Newcastle United v Borussia Dortmund Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

newcastle-united-v-borussia-dortmund-prediction newcastle-united-v-borussia-dortmund-prediction
TournamentChampions League
Timetable20:00 GMT 25 Oct 23
PredictionNewcastle To Win!
Odds@1.75
BookmakerLegend Play Sports
Newcastle To Win!
The best odds
1.
Legend Play Sports
Odds : 1.75
Bet €100 and win €175 if Newcastle win.
Bonus:
2.
betway
Odds : 1.75
Bet €100 and win €175 if Newcastle win.
Bonus:
€50+ 50 Free Spins
3.
Dach​bet Sports
Odds : 1.73
Bet €100 and win €173 if Newcastle win.
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newcastle-united-v-borussia-dortmund-prediction newcastle-united-v-borussia-dortmund-prediction

While Newcastle were slightly fortunate to leave Milan with a point after their opening UCL game in 2023/24, their subsequent 4-1 thrashing of PSG at St. James Park well and truly announced their return to the top table of European football. As for gameweek three, rivals Borussia Dortmund, they’re embarked on their eighth successive Champions League campaign but remain without a win so far in Group F having been beaten 2-0 by PSG and held to a goalless draw by Milan at Signal Iduna Park. But can the Magpies continue their superb UCL form, or will Dortmund’s pedigree prove decisive? I’ll make my own prediction below while comparing the latest ante post prices from the best Champions League betting sites.

🏆 Newcastle United v Borussia Dortmund UCL Prediction

Newcastle’s 0-0 draw against Milan in September was their first Champions League match in more than 20 years, since a 2-0 defeat at Barcelona on March 19th, 2003. Overall, the club has only played 26 matches in the UEFA Champions League throughout its entire history, so it should come as no surprise that they’ve never met Borussia Dortmund in a competitive encounter.

Despite a tough start to the 2023/24 season, Newcastle are now eight games unbeaten in all competitions, during which time they’ve scored 22 goals and conceded just three. Their defensive organisation has certainly been evident during their two UCL matches so far, with the side having won 26 tackles in total (the fifth-highest tally in the competition) and 59.1% of their aerial duels. As for Dortmund, their 2-0 defeat at PSG remains the sole loss of their entire 2023/24 campaign so far, while their tally of 121 ball recoveries in the UCL is bettered only by Galatasaray, RB Salzburg, Benfica and Inter.

Clearly, both of these sides are tenacious out of possession and difficult to beat, although Dortmund have averaged more possession of the ball in the UCL this season (45.0% vs 37.0%). However, it may suit Newcastle to play primarily on the counterattack (just as they did against PSG), so I’m tipping them to secure a close win in an entertaining match.

My Prediction: 🏆 Newcastle 2 – 1 Borussia Dortmund ⚽

💯 Newcastle United v Borussia Dortmund UCL Match Odds

You can access a large range of football betting markets pertaining to Newcastle vs Borussia Dortmund, including the match winner, BTTS and the over /under on the total number of goals you think will be scored in the game. Let’s take a closer look at these markets and their latest odds!

🏅 Newcastle United v Borussia Dortmund: Match Winner

Despite their relative lack of UCL experience, Newcastle are the odds-on favourites to beat Dortmund at St. James Park. But is there value in backing this outcome, and what price can you get on Dortmund winning?

Team
Newcastle to Win1.731.751.711.701.75
Dortmund to Win5.004.334.354.504.25
Draw3.803.803.753.803.80

⚽ Newcastle United v Borussia Dortmund: Both Teams To Score

When it comes to backing both teams to score (BTTS) or otherwise, it’s important to note that Newcastle have only failed to hit the back of the net in two of their 12 competitive games this season. Dortmund have also drawn blanks in just two of their 11 matches across all competitions, although both of these came in the UEFA Champions League (against PSG and Milan).

Yes/No
Yes1.671.701.641.671.65
No2.002.102.132.102.15

🥅 Newcastle United v Borussia Dortmund: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Wagering on the over/under market for total goals scored opens up a number of different betting lines, with 2.5 goals scored being the single most popular. Interestingly, the 23 matches played by Newcastle United and Dortmund this season have produced 73 goals at a rate of 3.17 per game, and this is definitely reflected in the over/under odds.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals1.671.701.691.671.70
Under 2.5 Goals2.102.102.032.052.10

✔️ Newcastle United v Borussia Dortmund - Betting Tips

Navigating these markets can be challenging, especially when betting on potentially close and difficult-to-call matches such as Newcastle vs Borussia Dortmund. So, I’ve prepared some insightful betting tips to help you unlock the optimal value for your hard-earned bankroll.

  • Tip 1: Back Newcastle to Win: While Newcastle are the clear favourites to beat Dortmund at St. James Park, they can still be backed at the relatively competitive price of 1.75 with LegendPlay. This offers at least nominal value, while it reflects the fact that they’ve only lost two of their previous 13 home matches in all competitions since February 18th (both against Liverpool). They also compiled the fifth-best home record in the Premier League during the 2022/23 campaign.
  • Tip 2: Back Both Sides to Score: As I’ve already touched on, both of these sides have only failed to score in two matches so far this season, while Newcastle are averaging 2.41 goals per game across all competitions. Dortmund themselves average 2.09 goals per game from 11 matches in their 2023/24 campaign, so I expect both teams to get on the scoresheet at St. James Park. You can get on this market at the relatively competitive price of 1.70 with Betway too.
  • Tip 3: Back Newcastle to Win and Over 2.5 Goals: If you’re looking to leverage a free bet offer with a slightly higher value wager, I’d recommend backing Newcastle to win and over 2.5 goals being scored in the game at the generous price of 3.30 with Betway. This type of combination betting can be highly lucrative when deployed strategically, while it makes logical sense given Newcastle’s status as overt match winner favourites and the attacking potency of both sides.

1️⃣ Newcastle Update

Newcastle are unbeaten in eight games since a 3-1 defeat at Brighton on September 2nd, while Eddie Howe’s men have won six and drawn two of these matches. The standout result in this sequence was the 4-1 thumping of PSG in Champions League gameweek two, which was remarkable given that they only had 27% of possession during the game. Incredibly, the four goals scored in their two group-stage games so far dramatically exceed their expected goals value of just 1.2, which is currently the lowest in the tournament. So, their relative lack of possession in UCL matches is clearly being offset by a highly efficient and ruthless attack.

Last 5 Games
Newcastle 4
Crystal Palace 0
21.10.23
Premier League
West Ham 2
Newcastle 2
08.10.23
Premier League
Newcastle 4
PSG 1
04.10.23
Champions League
Newcastle 2
Burnley 0
30.09.23
Premier League
Newcastle 1
Manchester City 0
27.09.23
EFL Cup

Powerful midfielder Joelinton has recently boosted the Magpies with his return from injury, but Joe Willock remains absent with a hamstring strain. Winger Harvey Barnes will also miss out with a foot injury, while Sven Botman remains a doubt as he continues to struggle with a knee complaint.

Player Reason
Joe Willock Hamstring Injury
Harvey Barnes Foot Injury
Sven Botman Knee Injury

2️⃣ Borussia Dortmund Update

Dortmund have recovered relatively well from their title heartbreak at the end of last season, losing just one of their 11 matches so far this season and remaining unbeaten in the Bundesliga. However, they were comprehensively beaten by PSG in gameweek one of the Champions League, before being held to a disappointing goalless draw by Milan at Signal Iduna Park last time out. Despite attempting 32 shots in these two matches, only four of these have been on target, and while their expected goals tally is higher than Newcastle’s at 1.6, they’ve yet to score in the competition this season.

Last 5 Games
Borussia Dortmund 1
Werder Bremen 0
20.10.23
German Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund 4
Union Berlin 2
07.10.23
German Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund 0
AC Milan 0
04.10.23
Champions League
Hoffenheim 1
Borussia Dortmund 3
29.09.23
German Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund 1
Wolfsburg 0
23.09.23
German Bundesliga

Dortmund will be without experienced right-back Thomas Meunier against Newcastle, with the 32-year-old having now missed 11 matches with a muscle injury. Fellow right-back Mateu Morey is also struggling with a knee injury, while precocious striker Youssoufa Moukoko is considered to be a doubt with a hamstring strain.

Player Reason
Thomas Meunier Muscle Injury
Mateu Morey Knee Injury
Youssoufa Moukoko Hamstring Strain

👕 Newcastle United v Borussia Dortmund - Potential Lineups

Pos. Newcastle
4-3-3
Borussia Dortmund
4-2-3-1
Pos.
Goalkeeper N. Pope G. Kobel Goalkeeper
Right Back K. Trippier J. Ryerson Right Back
Centre Back J. Lascelles M. Hummels Centre Back
Centre Back F. Schär N. Schlotterbeck Centre Back
Left Back D. Burn R. Bensebaini Left Back
Midfielder S. Longstaff E. Can Midfielder
Midfielder B. Guimarães S. Özcan Midfielder
Midfielder S. Tonali M. Reus Midfielder
Wide Forward M. Almirón J. Brandt Wide Forward
Striker A. Isak N. Füllkrug Striker
Wide Forward A. Gordon D. Malen Wide Forward

Newcastle To Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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