Newcastle United v Borussia Dortmund Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

🏆 Newcastle United v Borussia Dortmund UCL Prediction

Newcastle’s 0-0 draw against Milan in September was their first Champions League match in more than 20 years, since a 2-0 defeat at Barcelona on March 19th, 2003. Overall, the club has only played 26 matches in the UEFA Champions League throughout its entire history, so it should come as no surprise that they’ve never met Borussia Dortmund in a competitive encounter.

Despite a tough start to the 2023/24 season, Newcastle are now eight games unbeaten in all competitions, during which time they’ve scored 22 goals and conceded just three. Their defensive organisation has certainly been evident during their two UCL matches so far, with the side having won 26 tackles in total (the fifth-highest tally in the competition) and 59.1% of their aerial duels. As for Dortmund, their 2-0 defeat at PSG remains the sole loss of their entire 2023/24 campaign so far, while their tally of 121 ball recoveries in the UCL is bettered only by Galatasaray, RB Salzburg, Benfica and Inter.

Clearly, both of these sides are tenacious out of possession and difficult to beat, although Dortmund have averaged more possession of the ball in the UCL this season (45.0% vs 37.0%). However, it may suit Newcastle to play primarily on the counterattack (just as they did against PSG), so I’m tipping them to secure a close win in an entertaining match.

💯 Newcastle United v Borussia Dortmund UCL Match Odds

You can access a large range of football betting markets pertaining to Newcastle vs Borussia Dortmund, including the match winner, BTTS and the over /under on the total number of goals you think will be scored in the game. Let’s take a closer look at these markets and their latest odds!

🏅 Newcastle United v Borussia Dortmund: Match Winner

Despite their relative lack of UCL experience, Newcastle are the odds-on favourites to beat Dortmund at St. James Park. But is there value in backing this outcome, and what price can you get on Dortmund winning?

Team
Newcastle to Win	1.73	1.75	1.71	1.70	1.75
Dortmund to Win	5.00	4.33	4.35	4.50	4.25
Draw	3.80	3.80	3.75	3.80	3.80

⚽ Newcastle United v Borussia Dortmund: Both Teams To Score

When it comes to backing both teams to score (BTTS) or otherwise, it’s important to note that Newcastle have only failed to hit the back of the net in two of their 12 competitive games this season. Dortmund have also drawn blanks in just two of their 11 matches across all competitions, although both of these came in the UEFA Champions League (against PSG and Milan).

Yes	1.67	1.70	1.64	1.67	1.65
No	2.00	2.10	2.13	2.10	2.15

🥅 Newcastle United v Borussia Dortmund: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Wagering on the over/under market for total goals scored opens up a number of different betting lines, with 2.5 goals scored being the single most popular. Interestingly, the 23 matches played by Newcastle United and Dortmund this season have produced 73 goals at a rate of 3.17 per game, and this is definitely reflected in the over/under odds.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals	1.67	1.70	1.69	1.67	1.70
Under 2.5 Goals	2.10	2.10	2.03	2.05	2.10

1️⃣ Newcastle Update

Newcastle are unbeaten in eight games since a 3-1 defeat at Brighton on September 2nd, while Eddie Howe’s men have won six and drawn two of these matches. The standout result in this sequence was the 4-1 thumping of PSG in Champions League gameweek two, which was remarkable given that they only had 27% of possession during the game. Incredibly, the four goals scored in their two group-stage games so far dramatically exceed their expected goals value of just 1.2, which is currently the lowest in the tournament. So, their relative lack of possession in UCL matches is clearly being offset by a highly efficient and ruthless attack.

Powerful midfielder Joelinton has recently boosted the Magpies with his return from injury, but Joe Willock remains absent with a hamstring strain. Winger Harvey Barnes will also miss out with a foot injury, while Sven Botman remains a doubt as he continues to struggle with a knee complaint.

2️⃣ Borussia Dortmund Update

Dortmund have recovered relatively well from their title heartbreak at the end of last season, losing just one of their 11 matches so far this season and remaining unbeaten in the Bundesliga. However, they were comprehensively beaten by PSG in gameweek one of the Champions League, before being held to a disappointing goalless draw by Milan at Signal Iduna Park last time out. Despite attempting 32 shots in these two matches, only four of these have been on target, and while their expected goals tally is higher than Newcastle’s at 1.6, they’ve yet to score in the competition this season.

Dortmund will be without experienced right-back Thomas Meunier against Newcastle, with the 32-year-old having now missed 11 matches with a muscle injury. Fellow right-back Mateu Morey is also struggling with a knee injury, while precocious striker Youssoufa Moukoko is considered to be a doubt with a hamstring strain.

👕 Newcastle United v Borussia Dortmund - Potential Lineups

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.