Manchester United v Bayern Munich Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

man-united-v-bayern-prediction-logo man-united-v-bayern-prediction-logo
TournamentChampions League
Timetable20:00 GMT, 12th Dec 23
PredictionBayern Munich to Win!
BookmakerLegend Play Sports
Bayern Munich to Win!
The best odds
Legend Play Sports
Odds : 2.55
Bet €100 and win €255 if Bayern win.
Dach​bet Sports
Odds : 2.50
Bet €100 and win €250 if Bayern win.
Odds : 2.41
Bet €100 and win €241 if Bayern win.
man-united-v-bayern-logo man-united-v-bayern-logo

Manchester United’s gameweek six clash against Bayern could well be their last match in the 2023/24 Champions League, with the team’s fate out of their own hands after a 3-3 draw at Galatasaray last time out. While they must beat Bayern to have any chance of reaching the UCL round of 16, they also need FC Copenhagen and Gala to share a draw at the former’s Parken Stadium. The Red Devils’ inconsistency also means that it’s hard to know which iteration of Erik ten Hag’s sign will turn up, while Bayern have already qualified and topped Group A. So, can United at least claim the three points that they need to stay competitive here, and how are the best betting sites pricing this outcome?

🏆 Manchester United v Bayern Munich UCL Prediction

Manchester United and Bayern have now met 12 times in the UEFA Champions League, with the Bavarian side winning on five occasions and five matches ending in draws. While United have triumphed on just two occasions, one of these instances came in the iconic 1998/99 UCL final (when the Red Devils scored twice in stoppage time to achieve a thrilling 2-1 win).

The previous encounter in Group A saw Bayern win 4-3 at the Allianz Arena, although this scoreline doesn’t really reflect the Bundesliga outfit’s dominance. More specifically, Bayern boasted 60% possession and attempted 19 shots to United’s nine, while Thomas Tuchel’s men also forced Andre Onana into five important saves.

However, it’s interesting to note that United’s xG value in noticeably higher than Bayern’s (10.3 vs 8.1), although Bayern have outperformed their own metric by +2.9 goals. This superb level of efficiency is thanks in no small part to Harry Kane, who has scored four Champions League goals this season from a personal xG value of just 3.0.

United have certainly retained a significant goal threat throughout their troubled UCL campaign, only to be let down by porous finishing and individual defensive errors. Still, they boast the tournament’s joint top goalscorer in Danish starlet Rasmus Højlund, while I think that their pressing need to win could prove the difference between the two sides at OT.

My Prediction: 🏆 Man United 3 – 2 Bayern Munich ⚽

💯 Manchester United v Bayern Munich UCL Match Odds

Across all of Betinireland’s recommended sites (which are analysed comprehensively in the platform’s bookmaker reviews) offer access to a huge range of Bayern vs Man United markets. The most popular wager types include the match winner, BTTS and the total number of goals that will be scored in the game, so let’s take a look at the latest odds!

🏅 Manchester United v Bayern Munich: Match Winner

Intriguingly, Manchester United are the narrow favourites to defeat Bayern at Old Trafford, with their average price of 2.50 implying a 40% probability of a home win. Conversely, Bayern can be backed at around 2.63 to prevail, which means that they have a 38.02% chance of achieving this objective. Regardless, the bookies are expecting an incredibly tight game in Manchester.

Man United to Win2.502.402.412.402.55
Bayern Munich to Win2.602.502.532.632.50

⚽ Manchester United v Bayern Munich: Both Teams To Score

While both teams have only scored in five of United’s 14 EPL games, this has been the case in four of the Red Devils’ five UCL encounters in 2023/24. Bayern’s 20 matches in all competitions have seen both sides hit the back of the net on 11 occasions, with Tuchel’s men keeping eight clean sheets (one in the Champions League) and failing to score just twice (including a home game with Copenhagen in gameweek five).


🥅 Manchester United v Bayern Munich: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

These two sides have contested 41 matches in all competitions this season, with these encounters producing an impressive 144 goals at a rate of 3.51 per game. Bayern alone have scored 59 goals in 20 matches at a rate of 2.95 per 90 minutes, so the odds imply a high probability of over 2.5 goals being scored in this particular contest.

Over 2.5 Goals1.551.551.531.531.53
Under 2.5 Goals2.302.302.322.402.38

✔️ Manchester United v Bayern Munich - Betting Tips

If you have one or more free bets on your sportsbook account, you may want to engage in matched betting ahead of the Man United vs Bayern game. Simply lay a back wager on Manchester United to win at a licensed betting exchange, and you can cover all potential match outcomes in one fell swoop. Here are some additional betting tips to help you get the most out of your bankroll.

  • Tip 1: Back Over 3.5 Goals to be Scored: While over/under wagering activity is usually focused on the 2.5 goals betting line, the matches featuring these sides this season have produced an average of 3.51 goals per game. United (12 goals) and Bayern (11) are the fifth and seventh top scorers respectively in the 2023/24 Champions League, while the home side’s desperate need to win should contribute to an open game. So, there’s value in backing over 3.5 goals being scored at a price of 2.55 with TonyBet.
  • Tip 2: Back Man United to Win and Both Sides to Score: I definitely expect both sides to find the net at Old Trafford, while Manchester United have already showed their ability to create chances in this season’s Champions League. So long as they showcase improved efficiency in front of goal and cut out the individual errors, I therefore think there’s value in backing United to win and both sides to score at the enhanced price of 4.00 with Betway.
  • Tip 3: Back The First Goal to Be Scored Inside 10 Minutes: United have scored twice in the opening 15 minutes of Champions League matches this season without conceding, while Bayern have done so once. Erik ten Hag’s men should also come out of the blocks quickly at what’s sure to be an electric Old Trafford, which will also create space for Bayern’s ruthless attack in transition from the outset. So, I’d consider backing the first goal to be scored in the opening 10 minutes at a price of price of 4.00 with Dachbet Sports.

1️⃣ Manchester United Update

United’s failure to maintain either a 2-0 or 3-1 lead at Galatasaray has left their Group A fate out of their own hands, as they now need to beat Bayern at Old Trafford and hope that the Turkish Süper Lig side can only draw with Copenhagen in Denmark. The side subsequently slumped to their 10th defeat of the 2023/24 season at Newcastle, slipping to seventh in the EPL table and four points off the confirmed Champions League places in the process. In all competitions, United have also shipped 34 goals in just 21 matches so far (their highest tally at this stage since the 1962/63 season), while they’ve only managed to score 31.

Last 5 Games
Newcastle 1
Man United 0
Premier League
Galatasaray 3
Man United 3
Champions League
Everton 0
Man United 3
Premier League
Man United 1
Luton Town 0
Premier League
FC Copenhagen 4
Man United 3
Champions League

United remain depleted in defence and midfield, with Lisandro Martinez (foot injury), Jonny Evans (hamstring) and Tyrell Malacia (knee) are absent from the back line. In the middle of the pitch, Brazilian Casemiro (knock) and playmaker Cristian Eriksen (knee) have been ruled out until later in the month, while Mason Mount will miss out with an unknown injury too. Young winger Amad Diallo’s knee injury makes him a long-term absentee, while Jadon Sancho continues to train away from the first team after his spat with ten Hag.

Lisandro Martinez Foot Injury
Jonny Evans Hamstring Injury
Tyrell Malacia Knee Injury
Casemiro Knock
Cristian Eriksen Knee Injury
Mason Mount Unknown Injury
Amad Diallo Knee Injury

2️⃣ Bayern Munich Update

Since their 3-0 reversal to RB Leipzig in the DFL-Supercup on August 12th, Bayern have lost just one of 19 matches in all competitions, while they’ve already qualified from Champions League Group A and have 13 points from their five games. Central to this has been the exceptional form of talisman Harry Kane, who has plundered 22 goals in just 18 appearances and four in five UCL outings from just 12 attempts on goal. Leroy Sane and Jamal Musiala have also been highly productive in this season’s UCL (the latter is averaging 1.02 goal creating actions per 90), although it will be interesting to see whether Tuchel fields all of his star players at Old Trafford with first place already assured.

Last 5 Games
Bayern 0
FC Copenhagen 0
Champions League
Cologne 0
Bayern 1
Bayern 4
Heidenheim 2
Bayern 2
Galatasaray 1
Champions League
Dortmund 0
Bayern 4

Interestingly, Musiala has a slight hamstring strain and may be unavailable at Old Trafford anyway, while centre back Matthijs de Ligt (inner knee ligament tear) remains a long-term absentee. Young goalkeeper Tom Hülsmann (hamstring) and central defender Tarek Buchmann (torn muscle bundle) are expected to miss out too, as is 19-year-old right back Bouna Sarr (who’s suffering with a cruciate ligament tear).

Jamal Musiala Hamstring Strain
Matthijs de Ligt Inner Knee Ligament Tear
Tom Hülsmann Hamstring Injury
Tarek Buchmann Torn Muscle Bundle
Bouna Sarr Cruciate Ligament Tear

👕 Man United v Bayern - Potential Lineups

Pos. Man United
Goalkeeper A. Onana M. Neuer Goalkeeper
Right Back D. Dalot K. Laimer Right Back
Centre Back H. Maguire Kim Min-jae Centre Back
Centre Back V. Lindelof D. Upamecano Centre Back
Left Back L. Shaw F. Krätzig Left Back
Midfielder K. Mainoo A. Pavlović Midfielder
Midfielder S. McTominay R. Guerreiro Midfielder
Midfielder B. Fernandes T. Müller Midfielder
Wide Forward M. Rashford L. Sane Wide Forward
Striker R. Hojlund H. Kane Striker
Wide Forward A. Garnacho M. Tel Wide Forward

Bayern Munich to Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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