Napoli v 1. FC Union Berlin Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips
| Timetable | 17:45 GMT, 8th Nov 23 |
| Prediction | Napoli To Win! |
| Odds | 1.40 |
| Bookmaker | TonyBet Sports |
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No Champions League side is in worse form than Union Berlin, who have now lost a staggering 12 consecutive games since a 4-1 Bundesliga win at Darmstadt on August 26th. This run has included three straight UCL defeats, while Urs Fischer’s ailing charges were beaten 1-0 by Napoli at the Olympiastadion on October 24th. However, Napoli have also produced inconsistent form and results through 2023/24, while they were defeated 3-2 by Real Madrid in their last Champions League home game. Bur can Berlin really snap their losing streak in Naples, or will the hosts triumph and book their place in the round of 16? Find out more in this detailed football betting guide and match prediction!
🏆 Napoli v 1. FC Union Berlin UCL Prediction
This is Berlin’s debut campaign in the Champions League, while it’s only the fourth time that they’ve ever appeared in any official UEFA competition. However, it could scarcely have gone any worse so far, with the team having recorded three successive defeats and scored just two goals.
Overall, the side’s run of 12 successive losses is a huge cause for concern, as the squad seems overly burdened at this level and has struggled to cope with the additional demands of Champions League football. While two of their three domestic victories in 2023/24 have come on the road, they’ve only prevailed twice in 10 away games dating back to April 23rd, while last season’s surprise title contenders have now fallen into the Bundesliga relegation zone.
As for Napoli, they’re starting to recover from an indifferent start to the season, losing just two of 11 games since September 2nd. While they’ve also shown slight vulnerability at home during the campaign (they’ve lost three times here so far), they’re statistically much more effective than Union Berlin, producing an average 4.33 shots-on-target per 90 in the 2023/24 Champions League. Conversely, Berlin rank bottom for this metric and have attempted an average of just 2.33 shots-on-target per game.
I also expect Napoli to start fast and dominate possession at the Diego Armando Maradona Stadium, in a bid to overwhelm their struggling opponents. Ultimately, this could translate into a comfortable win for the home side, and one where Union Berlin may struggle to sustain any kind of attacking threat.
My Prediction: 🏆 Napoli 3 - 0 Union Berlin ⚽
💯 Napoli v 1. FC Union Berlin UCL Match Odds
Betinireland have produced a number of comprehensive bookmaker reviews, but regardless of which sportsbook you choose to wager with, you’ll find a huge range of betting markets pertaining to Napoli vs Union Berlin. But which of these markets offer the most value?
🏅 Napoli v 1. FC Union Berlin: Match Winner
Napoli are odds-on favourites to beat Berlin with the market leading betting sites, while their ante post price has continued to drift in recent days. This has much to do with their opponents extended run of poor form, with Union Berlin priced as high as 9.00 win prevail in Naples. We have selected the best betting sites where you can get additional infomation.
| Team | .png) |  |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli to Win | 1.36 | 1.38 | 1.37 | 1.40 | 1.36 |
| Union Berlin to Win | 8.00 | 7.50 | 7.50 | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| Draw | 4.75 | 5.00 | 4.90 | 4.50 | 5.00 |
Napoli v 1. FC Union Berlin: Both Teams To Score
Union Berlin have only scored 17 goals in their 15 matches so far this season, while they’ve drawn blanks in nine of these games. In fact, they haven’t scored in the Bundesliga since October 7th, while despite their inconsistent form, Napoli have scored in all but one of their last 11 games since a 2-1 home defeat to Lazio on September 2nd.
| Yes/No | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.89 | 1.91 | 1.91 |
| No | 1.80 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.90 | 1.80 |
Napoli v 1. FC Union Berlin: Over/Under 2.5 Goals
The over/under betting odds imply a slightly higher probability of more than 2.5 goals being scored in this game, although this has much to do with Napoli’s attacking threat and quality. For example, despite Berlin’s struggles in front of goal, the 29 matches contested between these two teams have yielded 90 goals at a rate of 3.10 per game, and both have displayed defensive vulnerability at times in 2023/24.
| Under/Over | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 1.62 | 1.67 | 1.62 | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 2.10 | 2.20 | 2.16 | 2.10 | 2.15 |
✔️ Napoli v 1. FC Union Berlin - Betting Tips
Union Berlin were relatively competitive in their 1-0 defeat against Napoli in gameweek three, and it can be argued that the ante post odds don’t necessarily reflect this. So, here are some tips and insights to help you navigate the available markets successfully. Matched betting can be helpful if you want to make more informed bets.
- Tip 1: Back Napoli to Win With a Handicap of -1.75 Goals: There’s little value to be found when backing Napoli to win outright, but their obvious superiority and the poor form of their rivals may enable you to create additional value through handicapping. For example, you can back Napoli to prevail with a handicap of -1.75 goals at an enhanced price of 2.38 with LegendPlay Sports, creating a scenario where the hosts only have to win by two clear goals for the wager to be successful.
- Tip 2: Back Both Teams Not to Score: At the heart of Union Berlin’s poor run of form is their issues in front of goal, as they struggle to create chances and sustain attacks in all competitions. In fact, they’ve now failed to score in their last five matches since the most recent international break, with their last goals coming in a 4-2 defeat at Borussia Dortmund on October 7th. So, there’s definite value in backing both sides not to score at a price of 1.90 with TonyBet.
- Tip 3: Back Giacomo Raspadori to Score at Any Time: Napoli talisman Victor Osimhen remains absent with a hamstring injury, but Giacomo Raspadori has stepped up in the UCL and scored one goal in his single start so far this season. This goal was also the second half winner against Berlin in gameweek three, so I think there’s significant value in backing the Italian forward as an anytime scorer at a price of 2.30 with Betway. He’ll certainly be afforded chances to score in the game against Berlin.
1️⃣ Napoli Update
While the jury is out on whether Napoli have finally shrugged off their hangover after winning a long awaited Scudetto in 2022/23, they have at least recorded an upturn in form of late and lost just two of their previous 11 games since the beginning of September. Sure, they’ve showcased vulnerability at home with three defeats in six matches since the beginning of the season (they were only beaten twice in normal time at the Diego Armando Maradona Stadium through the whole of the previous campaign), but this has been influenced in part by the extended absence of star forward Victor Osimhen.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Salernitana 0 Napoli 2 | 04.11.23 Serie A |
| Napoli 2 AC Milan 2 | 29.10.23 Serie A |
| Union Berlin 0 Napoli 1 | 24.10.23 Champions League |
| Verona 1 Napoli 3 | 21.10.23 Serie A |
| Napoli 1 Fiorentina 3 | 08.10.23 Serie A |
The loss of Victor Osimhen to a hamstring injury has been a huge blow to Napoli, with the striker having now missed five games and facing a lengthy spell on the sidelines. However, this is Napoli’s only injury concern, and otherwise the squad is at full strength ahead of Berlin’s visit.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Victor Osimhen | Hamstring Injury |
2️⃣ Union Berlin Update
Whether you were going to place a high risk wager or deploy a free bet on your account, it would be a brave move to back Union Berlin to win any game at the moment. After all, their 12 match losing streak is the worst of any team in Europe’s big five leagues, while they’ve actually only won five of their previous 17 games since April 23rd. Their tally of two wins in 10 away matches dating back to last season is also a huge cause for concern, while their struggles on the road in the UCL are being exacerbated by their struggles in possession (they’ve averaged just 34.3% of the ball so far in the 2023/24 campaign).
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Union Berlin 0 Eintracht Frankfurt 3 | 04.11.23 Bundesliga |
| VfB Stuttgart 1 Union Berlin 0 | 31.10.23 DFB-Pokal |
| Werder 2 Union Berlin 0 | 28.10.23 Bundesliga |
| Union Berlin 0 Napoli 1 | 24.10.23 Champions League |
| Union Berlin 0 VfB Stuttgart 3 | 21.10.23 Bundesliga |
Key to Berlin’s struggles is the absence of midfielder András Schäfer, who has now missed 17 games with foot surgery and will remain unavailable for the time being. Defenders Josip Juranovic and Danilho Doekhi may also miss out with slight knocks, with the pair having now been absent for six and five matches respectively.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| András Schäfer | Foot Injury |
| Josip Juranovic | Knock |
| Danilho Doekhi | Knock |
👕 Napoli vs Union Berlin - Potential Lineups
| Pos. | Napoli 4-3-3 | Union Berlin 5-3-2 | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goalkeeper | A. Meret | F. Rønnow | Goalkeeper |
| Right Back | G. Di Lorenzo | C. Trimmel | Right Wing Back |
| Centre Back | L. Østigård | L. Bonucci | Right Centre Back |
| Centre Back | Natan | R. Knoche | Centre Back |
| Left Back | M. Olivera | D. Leite | Left Centre Back |
| Midfielder | S. Lobotka | R. Gosens | Left Wing Back |
| Midfielder | P. Zieliński | A. Laïdouni | Midfielder |
| Midfielder | A. Zambo Anguissa | A. Král | Midfielder |
| Wide Forward | M. Politano | J. Haberer | Midfielder |
| Striker | G. Raspadori | S. Becker | Striker |
| Wide Forward | K. Kvaratskhelia | K. Behrens | Striker |
✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster
Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.
Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of different sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.
