Paris Saint-Germain v AC Milan Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

psg-vs-ac-milan-banner psg-vs-ac-milan-banner
TournamentUEFA Champions League
Timetable20:00 - 25th Oct
PredictionMilan To Win!
Odds4.50
BookmakerTonyBet Sports
The best odds
1.
Tony​Bet Sports
Odds : 4.50
Bet €100 and win €450 if Milan win.
Bonus:
2.
Dach​bet Sports
Odds : 4.33
Bet €100 and win €433 if Milan win.
Bonus:
3.
Betiton
Odds : 4.25
Bet €100 and win €425 if Milan win.
Bonus:
€10
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While PSG looked impressive when defeating Dortmund at the Parc des Princes in UCL gameweek one, their subsequent 4-1 thrashing by Newcastle at St. James Park brought Luis Enrique’s side crashing back down to earth. This defeat has left them second in Group F with a negative goal difference, while defeat to Milan could see them facing an uphill battle to qualify for the round of 16. While Milan are unbeaten in the group so far, they’ve yet to score a single goal, with consecutive 0-0 draws against Newcastle and Dortmund leaving them ideally needing a win in France. In this UCL football betting guide, I’ll take a look at the latest match wagering odds while confirming who I think will prevail here.

🏆 Paris Saint-Germain v AC Milan UCL Prediction

While PSG may now be regulars at the top table of European football, they’ve played a staggering 124 fewer games than Milan in the continent’s premier tournament. The French side have also never beaten the Rossoneri in four previous competitive matches, losing twice in a two-legged semi-final in 1994/95 before consecutive 1-1 draws in the second group stage during the 2000/01 campaign.

It’s interesting to note the clash of styles between these two sides as well, which is borne out by the statistics. For example, PSG boasted average possession of 70.0% during their first two UCL games of 2023/24 (compared to just 48.0% for Milan), while the Serie A side have also had significantly fewer touches of the ball in the middle and attacking thirds. However, Milan have produced a total of 71 shot-creating actions in Group F so far, whereas PSG have contributed just 52 and proved far less efficient in their use of the ball.

Milan have also won a staggering 73.9% of their tackles (compared to 58.3% for PSG), while the French champions have prevailed in just 18.5% of their aerial duels (which is the lowest tally among all sides in the group stage).

Given that Milan have also kept two clean sheets in the UCL this season and produced some impressive counterattacking displays on the road in their run to the Champions League semi-finals last year, I’m backing them to surprise their hosts and edge a low-scoring game in the French capital.

My Prediction: 🏆 PSG 0 – 1 AC Milan ⚽

💯 Paris Saint-Germain v AC Milan UCL Match Odds

Regardless of your preferred UCL football betting sites, the market leading sportsbooks have all published their ante post odds ahead of the clash between PSG and AC Milan. So, here’s a closer look at the most popular match betting markets and the very latest pricing. Moreover, you can explore a thoughtfully selected collection of the best betting sites, offering you a wide array of options for your betting needs

Paris Saint-Germain v AC Milan: Match Winner

The single most popular PSG vs Milan betting market will require you to pick a winner or back the draw. At the time of writing, PSG are the ante post favourites, while it can be argued that Milan offer significant value at an average price of 4.33. Here’s the latest odds in full!

Team
PSG to Win1.801.781.731.771.75
AC Milan to Win4.334.204.254.504.25
Draw3.803.803.753.903.80

Paris Saint-Germain v AC Milan: Both Teams To Score

Milan’s defensive strength means that both sides have scored in just four of their 10 games in all competitions this season, with the Rossoneri keeping six clean sheets so far. As for PSG, both sides have scored in 54.5% of their matches in 2023/24, so the BTTS betting market is incredibly tough to call ahead of this Champions League match.

Yes/No
Yes1.631.701.601.671.65
No2.102.102.202.152.15

Paris Saint-Germain v AC Milan: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

This is another even money market that’s tough to call ahead of Milan’s trip to Paris, with the away side’s 10 matches in 2023/24 producing just 24 goals at a rate of 2.40 per game. However, PSG’s 11 matches have yielded 34 goals at a rate of 3.09 per game, so how you wager here will depend on which team you think will be able to successfully impose their playing style on the other.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals1.671.701.651.751.70
Under 2.5 Goals2.102.102.092.102.10

✔️ Paris Saint-Germain v AC Milan - Betting Tips

This is definitely one of the more challenging UCL matches to bet on in gameweek three, due to the respective qualities of each side and their statistical performances so far this season. However, I’ve prepared some expert betting tips to make the most informed selections ahead of this game.

  • Tip 1: Back Milan to Win: Outright match wagering doesn’t always offer tangible value, but it can certainly be generative when you choose to back a betting underdog. In this case, Milan are priced as high as 4.50 with TonyBet to win in Paris, but this doesn’t do justice to the Rossoneri’s impressive form, defensive organisation and renowned ability to threaten on the counterattack. So, I’d recommend getting on Milan to win here, but place your bet as early as possible and before the ante post prices start to shorten.
  • Tip 2: Back Under 2.5 Being Scored: The current over/under odds imply a higher probability that more than 2.5 goals will be scored in the game between PSG and Milan. This means that there’s more value to be found in backing under 2.5 goals being scored in the game, especially if Milan are able to impose themselves defensively and restrict a PSG side that occasionally struggles to turn dominance of the ball into clear-cut chances. You can currently get on this market at the competitive price of 2.10 with Dachbet Sports too.
  • Tip 3: Back Milan to Win With Under 3.5 Goals Scored: If Milan are to win in Paris, it’s certainly likely that the match will be relatively low scoring. So, you could also consider creating a combination bet that simultaneously backs Milan to win and and there being under 3.5 goals scored in the game at the generous price of 5.50 with Betway. By leveraging the under 3.5 goals betting line, you can also create a little extra insurance for your stake without overly compromising your potential returns.

1️⃣ PSG Update

PSG’s 4-1 defeat in Newcastle was a chastening experience, although it was the French champion’s first loss in six matches since a 3-2 home reversal against Nice on September 15th. The team’s Ligue 1 form has certainly improved of late, with three wins in four games and a goals for tally of 10 during this sequence. The talismanic Kylian Mbappe is also in good form with nine goals in 10 matches in all competitions this season, so they’ll kick off against Milan in relatively good shape. However, the French side will need to improve on their offensive efficiency if they’re to defeat their Serie A opponents, especially having produced an average of just 2.00 shots on target per 90 in this season’s UCL so far.

Last 5 Games
PSG 3
Strasbourg 0
21.10.23
Ligue 1
Rennes 1
PSG 3
08.10.23
Ligue 1
Newcastle 4
PSG 1
04.10.23
Champions League
Clermont Foot 0
PSG 0
30.09.23
Ligue 1
PSG 4
Marseille 0
24.09.23
Ligue 1

Left back Nuno Mendes remains a long-term absentee with a torn hamstring, while Presnel Kimpembe is also continuing his recovery from a significant Achilles tendon rupture. Former Real Madrid winger Marco Asensio is also a doubt with an unknown injury, while reserve keeper Sergio Rico remains unavailable following the serious head injury he incurred during a horse-riding accident.

Player Reason
Nuno Mendes Hamstring Injury
Presnel Kimpembe Achilles Tendon Rupture
Marco Asensio Unknown Injury
Sergio Rico Head Injury

2️⃣ Milan Update

While some wouldn’t even want to use a free bet to back Milan in this game, Stefano Pioli’s side are in excellent form and unbeaten in six games since a 5-1 thrashing by city rivals Inter on September 16th. This result was also something of an anomaly, as it remains their sole defeat in 10 matches since the beginning of the season and their only loss in 13 dating back to May 16th. Milan have also taken an impressive 39 shots at goal during their two UCL matches so far this season, which is the third highest tally of the competition (behind Man City and Real Madrid) and helps to back up their more obvious defensive credentials.

Last 5 Games
Genoa 0
Milan 1
07.10.23
Serie A
Borussia Dortmund 0
AC Milan 0
04.10.23
Champions League
Milan 2
Lazio 0
30.09.23
Serie A
Cagliari 1
Milan 3
27.09.23
Serie A
Milan 1
Verona 0
23.09.23
Serie A

Centre back Mattia Caldara is absent for Milan after undergoing ankle surgery, while defensive midfielder Ismaël Bennacer is also recovering after a knee injury and isn’t expected back until early November. Exciting winger Samuel Chukwueze is a doubt with a hamstring injury too, while backup keeper Marco Sportiello could miss out with a muscle complaint.

Player Reason
Mattia Caldara Ankle Surgery
Ismaël Bennacer Knee Injury
Samuel Chukwueze Hamstring Strain
Marco Sportiello Muscle Injury

👕 Paris Saint-Germain v AC Milan - Potential Lineups

Pos. PSG
4-3-3
AC Milan
4-2-3-1
Pos.
Goalkeeper G. Donnarumma M. Maignan Goalkeeper
Right Back A. Hakimi D. Calabria Right Back
Centre Back Marquinhos M. Thiaw Centre Back
Centre Back M. Škriniar F. Tomori Centre Back
Left Back L. Hernández T. Hernández Left Back
Midfielder W. Zaïre-Emery Y. Musah Midfielder
Midfielder M. Ugarte T. Pobega Midfielder
Midfielder Vitinha T. Reijnders Midfielder
Wide Forward O. Dembele C. Pulisic Wide Forward
Striker G. Ramos O. Giroud Striker
Wide Forward K. Mbappe R. Leão Wide Forward

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of different sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.

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