Barcelona v FC Porto Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

barcelona-fc-porto-prediction-logo barcelona-fc-porto-prediction-logo
TournamentChampions League
Timetable20:00 GMT, 28th Nov 23
PredictionBarcelona to Win!
Barcelona to Win!
The best odds
Odds : 1.40
Bet €100 and win €140 if Barcelona win.
€50+ 50 Free Spins
Odds : 1.41
Bet €100 and win €141 if Barcelona win.
Legend Play Sports
Odds : 1.47
Bet €100 and win €147 if Barcelona win.
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While I may have predicted Barcelona’s 1-0 defeat to Shakhtar in gameweek four of the Champions League, this result will have come as a shock to Barca’s travelling fans. It also means that the Catalan giants are now level on points with Porto at the top of Group H, and a victory for either side at the New Camp would guarantee qualification to the round of 16. But do I expect Xavi’s men to bounce back in front of their own fans, and who do the best betting sites think will prevail in Spain?

🏆 Barcelona v FC Porto UCL Prediction

These two sides have won seven European Cups and Champions Leagues between them, while they’ve also played each other six times in the tournament’s history. Interestingly, Barca have won five of these games by an aggregate score of 11-2, with Porto’s sole triumph coming in the second leg of a round of 16 clash in 1985/86.

Despite their 1-0 loss in Ukraine in gameweek four, Barca have largely impressed in this season’s Champions League, averaging 61.8% possession across their four Group H games. They’ve also attempted (118) and completed (57) the most take-ons in the 2023/24 UCL, with teenage sensation Lamine Yamal completing 13 of his 24 take-ons (54%) alone.

However, Barca and Porto were relatively evenly matched during their gameweek two clash at the Estádio do Dragão, while in Mehdi Taremi, the ‘dragões’ boast a player who has already assisted twice in this season’s UCL and contributed 1.36 goal-creating actions per 90 in four appearances.

Overall, Porto are averaging 4.00 goal-creating actions per 90 in the Champions League (sixth highest tally in the tournament), so I expect them to threaten and score at the Nou Camp. However, Xavi’s side are well-organised and relentless in possession, so I’m backing them to win an exciting encounter and book their place in the knockout stages.

My Prediction: 🏆 Barcelona 2 – 1 FC Porto ⚽

💯 Barcelona v FC Porto UCL Match Odds

There are plenty of Barcelona v FC Porto betting markets you can target ahead of this UCL game, including the match winner, the over/under on total goals scored and whether or not both sides will score. I’ll compare these markets and their latest odds in detail below!

🏅 Barcelona v FC Porto: Match Winner

Barca are priced at around 1.44 to beat Porto, with these odds implying a 69.44% probability of the home side prevailing. Conversely, you can back Porto to be victorious at an average price of 7.00, which affords the visitors a 14.28% chance of achieving this objective!

Barcelona to Win1.401.401.411.451.47
FC Porto to Win6.756.006.356.246.33

⚽ Barcelona v FC Porto: Both Teams To Score

In Barcelona’s 17 matches so far this season, both sides have found the net on eight occasions, with the Catalan giants keeping a total of eight clean sheets. However, their defeat against Shakhtar was only the second time the team had failed to score in 2023/24. Both sides have also scored in eight of Porto’s 17 matches this season, while the dragões have kept five clean sheets in all competitions.


🥅 Barcelona v FC Porto: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Between them, Barcelona and Porto have contested 34 matches in 2023/24, with these encounters producing 88 goals at a rate of 2.58 per game. The reverse fixture at the Estádio do Dragão also yielded just a single goal (scored by Ferran Torres), while it should be noted that Barca have only conceded six goals at the Nou Camp this season.

Over 2.5 Goals1.641.651.601.641.62
Under 2.5 Goals2.

✔️ Barcelona v FC Porto - Betting Tips

The sites detailed in Betinireland’s bookmaker reviews all provide coverage of these markets, while also enabling you to create bespoke combination wagers. Below, I’ve prepared some expert betting tips to help you navigate these markets in the best way possible! In addtion to this our guide on matched betting should give you insights into making decisive bets.

  • Tip 1: Back Barcelona to Win and Both Sides to Score: Barca are the odds-on favourites to beat Porto, but you can create additional value by backing them to win and both sides to score at the more competitive price of 3.00 with Betway. Despite Barca’s defensive strength at home, they’ve conceded in their last three matches at the Nou Camp, while Porto have only failed to score in four games this season.
  • Tip 2: Back Barca to Win by a Single Goal: The reverse fixture at the Estádio do Dragão was incredibly close, with Barca attempting 14 shots on goal to Porto’s 13 and only prevailing by the odd goal. Even the possession statistics were relatively even, with Barca’s tally of 57% well below their overall tournament average. So, I expect a similarly close and even contest in Spain, and there’s value in backing Barcelona to win by just a single goal at a price of 3.80 with Dachbet Sports.
  • Tip 3: Back Barca in the Half-Time, Full-Time Market: If you have one or more free bets that you’d like to make use of, you may also want to consider wagering on the half-time, full-time market. I expect Barca to largely control possession and territory against Porto, and while the away side will be a constant threat on the break, there’s value in backing the hosts to lead after both halves at a price of 2.25 with TonyBet Sports.

1️⃣ Barcelona Update

Barcelona have won 70.59% of their games in all competitions this season, with their 17 matches yielding 12 victories, just two defeats and 34 goals scored. However, the side has started to look more defensively vulnerable of late, conceding in five of their last seven games and all of their previous three matches at the Nou Camp. It’s also interesting to note that Barca haven’t won any game by more than a single goal since September 19th, when they thumped Royal Antwerp 5-0 in UCL gameweek one.

Last 5 Games
Barcelona 2
Alaves 1
La Liga
Shakhtar Donetsk 1
Barcelona 0
Champions League
Real Sociedad 0
Barcelona 1
La Liga
Barcelona 1
Real Madrid 2
La Liga
Barcelona 2
Shakhtar Donetsk 1
Champions League

Barca’s previous injury crisis is finally starting to ease, although club captain Sergio Roberto remains absent with a muscle injury. The game may also come a little too soon for Dutch midfielder Frenkie de Jong, who is continuing his comeback from an ankle sprain. However, keeper Marc-André ter Stegen may be available for selection against Porto, despite withdrawing from the German international squad with a back complaint.

Sergio Roberto Muscle Injury
Marc-André ter Stegen Back Injury
Frenkie de Jong Ankle Sprain

2️⃣ FC Porto Update

Porto’s overall win percentage in 2023/24 (70.59%) is exactly the same as Barcelona’s over the same number of matches, although the Portuguese outfit have been beaten four times in all competitions. However, the side’s back-to-back wins over Royal Antwerp in gameweeks three and four of the Champions League have afforded them the best possible chance of reaching the round of 16, while Porto boast one of the tournament’s most efficient forwards in the form of Brazilian striker Evanilson. He has scored four goals from just four shots on target, with this tally dramatically outperforming his xG value of 1.3.

Last 5 Games
Vitoria SC 1
Porto 2
Primeira Liga
Porto 2
Royal Antwerp 0
Champions League
Porto 0
Estoril Praia 1
Primeira Liga
Vizela 0
Porto 2
Primeira Liga
Royal Antwerp 1
Porto 4
Champions League

Porto are without three players for the trip to Barcelona, including long-term absentee Iván Marcano (who is ruled out until April with a cruciate ligament tear). Winger Gabriel Veron also remains absent with a torn thigh muscle, while left back Wendell is a doubt having missed the last five matches with an unknown injury.

Iván Marcano Cruciate Ligament Tear
Gabriel Veron Torn Thigh Muscle
Wendell Unknown Injury

👕 Barcelona v FC Porto - Potential Lineups

Pos. Barcelona
FC Porto
Goalkeeper Marc-André ter Stegen D. Costa Goalkeeper
Right Back J. Kounde João Mário Right Back
Centre Back R. Araújo Pepe Centre Back
Centre Back I. Martinez D. Carmo Centre Back
Left Back J. Cancelo Z. Sanusi Left Back
Midfielder I. Gündoğan A. Franco Right Midfielder
Midfielder O. Romeu A. Varela Central Midfielder
Midfielder Pedri S. Eustáquio Central Midfielder
Wide Forward F. Torres Pepê Left Midfielder
Striker R. Lewandowski Evanilson Striker
Wide Forward J. Felix M. Taremi Striker

Barcelona to Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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