Arsenal v RC Lens Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips
| Timetable | 20:00 GMT, 29th Nov 23 |
| Prediction | Arsenal to Win! |
| Odds | 1.33 |
| Bookmaker | Lunubet Sports |
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The proposition is simple for Arsenal as they prepare for their Champions League clash with Lens on November 29th – they just need to win to ensure that they top Group B, while a draw will see them secure a place in the round of 16. As for Lens, they’d retain a chance of qualifying even if they lose in North London, so long as PSV don’t beat Sevilla in Spain. Of course, the Gunners are favourites to win among the tournament’s best betting sites, but which team do I think will triumph at the Emirates Stadium?
🏆 Arsenal v RC Lens UCL Prediction
The clash between Arsenal and Lens in gameweek two was the fifth between the two sides in UEFA competition and third in the Champions League, with the Gunners having now drawn one and lost two matches against their Ligue 1 opponents in the UCL. In fact, their only wins against Lens came in the 1999/00 UEFA Cup, as Arsenal triumphed 1-0 and Highbury and 2-1 a couple of weeks later at the Stade Felix-Bollaert.
Notwithstanding this and the Gunners’ surprise 2-1 defeat in northern France on October 3rd, Mikel Arteta’s men have performed much better than Lens in this season’s Champions League, especially from an offensive perspective. For example, they’ve averaged 57.3% possession across their four games so far (compared to 44.5% for Lens), while their xG value of 7.2 is considerably higher than their opponents (4.3).
Of course, Arsenal will be without one of their leading attackers in the form of Gabriel Jesus, who has scored three goals from an xG value of 1.9 but is set to miss out with a hamstring strain. However, winger Bukayo Saka looks to be hitting top form in the competition, with two goals to his name so far and an average of 6.11 shot-creating actions per 90.
Overall, the Gunners should have too much attacking quality and depth for Lens, while it’s important to note that Arsenal are unbeaten in nine home matches this season (they’ve won seven of these games). So, I’m backing them to record a comfortable win here at secure top spot in Group B.
My Prediction: 🏆 Arsenal 3 – 0 RC Lens ⚽
💯 Arsenal v RC Lens UCL Match Odds
You can place a number of different wager types when betting on the Arsenal vs Lens game, including the match winner or outcome, BTTS and the over/under on how many goals will be scored in the contest. Below, I’ll take a closer look at these markets and their very latest odds.
🏅 Arsenal v RC Lens: Match Winner
As I have already touched on, Arsenal are the early, odds-on favourites to beat Lens in gameweek five. Conversely, Lens can be backed at an average price of 9.00, which implies just an 11.11% probability of the Ligue 1 outfit prevailing at the Emirates.
| Team | .png?v=1752870120) |  |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal to Win | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.28 | 1.25 | 1.33 |
| RC Lens to Win | 9.00 | 8.00 | 8.80 | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| Draw | 5.00 | 5.25 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.25 |
⚽ Arsenal v RC Lens: Both Teams To Score
Both teams have scored in 10 of the Gunners’ 19 matches this season, with Arsenal keeping an impressive eight clean sheets and finding the back of the net in all but one of their games (a 1-0 defeat at Newcastle on November 4th). Both teams have scored in exactly half of Lens’ 16 games in 2023/24, although the Ligue 1 outfit have failed to register in five matches across all competitions.
| Yes/No | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.87 | 1.95 | 1.93 | 1.90 | 1.91 |
| No | 1.83 | 1.83 | 1.78 | 1.85 | 1.80 |
🥅 Arsenal v RC Lens: Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Most over/under wagering action is likely to focused around the 2.5 goals betting line, with the 35 matches contested by these two teams in all competitions producing 89 goals at a rate of 2.54 per game. Generally speaking, the odds imply a higher probability of over 2.5 goals being scored in the game, which makes sense given the Gunners strength and potency at the Emirates.
| Under/Over | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 1.55 | 1.55 | 1.53 | 1.57 | 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.32 | 2.38 | 2.25 |
✔️ Arsenal v RC Lens - Betting Tips
When wagering on the outcome of this game, matched betting wouldn’t necessarily be an appropriate strategy due to the implied probability and likelihood of an Arsenal win. However, I’ve prepared some alternative betting tips and strategies to help make the most of your bankroll and any free bets at your disposal.
- Tip 1: Back Arsenal to Win and Both Sides Not to Score: There isn’t a great deal of value to be found in backing Arsenal to beat Lens outright, but combination betting does enable you to wager on this outcome and both sides not to score at a price of 2.20 with Dachbet Sports. Remember, Arsenal have only conceded three goals in their previous six home games, while Lens have drawn blanks in five matches in all competitions so far.
- Tip 2: Back Arsenal to Win With a Handicap of -1.75 Goals: With all of the sportsbooks recommended in Betinireland’s bookmaker reviews making Arsenal short price favourites to defeat Lens, you may also want to create further value through handicapping. If, like me, you expect the Gunners to dominate Lens and win comfortably, you can bet on them to triumph with a handicap of -1.75 goals at a price of 2.05 with LegendPlay Sports.
- Tip 3: Back Arsenal to Win By 3 Goals: If you do have a free bet on your account and you’d like to use this to pursue higher potential returns, you could wager on the winning margin in the match. I certainly think there’s value in backing the Gunners to win by three goals at the competitive price of 5.50 with Dachbet Sports, although this is a much higher risk market that requires careful consideration.
1️⃣ Arsenal Update
Arsenal have won 12 and lost three of their 19 matches in all competitions this season, with this equating to a win-rate of 63.16%. Interestingly, each of the team’s three defeats have come away from the Emirates, where Arsenal have won seven and drawn two of their nine encounters while scoring 24 goals at a rate of 3.42 per game. Star forward Bukayo Saka is also in exceptional form both at home and abroad, with the winger having contributed six goals and eight assists in 17 matches through 2023/24 and scored in both UCL home games so far.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Arsenal 3 Burnley 1 | 11.11.23 Premier League |
| Arsenal 2 Sevilla 0 | 08.11.23 Champions League |
| Newcastle 1 Arsenal 0 | 04.11.23 Premier League |
| West Ham 3 Arsenal 1 | 01.11.23 EFL Cup |
| Arsenal 5 Sheffield United 0 | 28.10.23 Premier League |
As I’ve already touched on, Brazilian striker Gabriel Jesus will miss the match against Lens with a hamstring injury. The game may also come too soon for skipper and attacking midfielder Martin Ødegaard, as he continues to struggle with a hip problem. Emile Smith-Rowe is also laid low with a knee injury, while Jurrien Timber (cruciate ligament tear) and Thomas Partey (hamstring) remain long-term absentees.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Gabriel Jesus | Hamstring Injury |
| Martin Ødegaard | Hip Injury |
| Emile Smith-Rowe | Knee Injury |
| Jurrien Timber | Cruciate Ligament Tear |
| Thomas Partey | Hamstring Injury |
2️⃣ RC Lens Update
Despite a torrid start to the 2023/24 season that saw Lens lose four of their first five Ligue 1 matches, they’ve been defeated just once in 11 outings since September 16th and risen from 18th to sixth in the league. This sequence also saw Lens go unbeaten in their first three UCL matches, before they slumped to a 1-0 loss against PSV at the Philips Stadion on November 8th. However, it’s fair to say that this improved run of form has been built largely on consistent home performances, as Lens are winless in their last three away matches and have only triumphed once on the road all season.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Lens 1 Marseille 0 | 12.11.23 Ligue 1 |
| PSV 1 Lens 0 | 08.11.23 Champions League |
| Lorient 0 Lens 0 | 04.11.23 Ligue 1 |
| Lens 4 Nantes 0 | 28.10.23 Ligue 1 |
| Lens 1 PSV 1 | 24.10.23 Champions League |
Lens could be boosted by the return of defensive midfielder Nampalys Mendy in time for their visit to North London, as he nears full fitness after suffering with a hamstring injury. However, left back Deiver Machado could miss out with a muscle injury he picked up during the international break, while young winger Óscar Cortés is absent with a shin complaint. Keeper Wuilker Fariñez and midfielder Jimmy Cabot (both cruciate ligament tear) remain long-term absentees for Lens.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Deiver Machado | Muscle injury |
| Óscar Cortés | Shin complaint |
| Wuilker Fariñez | Ligament tear |
| Jimmy Cabot | Ligament tear |
👕 Arsenal v RC Lens- Potential Lineups
| Pos. | Arsenal 4-3-3 | RC Lens 3-4-2-1 | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goalkeeper | D. Raya | B. Samba | Goalkeeper |
| Right Back | T. Tomiyasu | J. Gradit | Right Centre Back |
| Centre Back | W. Saliba | K. Danso | Centre Back |
| Centre Back | Gabriel | F. Medina | Left Centre Back |
| Left Back | O. Zinchenko | P. Frankowski | Right Wing Back |
| Midfielder | D. Rice | N. Mendy | Midfielder |
| Midfielder | Jorginho | S. Abdul Samed | Midfielder |
| Midfielder | K. Havertz | M. Haïdara | Left Wing Back |
| Wide Forward | B. Saka | F. Sotoca | Attacking Midfielder |
| Striker | L. Trossard | A. Thomasson | Attacking Midfielder |
| Wide Forward | G. Martinelli | E. Wahi | Striker |
✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster
Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.
