Benfica v Inter Milan Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

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Tournament2023 Champions League
Timetable20:00 GMT, 29th Nov 23
PredictionBenfica to win
BookmakerDachbet Sports
Benfica to win
The best odds
Dach​bet Sports
Odds : 2.60
Bet €100 and win €260 if Benfica win
Odds : 2.50
Bet €100 and win €250 if Benfica win
€50+ 50 Free Spins
Odds : 2.50
Bet €100 and win €250 if Benfica win
benfica-v-inter-logo benfica-v-inter-logo

Inter Milan will travel to Benfica a little over seven months after their comprehensive win at the Estádio da Luz in the second leg of the 2022/23 Champions League quarterfinal, having already qualified for the round of 16 this time around. As for Benfica, they’ve already been eliminated from this season’s UCL, although they do remain in contention for a third-place finish in Group D and a Europa League spot. But can the Eagles earn their first point or win of their UCL campaign, and which side have the best betting sites made favourites?

🏆 Benfica v Inter Milan UCL Prediction

These two sides have won five European Cup and Champions League titles between them, with Benfica’s two successes coming consecutively in 1961 and 1962. They’ve now gone head-to-head on four occasions too, with Inter winning three times (including the 1965 European Cup final) and the teams sharing a 3-3 draw in the second leg of last season’s quarterfinal.

In this year’s tournament, Inter have proved to be one of the most creative but least efficient teams in front of goal, with their goals – xG value of -3.6 the joint lowest among the 32 competing sides (alongside city rivals AC Milan). They’ve also only averaged 0.5 goals per shot, while Argentine striker Lautaro Martínez embodies these issues having struck twice from 20 shots on goal and an individual xG value of 4.3.

Of course, Benfica have been one of the worst-performing sides in the competition, losing all four of their group stage games while scoring only a single goal. Despite averaging 49.0% possession across their games, they’ve only produced 18.25 shot-creating actions per 90, while their tally of 0.2 goals per shot is the lowest in the competition.

However, they’ll be determined to start making amends in front of their fans, while Inter may lack a little focus having already qualified for the round of 16. Benfica also boast quality individual attacking players in Rafa Silva and Angel Di Maria, and I’m backing them to get their first win of the UCL campaign here and keep their hopes of earning a Europa League place alive.

My Prediction: 🏆 Benfica 2 – 1 Inter ⚽

💯 Benfica v Inter Milan UCL Match Odds

If you browse Betinireland’s comprehensive bookmaker reviews, you’ll see a range of reputable and licensed sportsbooks where you can wager on Benfica vs Inter. But what are the most popular betting markets, and how are they currently being priced?

🏅 Benfica v Inter Milan: Match Winner

Despite Benfica’s tournament performance, the bookies are largely split on which team will win at the Estádio da Luz. For example, Benfica’s average price of 2.50 implies a 40.00% probability of a home win, whereas Inter’s odds of around 2.63 suggest that they have a 38.02% chance of emerging victorious.

Benfica to Win2.602.502.502.502.50
Inter Milan to Win2.702.602.622.702.63

⚽ Benfica v Inter Milan: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have scored in eight of Benfica’s 18 matches this season, with the Eagles keeping seven clean sheets and only failing to score on three occasions (all in the UEFA Champions League). As for Inter, both sides have scored in just six of their 16 encounters (37.5%), with Simone Inzaghi’s men keeping 10 clean sheets and finding the net in every single game.


🥅 Benfica v Inter Milan: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Benfica and Inter have contested 34 matches combined in 2023/24, with these encounters yielding a total of 91 goals at a rate of 2.67 per game. However, their UCL matches this season have produced 15 goals at a lowly rate of just 1.87 per game, so the leading sportsbooks are hedging their bets when it comes to pricing the over/under 2.5 goals betting line!

Over 2.5 Goals1.831.801.831.801.83
Under 2.5 Goals1.871.911.861.901.83

✔️ Benfica v Inter Milan - Betting Tips

Whether you want to wager your hard-earned bankroll on this Champions League match or make use of one or more free bets on your account, it’s important to bet strategically and navigate your chosen markets carefully. Here are some expert tips to help you do just that!

  • Tip 1: Back Benfica to Win Outright: Because this match is so difficult for Betinireland’s recommended betting sites to call, there’s value in backing Benfica to win outright at a price of 2.60 with Dachbet Sports. Of course, you can also leverage matched betting to lay a back wager on Benfica to win at this price, covering all potential match outcomes and guaranteeing a return on your stake.
  • Tip 2: Back Benfica to Win by One Goal: While the odds imply a fairly equal probability of over or under 2.5 goals being scored in this game, this match is likely to be tight, relatively tense and settled by the odd goal. Remember, Inter only edged the reverse fixture at the San Siro by a single goal, while Benfica had 53% possession over the 90 minutes. So, get on Benfica to win by the odd goal at the generous price of 4.33 with TonyBet Sports.
  • Tip 3: Back Both Sides to Score in the Second Half: While I’m tipping both sides to score at the Estádio da Luz, it’s interesting to note that Benfica have yet to score a single goal in the first half of UCL games this season. Inter’s Champions League matches have only yielded two first-half goals in 2023/24, so I think there’s value in backing a slow burner in which both teams score in the second 45 at a price of 3.00 with Betway.

1️⃣ Benfica Update

Domestically, Benfica have been typically consistent in 2023/24, winning 12 of their 14 matches and remaining unbeaten in 13 games since a 3-2 defeat at Boavista on August 14th (the opening day of the Primeira Liga season). However, their UCL campaign has been an unmitigated disaster for Roger Schmidt’s men, with the Eagles losing all four matches and scoring just a single goal during a 3-1 defeat at Real Sociedad in gameweek four. No side has scored fewer goals than this in the 2023/24 UCL, although Benfica’s xG value of 3.1 suggests that while the team has been profligate in front of goal, they’re more than capable of creating chances against any opponent.

Last 5 Games
Benfica 2
Sporting Lisbon 1
Primeira Liga
Real Sociedad 3
Benfica 1
Champions League
Chaves 0
Benfica 2
Primeira Liga
Arouca 0
Benfica 2
Taca da Liga
Benfica 1
Casa Pia 1
Primeira Liga

Benfica could be without several players ahead of Inter’s visit, including winger David Neres who’s struggling with a meniscus injury. Right back Alexander Bah is also sidelined with a foot injury, while full-back Juan Bernat (adductor injury) and midfielder Orkun Kökçü (foot) are expected to miss out too.

David NeresMeniscus Injury
Alexander BahFoot Injury
Juan BernatAdductor Injury
Orkun KökçüFoot Injury

2️⃣ Inter Milan Update

Inter’s form has been impressive this season, with a record of 13 wins, two draws and just a single defeat in 16 matches yielding a win rate of 81.25%. The side is also unbeaten in nine games since a shock 2-1 home loss to Sassuolo on September 27th, while they haven’t lost on the road at all since a 2-1 reversal against Napoli on May 21st. As with the previous campaign, this success has been built on outstanding defensive organisation and a well-drilled 3-5-2 formation, with Inter having kept an incredible 10 clean sheets in their 16 matches so far through 2023/24.

Last 5 Games
Inter 2
Frosinone 0
Serie A
RB Salzburg 0
Inter 1
Champions League
Atalanta 1
Inter 2
Serie A
Inter 1
Roma 0
Serie A
Inter 2
RB Salzburg 1
Champions League

Experienced wideman Juan Cuadrado remains unavailable for Inter ahead of their trip to Portugal, with the Colombian recovering from Achilles tendon irritation. Defenders Benjamin Pavard (patellar tendon dislocation) and Alessandro Bastoni (calf injury) will also miss out having been ruled out until December.

Juan CuadradoAchilles Tendon Irritation
Benjamin PavardPatellar Tendon Dislocation
Alessandro BastoniCalf Injury

👕 Benfica v Inter Milan - Potential Lineups

Pos. Benfica
Inter Milan
Goalkeeper A. Trubin Y. Sommer Goalkeeper
Right Back F. Aursnes M. Darmian Right Centre Back
Centre Back A. Silva F. Acerbi Centre Back
Centre Back N. Otamendi S. de Vrij Left Centre Back
Left Back Morato D. Dumfries Right Wing Back
Midfielder F. Luís N. Barella Midfielder
Midfielder João Neves H. Çalhanoğlu Midfielder
Midfielder R. Silva H. Mkhitaryan Midfielder
Wide Forward A. Di Maria F. Dimarco Left Wing Back
Striker P. Musa M. Thuram Striker
Wide Forward João Mário L. Martinez Striker


Benfica to win

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