AC Milan v Paris Saint-Germain Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

🏆 AC Milan v Paris Saint-Germain UCL Prediction

PSG’s 3-0 win in October was their first over Milan in five matches, with their four previous h2h clashes producing two victories for the Rossoneri and successive 1-1 draws during the 2000/01 group stage. They’ll be looking to add to this at the San Siro as well, with Milan’s results and attacking output in the competition largely underwhelming so far.

However, Milan’s broader performances have been more impressive, with their tally of 50 shots the fifth highest in the tournament so far and having yielded an expected goals value of 4.1. Milan’s tally of 30.33 shot-creating actions per 90 is also the third highest in the 2023/24 UCL, so the side’s issue clearly lies in converting their chances in front of goal. However, they only mustered 11 attempts in Paris and had just 38% of the ball, as PSG showcased their superiority and forced Milan to play ineffectively on the break.

I see a similar pattern playing out in the return match, with Milan averaging just 45.0% possession in this seasons’ Champions League (compared to 67.0% for PSG). So, although I envisage Milan being more threatening in transition here and breaking their duck in terms of goals, I think PSG will win and take a huge stride towards the last 16.

💯 AC Milan v Paris Saint-Germain UCL Match Odds

Betinireland’s betting sites have clearly been influenced by Milan’s poor Champions League form and lack of goals, with the win market odds currently favouring PSG. But what other betting markets can you access here, and what do the latest prices tell us? You can find the odds below or click here to read our bookmaker reviews. Should you want more information on the best betting sites please feel free to explore our comprehensive guide for in-depth insights and recommendations.

AC Milan v Paris Saint-Germain: Match Winner

PSG are certainly the favourites to do the double over Milan at the San Siro, with the ante post odds implying a 45.45% chance of the Ligue 1 side emerging victorious. Milan’s own average price of 3.10 affords them a 32.25% chance of winning statistically speaking, so the market is a little more evenly matched than some may have expected.

Team
AC Milan to Win	3.10	3.10	3.00	3.00	3.10
PSG	2.20	2.25	2.18	2.15	2.30
Draw	3.40	3.40	3.45	3.50	3.40

⚽ AC Milan v Paris Saint-Germain: Both Teams To Score

Not only have Milan failed to score in five matches so far this season, but three of these blanks have been drawn in their last four games since the last international break. Conversely, PSG have only drawn two blanks in 14 matches across all competitions through 2023/24, while scoring in six consecutive games and registering 16 goals during this sequence.

Yes/No
Yes	1.57	1.65	1.57	1.67	1.57
No	2.30	2.20	2.26	2.30	2.25

AC Milan v Paris Saint-Germain: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Milan are undoubtedly struggling for goals this season, with their tally of 18 in 14 matches scored at a rate of just 1.28 per game. However, the combined 28 matches contested by these sides through 2023/24 have produced 78 goals in total at a rate of 2.78 per game, so the odds imply a slightly higher probability of over 2.5 goals being scored in this game.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals	1.70	1.75	1.69	1.73	1.73
Under 2.5 Goals	2.05	2.05	2.03	2.00	2.00

1️⃣ Milan Update

Milan’s form has definitely tailed off since the recent international break, as in addition to scoring just two goals in their four last four matches, they’ve also gone winless during this period and lost three games to Juventus, Udinese and (of course) PSG. Both Serie A defeats came at the San Siro too, where Milan have only scored seven times in six outings in all competitions. This run has come amid a slew of injuries to key players, although one or two absentees could be poised to return ahead of the visit of PSG (you can read more on this below). Stefano Pioli’s side will also draw solace from his players’ ability to create chances in this season’s UCL, with their xG and SCA statistics incredibly healthy.

Both Christian Pulisic (thigh) and Simon Kjaer (muscle fatigue) are expected to return for the visit of PSG, while Theo Hernandez should also be fit after picking up a bruise on his ankle ahead of the defeat against Udinese. However, Ismael Bennacer remains absent until December after knee surgery, while Pierre Kalulu (tendon problems), Mattia Caldara (ankle) and Marco Pellegrino (sprain) are also longer-term absentees. Winger Samuel Chukwueze is finally nearing a return after injuring his hamstring, but this match may have come too soon for the former Villareal man.

2️⃣ PSG Update

Since a 3-2 home defeat to Nice on September 15th, PSG have only lost of their nine matches across all competitions, although this defeat did come on their Champions League travels in the form of a 4-1 thrashing at Newcastle. Luis Enrique’s men were overpowered in the Northeast, while Milan will probably look to adopt a similarly reactive approach and play primarily on the counterattack at the San Siro. Still, there are signs that Enrique’s philosophy is beginning to take hold, with PSG’s average share of possession in the UCL second only to Manchester City and the Ligue 1 side increasingly able to control matches home and away.

PSG’s squad is in exactly the same condition as it was for the reverse fixture, with Nuno Mendes (torn hamstring), Presnel Kimpembe (Achilles tendon rupture) and Marco Asensio all remaining unavailable for selection. Of course, backup goalkeeper Sergio Rico is also absent as he continues his recovery from the significant head injury he received during a horse-riding fall.

👕 AC Milan vs Paris Saint-Germain - Potential Lineups

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of different sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.