Tournament | Champions League |
Timetable | 17:45 GMT, 28th Nov 2023 |
Prediction | Lazio to Win! |
Odds | 1.50 |
Bookmaker | Dachbet Sports |
While Champions League Group E remains relatively tight with just two points separating the top three sides, Celtic are rooted to the bottom with a single point from their four games. Anything but a win in the Italian capital in gameweek five will officially eliminate them from the competition, while also ruling them out of contention for a Europa League spot. As for Lazio, a victory here will put them in pole position to reach the UCL round of 16, while the best betting sites are making them favourites to beat their SPL opponents. But who do I think will win in Rome?
🏆 Lazio v Celtic UCL Prediction
Lazio broke Celtic hearts in gameweek 2 of this season’s Champions League, as Spanish veteran Pedro plundered a 95th-minute winner to secure a fortunate 2-1 win at Celtic Park. In doing so, they also avenged two defeats incurred by Celtic in the 2019/20 Europa League, which contributed to Lazio being eliminated from the tournament at the group stage.
Overall, Celtic’s record on the road in the Champions League is poor, as they haven’t won away in the tournament proper since defeating Anderlecht at the Constant Vanden Stock Stadium in September 2017. They’ve also struggled to impose themselves in the 2023/24 tournament, producing just 10.75 shot-creating actions per 90 (the lowest of any competing team) and an xG value of just 2.3 goals.
Lazio have only lost once at home in eight matches in 2023/24 too, while their own xG value in the UCL is 5.4 and more than double that of their opponents. The ‘white and sky blues’ have also completed 195 ball recoveries to Celtic’s 166, and they’ll definitely look to put Brendan Rodgers’ side under pressure from the outset and sustain their attacks.
With Celtic also still smarting from a 6-0 thrashing on the road against Atletico Madrid in gameweek four, it’s hard to see past a home win here. In fact, the only real question is whether Celtic have enough quality to score in Rome and make it a close encounter, but I’m tipping Lazio to win comfortably in front of their own fans.
My Prediction: 🏆 Lazio 2 – 0 Celtic ⚽
💯 Lazio v Celtic UCL Match Odds
There are hundreds of team and player markets associated with the clash between Lazio and Celtic, including the match winner or result, whether or not both sides will score and the over/under on total goals scored in the game. But how are these markets currently being priced by sportsbooks?
🏅 Lazio v Celtic: Match Winner
Across all sites recommended by Betinireland’s comprehensive bookmaker reviews, Lazio are the favourites to defeat Celtic at the Stadio Olimpico. But what price can you get on a Celtic victory?
Team | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lazio to Win | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.44 | 1.50 |
Celtic to Win | 6.00 | 5.50 | 5.65 | 6.00 | 5.80 |
Draw | 4.00 | 4.33 | 4.25 | 4.20 | 4.20 |
⚽ Lazio v Celtic: Both Teams To Score
50% of Lazio’s matches this season (eight out of 16) have seen both sides score, although it’s interesting to note that this has only been the case in one of their last six games. As for Celtic, both teams have scored in eight of their 18 matches (44.4%) across all competitions, with the side keeping seven clean sheets to date (all of which have come in the Scottish Premiership).
Yes/No | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1.75 | 1.83 | 1.73 | 1.80 | 1.80 |
No | 1.95 | 1.95 | 1.99 | 2.05 | 1.91 |
🥅 Lazio v Celtic: Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Lazio and Celtic have played 34 matches in total so far this season, which have yielded 93 goals at a rate of 2.73 per game. However, Lazio have only scored 18 goals in their 16 matches at a rate of 1.12 per game, while Celtic have mustered just three Champions League goals so far and continue to struggle to create chances in the competition.
Under/Over | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Over 2.5 Goals | 1.67 | 1.67 | 1.65 | 1.65 | 1.67 |
Under 2.5 Goals | 2.05 | 2.10 | 2.09 | 2.00 | 2.10 |
✔️ Lazio v Celtic - Betting Tips
You can leverage these markets with either your hard-earned bankroll or any free bets that you have on your account, but identifying value in published odds is easier said than done. So, "I've prepared some betting tips. Additionally, make sure to read our guide on matched betting, which will help you identify the best value markets before kick-off!
- Tip 1: Back Both Teams Not to Score: While the BTTS odds imply a slightly higher probability of both teams scoring in Rome, this ignores Celtic’s terrible form on the road in Europe and their lack of creativity in the 2023/24 Champions League. Lazio are also well organised and kept out Feyenoord in gameweek four, so there’s value in backing both sides not to score at a price of 2.05 with TonyBet Sports.
- Tip 2: Back Lazio to Win to Nil: Celtic have only scored four goals in their previous seven UCL group stage away games, while they’ve drawn successive blanks against Feyenoord and Atletico Madrid on the road so far this season. Given this and their noticeable lack of shot and goal-creating actions in the Champions League, I think there’s value in backing Lazio to win to nil at a price of 2.63 with LegendPlay Sports.
- Tip 3: Back Lazio to Win With a Handicap of -1.25 Goals: While the reverse fixture saw Lazio claim a last-gasp win in gameweek two, I’m expecting the Italian side to be much more dominant in front of their own fans. Celtic are certainly a much less potent proposition on the road in European competition, so there may be some value in backing the home side to win with a small handicap of -1.25 goals at a price of 2.00 with LegendPlay Sports.
1️⃣ Lazio Update
Lazio have endured a largely frustrating season so far, winning seven and losing six of their 16 matches in all competitions through 2023/24. As a result, they’re languishing 10th in Serie A (after finishing second last season) and currently sit second in UCL Group E (just behind Atletico Madrid and a point ahead of Feyenoord). However, the side is defensively well organised and difficult to beat at home, with just one defeat in eight at the Stadio Olimpico this season and one in 11 since a 1-0 reversal to Torino on April 30th.
Last 5 Games | |
---|---|
Lazio 0 Roma 0 | 12.11.23 Serie A |
Lazio 1 Feyenoord 0 | 07.11.23 Champions League |
Bologna 1 Lazio 0 | 03.11.23 Serie A |
Lazio 1 Fiorentina 0 | 30.10.23 Serie A |
Feyenoord 3 Lazio 1 | 25.10.23 Champions League |
Lazio midfielder Matías Vecino will miss the visit of Celtic through suspension, after collecting his second yellow card of the competition against Feyenoord. He’s also carrying a thigh strain, while winger Mattia Zaccagni (knee injury) and Daichi Kamada (back) remain slight doubts at the time of writing.
Player | Reason |
---|---|
Matías Vecino | Suspended and Thigh Strain |
Mattia Zaccagni | Knee Injury |
Daichi Kamada | Back Injury |
2️⃣ Celtic Update
Once again, there’s a stark contrast between Celtic’s domestic and continental form, with the hoops having taken 35 points from the 39 available to them in the SPL and plundered 34 goals at a rate of 2.61 per game. However, they’ve earned just a single point from their four Champions League games so far, while scoring on only three occasions and conceding 12 goals. Only Antwerp (13) have conceded more in this season’s UEFA Champions League, while Celtic have already faced 65 shots and 24 attempts on target against their Group E opponents.
Last 5 Games | |
---|---|
Celtic 6 Aberdeen 0 | 12.11.23 Scottish Premiership |
Atletico Madrid 6 Celtic 0 | 07.11.23 Champions League |
Ross County 0 Celtic 3 | 04.11.23 Scottish Premiership |
Celtic 2 St. Mirren 1 | 01.11.23 Scottish Premiership |
Hibernian 0 Celtic 0 | 28.10.23 Scottish Premiership |
Japanese winger Daizen Maeda will miss the trip to Rome, as struggles with a stretched ligament and serves his suspension for the red card received against Atletico last time out. Busy midfielder Reo Hatate has also been ruled out until January with a hamstring injury, while forward Liel Abada remains a doubt with a torn thigh muscle.
Player | Reason |
---|---|
Daizen Maeda | Suspended and Stretched Ligament |
Reo Hatate | Hamstring Injury |
Liel Abada | Torn Thigh Muscle |
👕 Lazio v Celtic - Potential Lineups
Pos. | Lazio 4-3-3 | Celtic 4-3-3 | Pos. |
---|---|---|---|
Goalkeeper | I. Provedel | J. Hart | Goalkeeper |
Right Back | M. Lazzari | A. Johnston | Right Back |
Centre Back | Patric | C. Carter-Vickers | Centre Back |
Centre Back | A. Romagnoli | L. Scales | Centre Back |
Left Back | A. Marušić | G. Taylor | Left Back |
Midfielder | M. Guendouzi | M. O’Riley | Midfielder |
Midfielder | D. Cataldi | C. McGregor | Midfielder |
Midfielder | L. Alberto | D. Turnbull | Midfielder |
Wide Forward | F. Anderson | Yang Hyun-Jun | Wide Forward |
Striker | C. Immobile | K. Furuhashi | Striker |
Wide Forward | Pedro | L. Palma | Wide Forward |
✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster
Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.