Atlético Madrid v Lazio Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

🏆 Atlético Madrid v Lazio UCL Prediction

This group has proved relatively straightforward for both sides, despite the obvious challenge posed by Dutch champions Feyenoord. In fact, Atletico eliminated Arne Slot’s men with a clinical 3-1 win at De Kuip in gameweek five, while Lazio’s 1-0 victory over the same opponents the previous week also proved crucial.

It’s interesting to note that Atletico have a 100% record at home this season, winning all nine of their games in all competitions. They’ve also scored 26 goals in these matches, while their tally of 13 goals in UCL Group E makes them the third highest scorers in the competition. Diego Simeone’s men have also outperformed their xG value by +5.1 goals, and only Arsenal have done better according to this metric.

While Lazio have fared relatively well in the UCL, they’ve struggled domestically, with last season’s runners Serie A runners up languishing in ninth place this time around having lost six of their 14 matches. Incredibly, their xG value in the Champions League is only 0.2% lower than Atletico’s at 7.7, yet they’ve scored six less goals (seven) overall.

Although they held Atletico in Rome during gameweek one, facing them at the Civitas Metropolitan Stadium is a whole other ball game. Atletico will also be determined to claim top spot and avoid Bayern Munich, Manchester City, Arsenal and city rivals Real in the round of 16, so I’m tipping them to win comfortably in the Spanish capital!

💯 Atlético Madrid v Lazio UCL Match Odds

Whichever sportsbook you choose from Betinireland’s detailed bookmaker reviews, you’ll find several betting markets pertaining to this match. These include match winners, BTTS (or not) and the over/under on total goals scored, but how are these markets currently being priced?

🏅 Atlético Madrid v Lazio: Match Winner

Atletico are priced at around 1.57 to beat Lazio, with these odds implying a 63.69% chance of them winning the match. Conversely, the Serie A team can be backed at an average price of 5.50, suggesting that they have just a 18.18% chance of prevailing!

Team
Atletico Madrid to Win	1.57	1.60	1.57	1.57	1.57
Lazio to Win	5.50	5.25	5.30	5.50	5.25
Draw	3.80	3.80	3.95	4.00	4.20

⚽ Atlético Madrid v Lazio: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have scored in 11 of the 19 matches that Atletico Madrid have contested this season, with Simeone’s men having drawn just three blanks and kept a total of six clean sheets. Conversely both sides have found the net in 20 of Lazio’s fixtures in 2023/24, with the Serie A giants failing to score four times and keeping a total of eight clean sheets.

Yes/No
Yes	1.87	1.91	1.86	1.83	1.83
No	1.80	1.85	1.85	1.80	1.83

🥅 Atlético Madrid v Lazio: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

The 39 matches that have featured Atletico Madrid and Lazio this season have produced 107 goals, at a rate of 2.74 per 90. However, Simeone’s side have been far more prolific in all competitions, hitting 45 goals in 19 matches at a rate of 2.36 per 90 minutes. However, Lazio have only scored 23 goals in their 20 fixtures, so the over/under market for total goals scored is finely balanced.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals	1.83	1.85	1.84	1.91	1.83
Under 2.5 Goals	1.87	1.85	1.85	1.83	1.83

1️⃣ Atletico Madrid Update

Despite losing two of their last four La Liga matches, Atletico have only been defeated three times in 19 outings across all competitions in 2023/24. They’ve also won 13 of these fixtures and maintained an impressive win rate of 68.42%, while their average of 2.36 goals per game this season highlights the quality and efficiency of their attacking players. Between them, Morata and Antoine Griezmann have plundered nine Champions League goals in Group E from a combined xG value of just 5.6, while the French international is also a tremendous source of creativity and plays a key role in Atletico’s tactical set up.

Atletico will be without Pablo Barrios until the end of January, as he continues his recovery from meniscus damage. French forward Thomas Lemar will also miss out after rupturing his Achilles tendon on September 17th, while left winger Vitolo is absent and has been since May with a persistent knee injury.

2️⃣ Lazio Update

Lazio have impressed in the 2022/23 Champions League, especially given their relatively inconsistent domestic form. In Serie A, they haven’t won more than three successive matches all season, while they’ve lost six and drawn two of the 14 games and currently sit in ninth place. Overall, Maurizio Sarri’s team have won exactly half (10) of their 20 encounters in all competitions, while their tally of seven defeats is only six short of their total for the whole of last season. However, they do boast the prolific striker Ciro Immobile in their ranks, with the veteran hitman and Lazio legend having scored three UCL goals this season from just six shots and an xG of 1.8.

Lazio may be without centre back pairing Alessio Romagnoli (calf injury) and Patric (hamstring) for the trip to Madrid, while winger Gustav Isaksen has been ruled out with a hamstring strain. Defensive midfielder Nicolo Rovella is also absent due to suspension, after accumulating too many yellow cards during the group stages.

👕 Atletico Madrid v Lazio - Potential Lineups

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.