PSG v Newcastle United Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

psg-v-newcastle-prediction psg-v-newcastle-prediction
TournamentChampions League
Timetable20:00 GMT, 28th November 2023
PredictionPSG to Win!
Odds1.70
BookmakerDachbet Sports
The best odds
1.
Dach​bet Sports
Odds : 1.70
Bet €100 and win €170 if PSG win.
Bonus:
2.
betway
Odds : 1.70
Bet €100 and win €170 if PSG win.
Bonus:
€50+ 50 Free Spins
3.
Tony​Bet Sports
Odds : 1.70
Bet €100 and win €170 if PSG win.
Bonus:
PSG-v-Newcastle PSG-v-Newcastle

The UEFA Champions League returns after a three week hiatus on Tuesday 28th November, with Newcastle United making the trip across the channel to face PSG. Successive defeats to Borussia Dortmund have left Newcastle bottom of Group F, while another defeat at the Parc des Princes will eliminate them from the competition. Conversely, a win here would taken them ahead of PSG in the table, so there’s all to play for in gameweek five of the UCL! But how are the best betting sites pricing a Newcastle win, and who do I think will win in northern France?

🏆 Paris Saint-Germain v Newcastle United UCL Prediction

Not only did the Magpies’ stunning 4-1 win over PSG in gameweek two mark their first UCL game at St James Park in 20 years, but this was also the first ever time that the two teams had done battle competitively. However, PSG will be a different proposition on their home ground, where Luis Enrique’s side have only lost 23 times since the beginning of the 2013/14 season.

PSG will certainly dominate the ball against Newcastle, with the side averaging 67.5% possession across their four UCL games so far this season. While Eddie Howe won’t be too concerned about this (PSG boasted 74% possession at St James Park during their 4-1 defeat in October), his team’s ability to press and counterattack effectively may be greatly restricted by a mounting injury crisis.

At the time of writing, Newcastle are without 10 first team players, and it’s unclear how many of these will be available for the trip to Paris. Attacking players Callum Wilson, Alexander Isak, Miguel Almiron and Harvey Barnes could all be absent, further straining an attack that has only produced an average of 16.75 shot-creating actions per 90 in the UCL (only Young Boys, Antwerp, Sevilla and Celtic have fared worse in this respect).

Even at full strength, Newcastle would find it hard to beat a constantly improving PSG side at the Parc des Princes. However, this challenge will be made even harder by the Magpies attacking absentees and their potential inability to counter effectively, so I’m backing a comfortable win for PSG here.

My Prediction: 🏆 PSG 3 – 0 Newcastle ⚽

💯 Paris Saint-Germain v Newcastle United UCL Match Odds

Whether you want to wager a percentage of your bankroll on the clash between PSG and Newcastle, take a go at matched betting, or simply utilise one or more free bets that you have on your account, you’ll be able to access a huge range of potential markets online. Below, I’ll look at the most popular and how they’re currently being priced!

🏅 Paris Saint-Germain v Newcastle United: Match Winner

PSG are the favourites to beat Newcastle in gameweek five of the Champions League, while their average price of 1.70 implies a 58.82% probability of a home win. As for Newcastle, they can be backed at around 4.50 to prevail, which affords the Magpies a 22.22% chance of beating PSG.

Team
PSG to Win1.701.701.681.701.67
Newcastle to Win4.504.334.404.604.60
Draw3.753.803.904.003.80

⚽ Paris Saint-Germain v Newcastle United: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have scored in just four of PSG’s last 10 matches, with Enrique’s side keeping six clean sheets during this sequence. As for Newcastle, both competing sides have only scored in six of their 18 games across all competitions, with the EPL team keeping eight clean sheets and failing to score on five occasions.

Yes/No
Yes1.621.701.641.701.67
No2.102.102.132.102.10

🥅 Paris Saint-Germain v Newcastle United: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Across all competitions, these two sides have contested a total of 34 matches this season, with these contests yielding 103 goals at a rate of 3.02 per game. This statistic is reflected in the over/under 2.5 goals market odds, which imply a higher probability of more than 2.5 goals being scored in this match!

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals1.671.671.671.671.67
Under 2.5 Goals2.052.102.062.102.10

✔️ Paris Saint-Germain v Newcastle United - Betting Tips

You’ll find the above betting markets covered at all of the sites detailed in Betinireland’s bookmaker reviews, while you can also construct combination wagers to create value ahead of this UCL game. Also, I’ve prepared some expert betting tips to help you make the most of your bankroll.

  • Tip 1: Back PSG to Win to Nil: Analysis of the BTTS market shows that both teams have failed to score in 12 of Newcastle’s 18 matches this season, while PSG have kept a total of eight clean sheets in 2023/24. Newcastle also drew a blank at Bournemouth last time out and could be without both Aleksander Isak and Callum Wilson in France, so I think there’s value in backing PSG to win to nil at a price of 3.10 with TonyBet Sports.
  • Tip 2: Back Both Sides Not to Score: Despite both teams being defensively well organised (Newcastle have also kept eight clean sheets this season), the BTTS odds imply a higher probability of both sides scoring at the Parc des Princes. However, I expect PSG to dominate possession and restrict a depleted Newcastle in transition, so there’s surprising value in backing both sides not to score at a price of 2.13 with Betiton.
  • Tip 3: Back PSG to Win With a Handicap of -1.5 Goals: Interestingly, nine of PSG’s 10 wins in 2023/24 have been by two goals or more, while the team’s ability to dominate possession and threaten in the final third (they’ve produced 25.75 shot-creating actions per 90 in the Champions League) should help them to sustain attacks against Newcastle. So, you may want to consider backing PSG to win with a small handicap of -1.5 goals at a price of 2.90 with Dachbet Sports.

1️⃣ PSG Update

PSG have played 16 matches in all competitions this season, winning 10 of these encounters and recording just three defeats. They’ve also won six out of their last seven matches since losing 4-1 to Newcastle at St James Park on October 4th, with a surprise 2-1 defeat in Milan in UCL gameweek four the only blemish during this sequence. Star striker Kylian Mbappe has scored seven times during this this run (including a hattrick last time out at Reims), taking his total tally to 15 goals in just 15 appearances since the beginning of the season.

Last 5 Games
Reims 0
PSG 3
11.11.23
Ligue 1
Milan 2
PSG 1
07.11.23
Champions League
PSG 3
Montpellier0
03.11.23
Ligue 1
Brest 2
PSG 3
29.10.23
Ligue 1
PSG 3
Milan 0
25.10.23
Champions League

PSG remain without a number of players ahead of the visit of Newcastle, including long-term absentees Presnel Kimpembe (Achilles tendon rupture), Sergio Rico (cerebral hemorrhage) and Nuno Mendes (whose hamstring injury is expected to keep him sidelined until February 2024). Winger Marco Asensio is also a doubt with an ongoing and unknown injury, while defensive midfielder Danilo Pereira could miss out too.

PlayerReason
Presnel Kimpembe Achilles Tendon Rupture
Sergio Rico Cerebral Hemorrhage
Nuno Mendes Hamstring Injury
Marco Asensio Unknown Injury
Danilo Pereira Unknown Injury

2️⃣ Newcastle Update

Newcastle endured a difficult start to the 2023/24 season, while they’ve only won nine of their 18 matches in all competitions (drawing three and losing six in total). They’ve won just three of their last eight games as their injury problems have continued to mount too, with this sequence including consecutive home and away defeats to Dortmund in the UCL and a tame 2-0 reversal at Bournemouth last time out. The side have only scored 12 goals since putting four past PSG on October 4th, while the combined absence of strikers Isak and Wilson left the side looking completely toothless in their defeat at the Vitality Stadium.

Last 5 Games
Bournemouth 2
Newcastle0
11.11.23
Premier League
Dortmund 2
Newcastle 0
07.11.23
Champions League
Newcastle 1
Arsenal 0
04.11.23
Premier League
Man United0
Newcastle 3
01.11.23
EFL Cup
Wolves 2
Newcastle 2
28.10.23
Premier League

It has now been confirmed that left back Dan Burn will miss up to two months with a back injury, while he joins Harvey Barnes (foot), Sven Botman (knee) and Alexander Isak (groin) on the long-term injury list. Miguel Almiron limped off against Bournemouth, and is expected to be out for several weeks with a muscle injury. Jacob Murphy may also miss out with a recurrence of a previous shoulder injury, while young midfielder Elliot Anderson is a doubt with a back complaint.

Matt Targett and prolific striker Callum Wilson are both struggling with hamstring injuries, while Sandro Tonali has been ruled out for 10 months as a result of suspension. To make matters worse, Fabian Schar is also a doubt after missing Switzerland’s recent international match against Israel with a hamstring strain, although initial reports expect him to be fit in time for the PSG game.

PlayerReason
Dan Burn Back Injury
Miguel Almiron Muscle Injury
Harvey Barnes Foot Injury
Sven Botman Knee Injury
Alexander Isak Groin Injury
Jacob Murphy Shoulder Injury
Elliot Anderson Back Injury
Matt Targett Hamstring Injury
Callum Wilson Hamstring Injury
Sandro Tonali Suspended

👕 PSG vs Newcastle- Potential Lineups

Pos. PSG
4-3-3
Newcastle
4-3-3
Pos.
Goalkeeper G. Donnarumma N. Pope Goalkeeper
Right Back A. Hakimi K. Trippier Right Back
Centre Back Marquinhos F. Schar Centre Back
Centre Back M. Škriniar J. Lascelles Centre Back
Left Back L. Hernández L. Hall Left Back
Midfielder W. Zaïre-Emery S. Longstaff Midfielder
Midfielder M. Ugarte B. Guimarães Midfielder
Midfielder Vitinha J. Willock Midfielder
Wide Forward O. Dembele T. Livramento Wide Forward
Striker R. Kolo Muani A. Gordon Striker
Wide Forward K. Mbappe Joelinton Striker

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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