio in this season’s Champions League is 3.05, but there’s no doubt that goals may be a little harder to come by as the stakes become higher and we get to the business end of the tournament.

The bookies appear to think that below 2.5 goals will be scored in the first leg between Milan and Napoli, probably in anticipation that the home side will play defensively and look to restrict Napoli’s exceptional attack (while also accounting for the incredibly tense nature of knockout football).

However, I cannot see Milan keeping a clean sheet against the Neapolitans, especially given their obvious defensive vulnerabilities and penchant for making individual errors at the back. At the same time, Napoli will leave space for Milan to exploit on the counterattack, and the Rossoneri have the quality to exploit this and trouble the scorers at the San Siro.

So, you may want to consider betting on there being over 2.5 goals scored in this Milan vs Napoli quarter finals odds first leg slot, with this outcome priced at a competitive 2.15 by Unibet.

3️⃣ Napoli to Win and Both Sides to Score at 5.00 with William Hill

If, like me, you think that Napoli will win but that both sides will retain a significant goal threat during the first leg, you may want to consider combining these markets in a single bet.

Currently, William Hill is pricing Napoli to win and both sides to score at a highly competitive 5.00, while the average odds across all sportsbooks is around 4.50.

Once again, the price for this particular combination bet may drift prior to kick off, while it offers the most value as an ante post wager rather than an in-play alternative (especially if there’s an early goal scored at the San Siro).

Because of the odds in play, you can also wager a nominal stake amount to minimise potential losses, while still pursuing generous returns.

🎁 Champions League Free Bet Offers to use on Milan vs Napoli

Sports betting success relies on a combination of knowledge and an ability to identify value in published odds, while you should also use every tool at your disposal to optimise any potential returns. In this case, I’d definitely recommend seeking out the very latest Milan vs Napoli free bet offers, with those listed below offering particular value in the current market.

1️⃣ PalmSlots Sports – 100% Deposit Match up to €100

PalmSlots Sports is a relative newcomer to the sports betting scene in Ireland, and it’s currently looking to incentivize customers with a 100% first deposit match up to the value of €100. This is quite a generous offer, although all free bets must be deployed on outcomes with odds of 1.80 or greater. There are also wagering requirements of 16x the total bonus value in play, so if you opt in at the minimum amount of €10 and receive €10 with which to play, you’ll have to play through €160 before withdrawing any winnings.

2️⃣ William Hill Sports – Bet €10 and Earn €40 in Free Bets

William Hill represents a more established and renowned sportsbook in Ireland and the UK, but the operator is still looking to reward new players and compete aggressively with newcomers in the marketplace. To this end, they’re offering €40 in free bets when you sign up via mobile and place a qualifying wager of €10 or higher. This bonus comprises four separate €10 bets, while your free wagers will expire 30 days after they’ve been added to your account. Payment method restrictions also apply, so check out the offer’s T&Cs to learn more!

3️⃣ TonyBet Sports – 100% Deposit Match up to €50

I’ll close with TonyBet Sports’ current welcome offer, which currently rewards new players with a 100% deposit match up to the value of €50. You’ll need to opt into to receive the bonus by entering the promo code ‘TONY50’ on the deposit page, while the total value of the bonus will be subject to wagering requirements of 10x. All qualifying bets must also be placed on outcomes with minimum odds of 1.65, with this capable of unlocking some of the best Milan vs Napoli betting markets.

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🥇 Milan vs Napoli Path to the Final

The UCL quarter final draw created an additional incentive for both sides to prevail, as the victor will be rewarded with an incredibly winnable semi-final tie against either Benfica or Inter Milan.

Conversely, Manchester City, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and Chelsea will compete in the other side of the draw, which means that only one of these continental juggernauts will earn a place in the showpiece final on June 10th at Istanbul’s Ataturk Stadium.

Whichever side wins this quarter final tie, they’ll contest their two legs against Benfica or Inter between May 9th and May 17th, and there’s no doubt that Milan would love to take on their bitter city rivals in the last four.

Unsurprisingly, Napoli are the clear favourites to qualify from their particular side of the draw, at an average price of 1.91. Conversely, Milan can be backed to reach the final at an average price of 7.00, and as high as 8.00 with some sportsbooks.

❓ Frequently Asked Questions About Milan vs Napoli Prediction

I hope that you’ve found this Milan vs Napoli prediction helpful, and now have some clear ideas on how to wager on this quarter final first leg clash. Below, you’ll also find some answers to a few of your most frequently asked questions about the tie, which should help to summarise some of the information in this guide!

1️⃣ Milan vs Napoli Champions League Leg 1 – Who Will Win?

It’s hard to ignore the quality and relentless nature of Napoli, who have won 30 of the 36 matches they’ve contested this season and march on in their quest to win a European double. I certainly expect them to beat Milan at the San Siro and subsequently reach the last four, although the Rossoneri will be competitive and provide an attacking threat of their own throughout.


2️⃣ What’s the best price for Napoli to beat Milan?

Napoli can be backed to win the first leg at a price of 2.35 with Unibet, which I think is genuinely competitive given their obvious superiority over the current Milan side. As for Milan, you can back them to prevail at the San Siro at an average price of 3.25 (and as high as 3.40 with TonyBet Sports), while the draw is priced at around 3.30.


3️⃣ Where Can I Watch Milan vs Napoli?

BT Sports has the exclusive rights to broadcast Champions League football in Ireland and the UK, so this is where you’ll catch the first leg of the quarterfinal clash between Milan and Napoli. This match will take place on April 12th at the San Siro, with a scheduled kick off time of 20:00. If you’re an in-play betting enthusiast, you should also check to see if your favourite sportsbook is live streaming the action!


4️⃣ What are the Odds for Both Sides to Win the 2022/23 Champions League?

Napoli’s seemingly favourable UCL draw has established them as the second favourites to win this season’s Champions League, and they can be backed ahead of Bayern Munich and Real Madrid at an average price of 4.50. Conversely, the bookies have Milan as rank outsiders and the quarterfinalist with the longest price, and you can back the Rossoneri to win the tournament at 32.00 with some operators.

✒️ Lewis Humphries – UEFA Champions League Betting Expert

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands.His content has also been featured on a number of different sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.

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