Man City vs Bayern Munich Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

Man City vs Bayern Prediction
TournamentUEFA Champions League
TimetableTuesday 11th of April at 20:00 GMT
PredictionMan City to Win!
OddsMan City to Win @ 1.85
BookmakerPalm Slots Sports
Man City to Win!
The best odds
Odds : 1.85
Bet €100 and win €185 if Man City win.
Odds : 1.83
Bet €100 and win €183 if Man City win.

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Odds : 1.90
Bet €100 and win €190 if Man City win.


The 2022/23 UCL is now down to the last eight, with the draw for the quarterfinals having pitted tournament favourites Manchester City against six-time UCL winners Bayern Munich in a thrilling two-legged tie.

The first leg will kick off at the Etihad Stadium on April 11th, as Manchester City look to build a competitive lead in front of their home fans and take a significant step towards their first ever Champions League triumph. As for Bayern, they’ll be hoping to end a run of two consecutive quarter final defeats in the UCL, after winning the trophy back in 2019/20.

But will City’s fans roar them on to an all-important win in the first leg, or can Bayern showcase their immense European pedigree and upset the Champions League odds in Manchester? I’ll take a look at the latest odds and betting markets in the preview below, while offering my own Man City vs Bayern prediction on the outcome of the first leg.

💯 Man City vs Bayern Munich Odds


Manchester City have been the football bookmakers’ favourite for the 2022/23 UCL since the beginning of the campaign, so they’re obviously fancied to beat Bayern over two legs. But what are the Man City vs Bayern odds for the first leg of the quarter finals? Here’s a sneak peak at the most popular betting markets, starting with the outright match winner.

🏆 Man City vs Bayern Munich Match Winner Odds

Man City to Win1.951.851.931.831.901.911.91
Bayern Munich to Win3.803.603.723.803.603.753.75

⚽ Man City vs Bayern Munich Both Teams to Score Odds:

You can also bet on whether or not both teams will score in the quarter final first leg clash between Man City and Bayern. This is an even money market, while betting on both sides to score becomes increasingly popular as the tournament progresses and higher quality teams are drawn against one another.


🥅 Man City vs Bayern Munich Over/Under 2.5 Goals Odds:

In terms of totals betting, you can also wager on whether over or under 2.5 goals will be scored in the Man City vs Bayern first leg. This is another even money betting market, and one that’s particularly interesting given that the 112 UCL matches contested so far in 2022/23 have yielded 342 goals at a rate of 3.05 per game.

Over 2.5 Goals1.571.601.591.571.621.601.67
Under 2.5 Goals2.202.322.

🏅 Man City Champions League Quarterfinal Leg 1 Preview

During Pep Guardiola’s tenure at the Etihad Stadium, Man City have often excelled domestically while continuing to fall short of European success. However, the tables appear to have turned to some degree this season, with City struggling to maintain consistency in the Premier League (they’ve failed to win more than three consecutive league games all season) but largely dominating their European opposition.

This was certainly the case in their round of 16 clash with Leipzig, which saw City secure a confident 1-1 draw in Germany before thrashing the Bundesliga side 7-0 at the Etihad Stadium. The second leg saw the incredible Erling Haaland equal Lionel Messi’s record of scoring five goals in a single UCL game, while the Norwegian has now hit 42 goals in just 37 games in all competitions this season.

Certainly, Haaland has added a ruthless cutting edge to the City attack, with the side’s profligacy in front of goal considered to be the main factor behind their semi-final defeat to Real Madrid last season. However, it should be noted that while Haaland has scored five times in seven games against Bayern Munich during his career (all for Borussia Dortmund), he also been on the losing side on every single occasion, so his presence is no guarantee of success for Guardiola’s men.

The really good news for City is that they have no significant injuries or suspensions as we head towards the first leg of the quarterfinal. So, although left back Benjamin Mendy remains a long-term absentee for personal and legal reasons, Guardiola should have a full-strength squad to choose from when Bayern arrive in Manchester.

📰 Latest Man City Champions League News

⚡ Bayern Munich Champions League Quarterfinal Leg 1 Preview

Interestingly, Bayern’s fortunes have largely mirrored City’s in 2022/23, with the Bavarians struggling to match their usual standards domestically while maintaining a 100% record in the UEFA Champions League. To this end, Bayern’s 2-1 defeat to Bayer Leverkusen last time out left them a point behind Borussia Dortmund at the top of the Bundesliga, with the club having failed to win 10 of their 25 league matches as they go in search of an 11th consecutive title.

In the UCL, Bayern have won all eight of their matches played during the 2022/23 campaign, scoring 21 goals and conceding just two in the process. This impressive run has seen the side top Group C and eliminate Barcelona, while they managed to defeat both the Catalan giants and Inter Milan twice without conceding at all.

An expensively assembled PSG side was also dispatched with ease in the round of 16, with Bayern following up a dominant 1-0 win in Paris with a 2-0 triumph at the Allianz Arena. By delivering an authoritative performance over the two legs, the Bavarians laid down a genuine marker and reinforced their status as one of the teams to beat in this years’ UCL.

However, Bayern are currently struggling with a growing injury crisis, with Lucas Hernandez (cruciate ligament) and sweeper keeper Manuel Neuer (fractured leg) long-term absentees. Top scorer Eric Choupo-Moting, who has scored a career best 17 goals in 26 appearances this season, is also sidelined with a back injury, while the talented Jamal Musiala has a hamstring issue and may not be back in time for the second leg.

📰 Latest Bayern Champions League News

🆚 Man City vs Bayern Munich Key Matchups

Clearly, Bayern’s injury issues and City’s penchant for squad rotation makes it hard to predict the precise lineups for the quarterfinal first leg in Manchester. However, some players are certain starters if they’re fit, so I’m going to take a closer look at some of the key duels that may define the first leg result.

1️⃣ Erling Haaland vs Dayot Upamecano

It’s almost inevitable that the prolific Haaland will lead City’s attacking line against Bayern, as he continues his own personal quest to be this seasons’ top scorer in the UEFA Champions League. Haaland’s five goal haul in the round of 16 second leg against Leipzig has left the Norwegian with a record of 10 goals in just six UCL games, and he’ll be keen to improve this record against Bayern.

In his way will be Bayern’s athletic centre back Dayot Upamecano, whose pace and strength makes him best placed to deal with Haaland’s direct physical threat. Certainly, Upamecano will look to use his own physical strengths to defend proactively against Haaland, by getting tight to the Norwegian and stepping in front to prevent him from receiving the ball.

Upamecano will also have to track Haaland’s runs in behind, especially given Bayern’s typically high defensive line and the absence of the Bavarian’s excellent sweeper keeper Manuel Neuer. This could prove incredibly challenging, as not many defenders are quick and strong enough to deny Haaland when he’s in full flow and attacking the space in front of him.

To effectively marshal Haaland and counter his threat, Upamecano will also need to rely on support from his centre back partner Matthijs de Ligt, while Bayern may even deploy a back three to provide additional cover in the central defensive areas.

2️⃣ Kevin De Bruyne vs Joshua Kimmich

Whether Bayern play with a flat back four or three-man central defence, German international Joshua Kimmich is likely to start in defensive midfield. Make no mistake; the 28-year-old is one of the best defensive midfielders in the world, while his versatility and ability to also play right back contributes significant to his outstanding positional awareness.

Because of this, Kimmich will most likely be tasked with tracking Kevin De Bruyne, although I don’t expect him to man mark the Belgian. Instead, he’ll patrol the central space in front of the back four, looking to deny De Bruyne space in possession and track those powerful runs that he looks to make in behind.

Teams have definitely had success when paying special attention to De Bruyne this season, with this contributing to an underwhelming campaign for the Belgian in 2022/23 (at least according to his own high standards). During City’s 2-1 defeat at Old Trafford in January, for example, Fred played superbly while marshaling De Bruyne, denying him space throughout and preventing him from dictating play.

If Kimmich can quieten De Bruyne and nullify his influence at the Etihad, Bayern will cut off a key line of supply to Haaland and go a long way to taking control of the tie.

3️⃣ Kyle Walker vs Sadio Mane

Kyle Walker has endured a difficult personal time of late, but he returned to the starting line up in the 6-0 FA Cup quarterfinal over Burnley. So, I expect him to start ahead of John Stones at right back in the first leg against Munich, where he will have to deal with the pace, movement and intense pressing to the excellent Sadio Mane.

While the Senegal striker’s first season in Bavaria has been disrupted by injury, he has still contributed 11 goals and five assists in 28 appearances across all competitions. The versatile Mane can also play on the left-hand side in a 4-2-3-1 shape, or move centrally when Bayern switch to their less conventional 3-1-4-2 formation.

Walker also regularly tucks in as a de facto third centre back when City have possession, so he’s likely to spend much of the first leg in direct opposition to Mane. Here, he’ll need all of his recovery pace, experience and positional sense to nullify Mane’s threat, but few players are as well equipped to achieve such an objective.

When Bayern have the ball, City and Walker will also have to be wary of the marauding Alphonso Davies on the left flank. Certainly, Walker won’t want to face too many 2v1 situations in the wide areas, as this could leave him exposed during swift transitions.

📈 Man City vs Bayern Munich Head-to-Head Statistics

City and Bayern have only played each other six times in official UEFA competitions, with all such meetings coming in the Champions League. All of these matches have also been played since 2011, which should come as no surprise given that Man City only made one appearance in Europe’s premier club competition prior to this date.

However, this is the first knockout clash between the two sides, with the previous six all taking place during the UCL group stages.

Overall, Man City and Bayern have three wins apiece, with the former scoring nine goals in these matches and the latter hitting the back of the net on 10 occasions. Interestingly, both teams also have also recorded two wins and one defeat at home, while neither City nor Bayern have recorded consecutive victories over their opponents.

So, with City winning the last meeting 3-2 at the Etihad Stadium on matchday five during the 2014/15 group stage, history buffs may feel as though Bayern are due a win in the first leg of this quarterfinal clash!

🏆 Man City vs Bayern Munich Prediction – Who will Win?


In terms of my Man City vs Bayern Munich prediction, there’s no doubt that City will have an edge in front of their own fans at the Etihad Stadium. The Citizens’ 7-0 destruction of RB Leipzig in the second leg of the round of 16 tie certainly highlighted just how unstoppable the team can be at home on their day, while Guardiola’s men followed this up with a 6-0 thrashing of Burnley at the Etihad.

Of course, Bayern represent a different proposition to both Leipzig and Burnley, while they’re unlikely to compromise on their own playing philosophy in Manchester. In fact, Julian Nagelsmann’s team will also be keen on dominating possession, pressing aggressively and maintaining a high defensive line, creating plenty of space for City to attack if they can play through a compressed central area.

This could lead to either an incredibly open game or a tight encounter, depending on the ability of each team to play through the other’s press and use quick transitions to target space in behind the opposing defensive line.

Ultimately, I expect City to edge Bayern in both respects, especially with Haaland offering a quick and direct threat in behind and incredibly potency in front of goal. Conversely, Bayern could be without their own top scorer Choupo-Moting, so City will fancy their chances of outscoring their opponents and taking a crucial lead to Germany.

⚽ My Man City vs Bayern Prediction: Man City to Win! Final Score: Man City 2 🏆 Bayern Munich 1

🔍 Man City vs Bayern Munich Betting Tips

There’s arguably not a great deal of value to be found by backing City to win the first leg against Bayern, especially at a best price of 1.95 with TonyBet Sports. However, there are other markets that may prove to be a little more tempting, so here are a few Man City vs Bayern betting tips to keep in mind:

1️⃣ Man City to Win and Both Sides Score at 3.40 with William Hill Sports

In addition to match betting, there’s also not much value in backing both sides to score in the quarterfinal first leg at the Etihad Stadium. However, you can access much more favourable odds by backing City to win and both sides to score in this game, with William Hill pricing this combination of outcomes at 3.40.

City certainly don’t lose many games under Pep (they’ve tasted defeat just 57 times in 395 matches overall) and have a win percentage of 72.41%, while their record at home is particularly impressive.

Similarly, there will be some serious firepower on show for both teams in Manchester, from the record-breaking Haaland to Bayern’s Sadio Mane and Leroy Sane.

Overall, you can optimise your returns with this type of combination bet, while targeting these particular markets will also help you to minimise risk.

2️⃣ Over 2.5 goals at 1.67 with William Hill Sport

If you prefer to place lower risk single bets with increased stakes, I’d recommend betting on there being over 2.5 goals scored at 1.67 with William Hill.

After all, not only is the average goals-per-game rate in the 2022/23 UEFA Champions League currently 3.05, but the Man City vs Bayern quarterfinal first leg clash will pit two of Europe’s most prolific attacking units against one another.

To put this into context, City have plundered 109 goals in 43 matches across all competitions this season, at a rate of 2.53 per game. Bayern’s strike rate is even better, with the side having scored 112 goals in 37 matches at a rate of 3.02 per game.

So, even accounting for the tense and high-profile nature of the game, the statistics suggest that there’s likely to be more than 2.5 goals scored in the first leg, while William Hill are offering competitive odds of 1.67 on this particular outcome.

3️⃣ Man City to Win by One Goal at 4.00 with Unibet

I’ll close with another combination bet and one that creates additional value when wagering on the final result of the quarter final first leg clash between Man City and Bayern.

My prediction is that City will prevail by a single goal in Manchester, but rather than simply backing Guardiola’s team to win, you can bet on them to triumph by a single goal at a price of 4.00 with Unibet.

This wager can deliver much-improved returns without creating disproportionate risk, especially as it’s hard to see either team winning by a significant margin or anything more than the odd goal.

I’d definitely recommend this as an ante-post betting market too, as the odds are likely to shorten once the match gets underway.

🎁 Man City vs Bayern Munich Free Bets


Regardless of which markets you leverage and whether or not you follow my Man City vs Bayern betting tips, it’s important that you make use of relevant free bet offers where possible. I’ve listed 12 of the best Man City vs Bayern free bet offers below, while highlighting three that offer particular value in the current market.

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2️⃣ Ladbrokes – Bet €5 and Earn €20 in Free Bets

Ladbrokes Sports is another market leading betting brand in Ireland and the UK, and one that’s currently home to one of the most accessible welcome bonuses around. As a new customer, you simply need to make a qualifying wager of €5 on an outcome with odds of 1.50 or higher, at which point you’ll earn four separate €5 free bets totaling €20. Once again, you’ll have seven days to deploy these free bets before they’re removed from your account.

3️⃣ Luckster – 100% Deposit Match up to €100

Last, but not least, we come to Luckster, who are currently offering new Irish customers a 100% first deposit match up to the value of €100. This generous offer is also subject to minimal wagering requirements of just 9x, so opting in at the minimum level of €10 will create a total playthrough amount of $90 before you can withdraw your winnings. The offers’ T&Cs also dictate that all single bets must be placed on outcomes with minimum odds of 2.00.

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🥇 Man City vs Bayern Munich Path to the Final

The draw for the 2022/23 UCL quarterfinals was made on Friday, 17th March, while this event also made provision for the semi-finals and each competing sides’ potential route to the final in Istanbul.

Man City and Bayern have undoubtedly been drawn in the toughest segment of the draw, which will see the eventual winner over two legs take on either defending champions Real Madrid or 2021 winners Chelsea in the last four.

Interestingly, this side of the draw features the tournament’s last three winners, with the two-legged semi-finals taking place between the 9th and 17th May.

In the final at the Ataturk Stadium in Istanbul on June 10th, the team that progresses from this side of the draw will play one of Benfica, Inter Milan, AC Milan and second favourites Napoli.

❓ Frequently Asked Questions About Man City vs Bayern Munich Prediction

Before I bring this Man City vs Bayern prediction and preview to an end, I’m going to answer some of your most frequently asked questions about the quarterfinal first leg and its most likely outcomes!

1️⃣ Man City vs Bayern Munich Champions League Leg 1 – Who Will Win?

The bookies are leaning towards Man City to win the quarterfinal first leg against Bayern, with home advantage clearly a critical factor here. I have also predicted that City will win the first leg by the odd goal, while the Citizens arguably have an edge in the tie overall. However, both legs will be tight and keenly contested, which is why combining different match betting markets may offer more value.

2️⃣ What’s the best price for Man City to beat Bayern?

You certainly can’t unlock huge value when wagering on City through straight match betting, with a market leading price of 1.95 being currently being offered by TonyBet Sports. Interestingly, Bayern are priced as long as 3.80 to win the quarterfinal first leg with some sportsbooks, although I’d expect these odds to shorten slightly as the game draws closer.

3️⃣ Where Can I Watch Man City vs Bayern Munich?

The first leg clash between Man City and Bayern Munich will kick off at 20:00 on Tuesday April 11th, with BT Sport 1 broadcasting this to the Irish and UK fans who aren’t attending the Etihad Stadium. If you’re a fan of in-play betting, you may also want to check and see if your preferred sportsbook is live streaming the event through their platform.

4️⃣ What are the Odds for Both Sides to Win the 2022/23 Champions League?

Man City have been the favourites for the 2022/23 UEFA Champions League since the beginning of the season, while their current outright price of 3.50 has remained largely unchanged during this time. Bayern’s round of 16 win over fellow heavyweights PSG established the Bavarians as third favourites to win this season, while they can be backed at an average price of 4.50.

Man City to Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – UEFA Champions League Betting Expert


Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands.His content has also been featured on a number of different sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.