PSV Eindhoven v Arsenal Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

psv-v-arsenal-logo psv-v-arsenal-logo
TournamentChampions League
Timetable17:45 GMT, 12th Dec 23
PredictionPSV Eindhoven to Win!
Odds2.38
Bookmakerbetway
PSV Eindhoven to Win!
The best odds
1.
betway
Odds : 2.38
Bet €100 and win €238 if PSV win.
Bonus:
€50+ 50 Free Spins
2.
Tony​Bet Sports
Odds : 2.38
Bet €100 and win €238 if PSV win.
Bonus:
3.
Betiton
Odds : 2.35
Bet €100 and win €235 if PSV win.
Bonus:
€10
psv-v-arsenal-logo psv-v-arsenal-logo

This could well be a strange and low-key affair at the Philips Stadion, with PSV and Arsenal having both qualified for the Champions League round of 16. The Gunners are already assured of top spot too, having thrashed Lens 6-0 at the Emirates in gameweek five. The Dutch side secured qualification in much more dramatic circumstances, with Pepi’s stoppage time winner in Seville helping PSV to recover from a 2-0 deficit and eliminate the Europa League specialists. In this comprehensive guide, I’ll offer my own prediction on how the game will pan out, while comparing the latest odds from the best betting sites.

🏆 PSV Eindhoven v Arsenal UCL Prediction

Of the seven UEFA Champions League games contested by these two teams since 2002, Arsenal have won three and a further three have ended in draws. PSV have only prevailed once in these head-to-head encounters, with a goal by forward Édison Méndez securing a 1-0 win over Gunners in a 2006/07 round of 16 clash.

In terms of this season’s competition, it’s interesting to note that PSV has produced 29.00 shot-creating actions per 90, compared to just 23.80 for Arsenal. PSV have also attempted 77 shots on goal throughout their 2023/24 Group B campaign, while the Gunners have only managed to complete 67.

However, Arsenal have recorded more shots on target (28 vs 27), while their xG value of 9.0 is also noticeably higher than PSV’s (6.6). This hints at the Gunners superior efficiency and quality in front of goal, especially as Arsenal have also outperformed their tournament xG value by an impressive +5.2 goals.

Still, I expect the Gunners to rest players against PSV, while the runaway Eredivisie leaders are unbeaten at home this season and have won 10 of their 11 games at the Philips Stadion in all competitions. So, I’m tipping PSV to edge an entertaining clash between two relaxed and attack minded sides!

My Prediction: 🏆 PSV 3 – 1 Arsenal ⚽

💯 PSV Eindhoven v Arsenal UCL Match Odds

This is a difficult match to call in many ways, especially with both sides already qualified for the round of 16. If you have free bets on your chosen sportsbook account, this may lend itself to matched betting, where you can lay a back wager on one side to win and cover all potential outcomes.

However, it’s also important to review the full range of PSV vs Arsenal betting markets and odds, including the following:

🏅 PSV Eindhoven v Arsenal Match Winner

PSV’s incredible form at home has certainly influenced the bookies, who have made Peter Bosz’ side the narrow favourites at around 2.35. This implies a 42.55% probability of a home win, while average odds of 2.75 suggest that the Gunners have a 36.36% chance of ending their Group B campaign with another victory.

Team
PSV Eindhoven to Win2.302.382.352.382.30
Arsenal to Win2.752.632.672.602.75
Draw3.503.603.553.503.50

⚽ PSV Eindhoven v Arsenal: Both Teams To Score

PSV have failed to score just once in 24 matches across all competitions this season, although this was against Arsenal in a 4-0 defeat at the Emirates in gameweek one. However, they have kept 11 clean sheets and one in the Champions League, so both sides have found the net in only 12 of their games. Both teams have also scored in 12 of Arsenal’s 23 games in 2023/24, while the Gunners have drawn a single blank too.

Yes/No
Yes1.501.501.481.441.50
No2.502.502.482.502.50

🥅 PSV Eindhoven v Arsenal: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

PSV and Arsenal have contested 47 matches so far in 2023/24, with these yielding a whopping 164 goals at an impressive rate of 3.48 per game. From an offensive perspective, PSV have scored 72 goals in their 24 matches at a rate of 3.00 per 90 minutes, including 50 in just 14 league encounters at the Philips Stadion.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals1.571.601.561.571.57
Under 2.5 Goals2.302.202.242.302.25

✔️ PSV Eindhoven v Arsenal - Betting Tips

As you can see, the PSV vs Arsenal match odds vary across the sportsbooks featured in Betinireland’s bookmaker reviews. So, I’ve prepared some betting tips to help you create value and identify the best value wagering markets!

  • Tip 1: Back PSV to Win and Both Teams to Score: PSV’s home record in 2023/24 has seen them win 10 of their 11 matches and remain unbeaten, while they’ve scored 36 goals in front of their own fans. So, they’re a formidable force at the Philips Stadion, while Arsenal continue to grind out results without looking convincing away from home. The Gunners are now the top scoring side in this season’s UCL too, so there’s value in backing PSV to win and both teams to score at a price of 4.00 with Betway.
  • Tip 2: Back Over 3.5 Goals Being Scored in the Game: Whenever you wager on the over/under for total goals scored, the 2.5 goals betting line remains the most popular. However, the matches featuring PSV and Arsenal in 2023/24 have produced 3.48 goals per game, with both teams adopting a proactive and possession-based approach home and away. The sides should also be relaxed having already qualified for the round of 16, so consider backing over 3.5 goals being scored at a price of 2.55 with Dachbet.
  • Tip 3: Back Arsenal to Score First: While I expect PSV to defeat the Gunners in gameweek six, there’s also good value in backing Arsenal to score first at a price of 2.55 with TonyBet Sports. After all, they’ve scored 11 goals and conceded just one in the first half of their UCL games, while PSV have struck just once during the opening 45 minutes in the 2023/24 Champions League. They also had to come from behind in both matches against Sevilla, and may have to do so against when they play Arsenal.

1️⃣ PSV Eindhoven Update

PSV have won 20 of their 24 matches in 2023/24, contributing to an incredible win rate of 83.33%. This sequence includes 14 successive Eredivisie victories, which means that the side have maintained a 100% winning record since the beginning of the campaign. They’ve hit 50 league goals across the encounters at a rate of 3.57 per game too, while their goals tally across all competitions has now hit an impressive 72. Winger Noa Lang has also performed impressively in his two UCL appearances so far and is a huge attacking threat from the bench, producing 6.55 shot-creating actions per 90.

Last 5 Games
Feyenoord 1
PSV 2
03.12.23
Eredivisie
Sevilla 2
PSV 3
29.11.23
Champions League
FC Twente 0
PSV 3
25.11.23
Eredivisie
PSV 4
PEC Zwolle 0
12.11.23
Eredivisie
PSV 1
Lens 0
08.11.23
Champions League

PSV may be without centre back pair Armando Obispo (knee injury) and Armel Bella-Kotchap (shoulder) for the visit of Arsenal, while left back Mauro Júnior could also miss out with a knee complaint. Otherwise, the Dutch outfit should be at full strength for the match!

PlayerReason
Armando Obispo Knee Injury
Armel Bella-Kotchap Shoulder Injury
Mauro Júnior Knee Injury

2️⃣ Arsenal Update

Despite still having to reach top gear this season, Arsenal have won consecutive games in all competitions since November 8th. This sequence includes four successive Premier League victories following a 1-0 defeat at Newcastle on November 4th, while they’ve triumphed in four out of five matches in Champions League Group B. Of course, they also vanquished PSV 4-0 at the Emirates in gameweek one, although it should be noted that the Gunners are far more potent at home than they are on the road. Young winger Bukayo Saka has four UCL assists to his name this season too, while he has produced 6.00 shot-creating actions per 90 in the competition.

Last 5 Games
Luton 3
Arsenal 4
05.12.23
Premier League
Arsenal 2
Wolves 1
02.12.23
Premier League
Arsenal 6
RC Lens 0
29.11.23
Champions League
Brentford 0
Arsenal 1
25.10.23
Premier League
Arsenal 3
Burnley 1
11.11.23
Premier League

Arsenal will also have a relatively fully fit squad to choose from when they visit the Netherlands, although summer signing Jurrien Timber will continue his recovery from a cruciate ligament tear. Midfielder Thomas Partey has also been ruled out until the New Year with a hamstring injury, while Emile Smith Rowe is missing as he continues to struggle with a knee injury.

PlayerReason
Jurrien Timber Cruciate Ligament Tear
Thomas Partey Hamstring Injury
Emile Smith Rowe Knee Injury

👕 PSV vs Arsenal - Potential Lineups

Pos. PSV
4-3-3
Arsenal
4-2-3-1
Pos.
Goalkeeper W. Benitez A. Ramsdale Goalkeeper
Right Back J. Teze C. Soares Right Back
Centre Back J. Schouten B. White Centre Back
Centre Back O. Boscagli Gabriel Centre Back
Left Back S. Dest O. Zinchenko Right Wing Back
Midfielder J. Veerman M. Ødegaard Midfielder
Midfielder G. Til D. Rice Midfielder
Midfielder I. Saibari K. Havertz Midfielder
Wide Forward J. Bakayoko B. Saka Wide Forward
Striker L. de Jong E. Nketiah Striker
Wide Forward I. Paixão L. Trossard Wide Forward

PSV Eindhoven to Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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