Atlético Madrid v Lazio Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

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TournamentChampions League
Timetable20:00 GMT, 13th Dec 23
PredictionAtletico Madrid to Win!
Odds1.60
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Atletico Madrid to Win!
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Odds : 1.60
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Odds : 1.57
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Most pressing issues in Champions League Group E have been resolved, with Atletico Madrid and Lazio having already claimed the two qualification places. However, this match will determine which of these two teams ultimately wins the group and potentially earns an easier knockout draw, with the La Liga outfit currently holding a one point advantage. Because of this, Atletico only need a point to achieve this objective, but Lazio will provide stiff opposition at the Civitas Metropolitan Stadium. So, which side do I think will win, and what do the odds from the best betting sites tell us?

🏆 Atlético Madrid v Lazio UCL Prediction

This group has proved relatively straightforward for both sides, despite the obvious challenge posed by Dutch champions Feyenoord. In fact, Atletico eliminated Arne Slot’s men with a clinical 3-1 win at De Kuip in gameweek five, while Lazio’s 1-0 victory over the same opponents the previous week also proved crucial.

It’s interesting to note that Atletico have a 100% record at home this season, winning all nine of their games in all competitions. They’ve also scored 26 goals in these matches, while their tally of 13 goals in UCL Group E makes them the third highest scorers in the competition. Diego Simeone’s men have also outperformed their xG value by +5.1 goals, and only Arsenal have done better according to this metric.

While Lazio have fared relatively well in the UCL, they’ve struggled domestically, with last season’s runners Serie A runners up languishing in ninth place this time around having lost six of their 14 matches. Incredibly, their xG value in the Champions League is only 0.2% lower than Atletico’s at 7.7, yet they’ve scored six less goals (seven) overall.

Although they held Atletico in Rome during gameweek one, facing them at the Civitas Metropolitan Stadium is a whole other ball game. Atletico will also be determined to claim top spot and avoid Bayern Munich, Manchester City, Arsenal and city rivals Real in the round of 16, so I’m tipping them to win comfortably in the Spanish capital!

My Prediction: 🏆 Atletico Madrid 2 – 0 Lazio ⚽

💯 Atlético Madrid v Lazio UCL Match Odds

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Whichever sportsbook you choose from Betinireland’s detailed bookmaker reviews, you’ll find several betting markets pertaining to this match. These include match winners, BTTS (or not) and the over/under on total goals scored, but how are these markets currently being priced?

🏅 Atlético Madrid v Lazio: Match Winner

Atletico are priced at around 1.57 to beat Lazio, with these odds implying a 63.69% chance of them winning the match. Conversely, the Serie A team can be backed at an average price of 5.50, suggesting that they have just a 18.18% chance of prevailing!

Team
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tonybet-sport-logotonybet-sport-logo
LegendPlay-Sports-logoLegendPlay-Sports-logo
Atletico Madrid to Win1.571.601.571.571.57
Lazio to Win5.505.255.305.505.25
Draw3.803.803.954.004.20

⚽ Atlético Madrid v Lazio: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have scored in 11 of the 19 matches that Atletico Madrid have contested this season, with Simeone’s men having drawn just three blanks and kept a total of six clean sheets. Conversely both sides have found the net in 20 of Lazio’s fixtures in 2023/24, with the Serie A giants failing to score four times and keeping a total of eight clean sheets.

Yes/No
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tonybet-sport-logotonybet-sport-logo
LegendPlay-Sports-logoLegendPlay-Sports-logo
Yes1.871.911.861.831.83
No1.801.851.851.801.83

🥅 Atlético Madrid v Lazio: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

The 39 matches that have featured Atletico Madrid and Lazio this season have produced 107 goals, at a rate of 2.74 per 90. However, Simeone’s side have been far more prolific in all competitions, hitting 45 goals in 19 matches at a rate of 2.36 per 90 minutes. However, Lazio have only scored 23 goals in their 20 fixtures, so the over/under market for total goals scored is finely balanced.

Under/Over
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tonybet-sport-logotonybet-sport-logo
LegendPlay-Sports-logoLegendPlay-Sports-logo
Over 2.5 Goals1.831.851.841.911.83
Under 2.5 Goals1.871.851.851.831.83

✔️ Atlético Madrid v Lazio - Betting Tips

If you have one or more free bets on your account, you could consider engaging in matched betting and laying a back wager against Atletico to win through the Ladbrokes exchange. If you don’t have any free bets available, you could instead consider the following betting tips before staking your hard-earned cash!

  • Tip 1: Back Both Sides Not to Score: The bookies are split on the BTTS and over/under betting markets, due to Lazio’s relative lack of goals and defensive organisation. However, Atletico are also impressive defensively (they’ve conceded 19 goals in 19 matches this season), while they’ve averaged 52.6% possession in this season’s UCL and should control the game in Madrid. So, there’s value in backing both sides not to score at a price of 1.85 with Betiton.
  • Tip 2: Back Atletico to Win With Under 2.5 Goals Scored: Combination betting is also recommended here, as this enables you to wager at enhanced prices even when dealing with difficult-to-call markets. For example, there’s value in backing Atletico to win with under 2.5 goals scored in the game at a competitive price of 3.75 with Betway, as both of these outcomes have a relatively high implied probability of occurring.
  • Tip 3: Back Alvaro Morata as an Anytime Goalscorer: Atletico striker Alvaro Morata has scored in three of his team’s group stage matches, while he’s the tournament’s joint top scorer with five goals in total. These have come from an xG value of just 2.8, while Morata boasts an impressive goals-per-shot ratio of 0.36. So, there’s definite value of backing him as an anytime goalscorer at a price of 2.30 with LegendPlay.

1️⃣ Atletico Madrid Update

Despite losing two of their last four La Liga matches, Atletico have only been defeated three times in 19 outings across all competitions in 2023/24. They’ve also won 13 of these fixtures and maintained an impressive win rate of 68.42%, while their average of 2.36 goals per game this season highlights the quality and efficiency of their attacking players. Between them, Morata and Antoine Griezmann have plundered nine Champions League goals in Group E from a combined xG value of just 5.6, while the French international is also a tremendous source of creativity and plays a key role in Atletico’s tactical set up.

Last 5 Games
Barcelona 1
Atletico Madrid 0
03.12.23
La Liga
Feyenoord 1
Atletico Madrid 3
28.11.23
Champions League
Atletico Madrid 1
Mallorca 0
25.11.23
La Liga
Atletico Madrid 3
Villareal 1
12.11.23
La Liga
Atletico Madrid 6
Celtic 0
07.11.23
Champions League

Atletico will be without Pablo Barrios until the end of January, as he continues his recovery from meniscus damage. French forward Thomas Lemar will also miss out after rupturing his Achilles tendon on September 17th, while left winger Vitolo is absent and has been since May with a persistent knee injury.

PlayerReason
Pablo Barrios Meniscus Damage
Thomas Lemar Achilles Tendon Rupture
Vitolo Knee Injury

2️⃣ Lazio Update

Lazio have impressed in the 2022/23 Champions League, especially given their relatively inconsistent domestic form. In Serie A, they haven’t won more than three successive matches all season, while they’ve lost six and drawn two of the 14 games and currently sit in ninth place. Overall, Maurizio Sarri’s team have won exactly half (10) of their 20 encounters in all competitions, while their tally of seven defeats is only six short of their total for the whole of last season. However, they do boast the prolific striker Ciro Immobile in their ranks, with the veteran hitman and Lazio legend having scored three UCL goals this season from just six shots and an xG of 1.8.

Last 5 Games
Lazio 1
Genoa 0
05.12.23
Coppa Italia
Lazio 1
Cagliari 0
02.12.23
Serie A
Lazio 2
Celtic 0
28.11.23
Champions League
Salernitana 2
Lazio 1
25.11.23
Serie A
Lazio 0
Roma 0
12.11.23
Serie A

Lazio may be without centre back pairing Alessio Romagnoli (calf injury) and Patric (hamstring) for the trip to Madrid, while winger Gustav Isaksen has been ruled out with a hamstring strain. Defensive midfielder Nicolo Rovella is also absent due to suspension, after accumulating too many yellow cards during the group stages.

PlayerReason
Alessio Romagnoli Calf Injury
Patric Hamstring Injury
Gustav Isaksen Hamstring Injury
Nicolo Rovella Suspended

👕 Atletico Madrid v Lazio - Potential Lineups

Pos. Atletico Madrid
5-3-2
Lazio
4-3-3
Pos.
Goalkeeper J. Oblak I. Provedel Goalkeeper
Right Wing Back N. Molina M. Lazzari Right Back
Right Centre Back A. Witsel N. Casale Centre Back
Centre Back J. Gimenez M. Gila Centre Back
Left Centre Back M. Hermoso A. Marusic Left Back
Left Wing Back R. Riquelme M. Guendouzi Midfielder
Midfielder Saul Niguez D. Cataldi Midfielder
Midfielder Koke L. Alberto Midfielder
Midfielder R. De Paul D. Kamada Wide Forward
Striker A. Morata C. Immobile Striker
Striker A. Griezmann F. Anderson Wide Forward

Atletico Madrid to Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

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Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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