Borussia Dortmund v Newcastle United Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

borussia-dortmund-newcastle-united-logo borussia-dortmund-newcastle-united-logo
TournamentChampions League
Timetable17:45 GMT, 7 Nov 23
PredictionNewcastle To Win!
Odds2.70
BookmakerLegend Play Sports
Newcastle To Win!
The best odds
1.
Legend Play Sports
Odds : 2.70
Bet €100 and win €270 if Newcastle win.
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2.
betway
Odds : 2.60
Bet €100 and win €260 if Newcastle win.
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€50+ 50 Free Spins
3.
Dach​bet Sports
Odds : 2.60
Bet €100 and win €260 if Newcastle win.
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borussia-dortmund-newcastle-united-logo borussia-dortmund-newcastle-united-logo
Champions League veterans Borussia Dortmund delivered a resounding reality check to Newcastle in gameweek three of the 2023/24 UCL, leveraging their experience and nous to secure an entertaining 1-0 win. This saw the Bundesliga side edge ahead of Eddie Howe’s men in the Group F table, while another win at Signal Iduna Park on November 7th will put Newcastle on the precipice of elimination. Of course, Dortmund will be reeling from their 4-0 home thrashing at the hands of Bayern in Der Klassiker, but can the Magpies capitalise on this and reclaim second spot in Group F, or will the hosts once again show their class and pedigree? Read on to see my match prediction and the latest ante post prices from Betinireland’s best betting sites.

🏆 Borussia Dortmund v Newcastle United UCL Prediction

The match on October 25th was the first ever contested between Dortmund and Newcastle, which should come as no surprise given that this season has seen the Magpies participate in the Champions League for the first time since 2002/03. It also ended an eight-game unbeaten run for Newcastle, while potentially showcasing a lack of experience and know-how when compared to the tournament’s top sides.

Arguably, Dortmund and Newcastle prefer to play on the counterattack in the Champions League, averaging 44.3% and 43.7% possession respectively during their three games so far. So, although the Magpies boasted 61% possession in the reverse fixture two weeks ago, I expect this trend to be reversed at Signal Iduna Park. However, Dortmund have largely struggled to convert chances in this season’s UCL, averaging just 0.67 goal-creating actions per 90 minutes and scoring a single goal in three matches so far.

So, although Newcastle are contending with several injuries, I expect them to perform well in transition in Germany, while the fact that they average 0.33 goals per shot-on-target betrays their often-ruthless efficiency in front of goal. This could prove the difference at Signal Iduna Park, and I’m tipping the Magpies to edge an end-to-end encounter that keeps alive their chances of reaching the round of 16!

My Prediction: 🏆 Borussia Dortmund 1-2 Newcastle ⚽

💯 Borussia Dortmund v Newcastle United UCL Match Odds

Football betting always offers access to a diverse array of markets, and wagering on the Champions League clash between Borussia Dortmund and Newcastle United is no exception to this rule. Below you can find the most popular betting markets and how are they are currently being priced or click here for some more bookmaker reviews.

Borussia Dortmund v Newcastle United: Match Winner

According to the ante post win market odds, the bookies are split on which of these two sides will win in Dortmund. Some are even offering the exact same odds on a Dortmund and Newcastle win, so here’s a closer look at the latest prices!

Team
Dortmund to Win2.602.502.532.632.40
Newcastle to Win2.602.602.512.502.70
Draw3.403.603.503.603.50

⚽ Borussia Dortmund v Newcastle United: Both Teams To Score

While the bookies may not be sure about which side will win in Germany, they certainly expect both sides to score and have priced this market accordingly. There’s arguably good reason for this too, as while Dortmund have failed to score in two of their three UCL games in 2023/24, they’ve only drawn blanks in three out of 15 in all competitions. Interestingly, Newcastle have also gone goalless in two of their three Champions League matches so far but still managed to score in 13 out of 16 games in total.

Yes/No
Yes1.571.601.541.601.58
No2.302.302.312.252.30

Borussia Dortmund v Newcastle United: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

If you want to wager on whether there will be over or under 2.5 goals scored in this game, you should note that the 31 matches contested by Dortmund and Newcastle this season have yielded 94 goals at a rate of 3.03 per game. The match at St. James Park was also relatively open and saw both teams create chances to score, and I expect more of the same at Signal Iduna Park!

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals1.701.751.651.701.70
Under 2.5 Goals2.052.052.082.002.10

✔️ Borussia Dortmund v Newcastle - Betting Tips

Undoubtedly, many of these markets reflect the evenly matched nature of the two sides, making it hard to create value as a punter (especially when betting on the identity of the match winner). However, I’ve prepared some insightful betting tips below to help you make the most of your bankroll!

  • Tip 1: Back Newcastle to Win: You can bet on Newcastle to beat Dortmund at a competitive price of 2.70 with LegendPlay, which implies a 37.03% probability of this outcome occurring. This highlights precisely how the bookies are split, while it offers exceptional value given the Magpies recent form and the efficiency of their offensive play. Remember, Newcastle have scored four goals despite their xG value of 2.9, so they’re more than capable of making the most of their chances in Germany.
  • Tip 2: Back Both Sides to Score and Over 2.5 Goals Being Scored: You can get relatively short odds on BTTS and there being over 2.5 goals scored in this game, which makes sense given both side’s attacking performances and goalscoring exploits this season. However, you can create far greater value by combining these markets in a single wager, with TonyBet offering a competitive price of 2.00 on both outcomes occurring.
  • Tip 3: Back Newcastle to Win By One Goal: In instances where you have a free bet on your account, you may want to seek out riskier and higher priced markets. For example, if there is to be a winner here, they’re likely to prevail by the odd goal, with Dortmund and Newcastle incredibly evenly matched both statistically and in terms of individual quality. Currently, you get on Newcastle to win by a single goal at a price of 4.50 with Dachbet-Sports, which offers genuine value in the marketplace.

1️⃣ Borussia Dortmund Update

In all competitions, Dortmund have won two of their last four games, namely the 1-0 victory over Newcastle in the Northeast and a triumph by the exact same scoreline against 1899 Hoffenheim in the second round of the DFB-Pokal. However, this sequence has included the 4-0 home defeat to Bayern last time out, in addition to a chaotic 3-3 draw against Eintracht Frankfurt at Deutsche Bank Park. These games have certainly highlighted some defensive vulnerability in the Dortmund side, while the fact that just nine of their 45 shots (20%) in their three UCL games have hit the target also showcases a waywardness in front of goal.

Last 5 Games
Borussia Dortmund 0
Bayern Munich 4
04.11.23
German Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund 1
Hoffenheim 0
01.11.23
DFB-Pokal
Eintracht Frankfurt 3
Borussia Dortmund 3
29.10.23
German Bundesliga
Newcastle 0
Borussia Dortmund 1
25.10.23
Champions League
Borussia Dortmund 1
Werder Bremen 0
20.10.23
German Bundesliga

Dortmund will still be without right back Matau Morey against Newcastle, as he continues to struggle with a knee injury. Young winger Julien Duranville is also absent with a muscle injury, while Emre Can is bruised and may not be fit in time for Champions League gameweek four. Centre back Antonios Papadopoulos is also a doubt with an unknown injury having missed out in the clash with Bayern.

PlayerReason
Julien Duranville Muscle Injury
Mateu Morey Knee Injury
Emre Can Bruise
Antonios Papadopoulos Unknown Injury

2️⃣ Newcastle Update

Since a 3-1 defeat at Brighton on September 2nd, Newcastle have lost just one of 12 games across all competitions. They’ve won eight of these matches too, although their sole defeat did come in the reverse feature against Dortmund at St. James Park on October 25th. Overall, they’ve won nine (56.25%) of their 16 matches contested during the 2023/24 campaign, while scoring 35 goals at a rate of 2.18 per game. They’ve only conceded 13 goals in all competitions too, while keeping eight clean sheets (all of which have come during the last 12 matches!).

Last 5 Games
Newcastle 1
Arsenal 0
04.11.23
Premier League
Man United 0
Newcastle 3
01.11.23
EFL Cup
Wolves 2
Newcastle 2
28.10.23
Premier League
Newcastle 0
Borussia Dortmund 1
25.10.23
Champions League
Newcastle 4
Crystal Palace 0
21.10.23
Premier League

Left back Dan Burn (hip) has recently joined a lengthening injury list at Newcastle, which had previously been somewhat reduced by the return of midfielders Joelinton and Joe Willock. Other absentees including winger Harvey Barnes (foot injury), Sven Botman (knee), Alexander Isak (groin) and Elliott Anderson (back), while reserve full back Matt Targett is also struggling with a hamstring injury. Jacob Murphy will also miss out in Germany having dislocated his shoulder again against Arsenal, with the winger potentially ruled out for up to three months. Remember, Sandro Tonali is also unavailable after being banned for various betting rule breaches.

PlayerReason
Dan Burn Hip Injury
Harvey Barnes Foot Injury
Alexander Isak Groin Injury
Elliott Anderson Back Injury
Matt Targett Hamstring Injury
Sven Botman Knee Injury
Jacob Murphy Shoulder Surgery
Sandro Tonali Suspended

👕 Borussia Dortmund v Newcastle United - Potential Lineups

Pos. Borussia Dortmund
4-2-3-1
Newcastle
4-3-3
Pos.
Goalkeeper G. Kobel N. Pope Goalkeeper
Right Back J. Ryerson T. Livramento Right Back
Centre Back M. Hummels J. Lascelles Centre Back
Centre Back N. Schlotterbeck F. Schär Centre Back
Left Back R. Bensebaini K. Trippier Left Back
Midfielder M. Sabitzer S. Longstaff Midfielder
Midfielder S. Özcan B. Guimarães Midfielder
Midfielder M. Reus Joelinton Midfielder
Wide Forward J. Brandt M. Almirón Wide Forward
Striker N. Füllkrug C. Wilson Striker
Wide Forward D. Malen A. Gordon Wide Forward

Newcastle To Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of different sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.

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