AC Milan v Borussia Dortmund Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

🏆 AC Milan v Borussia Dortmund UCL Prediction

Milan and Dortmund have now met seven times in official UEFA competition, including the 0-0 draw at Signal Iduna Park in gameweek two. Overall, Milan have won three of these games and been beaten twice, while the teams also shared a 1-1 draw in the first leg of the 1957/58 European Cup quarterfinal.

Neither side has been particularly convincing in this season’s Champions League, although Dortmund dominated both encounters with Newcastle in gameweeks three and four. As for Milan, they drew blanks in their opening three Group F games, before goals from Rafael Leão and the timeless Olivier Giroud earned the Rossoneri a 2-1 win over PSG last time out.

However, Milan’s poor goalscoring return has more to do with inadequate finishing than a lack of creativity, with the team producing 30.50 shot-creating actions per 90 (the fifth highest tally in the competition) and an xG value of 5.6. Milan are even averaging 16.50 shots per 90 minutes in this season’s UCL, but their goals-to-shot ratio of 0.03 is only superior to Benfica (0.02) in the competition.

Interestingly, Dortmund have also scored just three times in the UCL (all against Newcastle in Group F), while underperforming their xG by -1.8. Neither side is in particularly good form either, but I’m tipping Milan to edge a tight and relatively low scoring encounter in front of their own fans.

💯 AC Milan v Borussia Dortmund UCL Match Odds

You’ll find a huge range of betting markets available when you wager on AC Milan vs Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League, including the match winner, BTTS and the over/under on total goals scored in the game. I’ll explore these markets below while appraising the very latest odds.

🏅 AC Milan v Borussia Dortmund: Match Winner

Across all sportsbooks featured in Betinireland’s bookmaker reviews have made AC Milan the favourites to beat Dortmund, with their average price of 2.00 implying a 50% probability of the Rossoneri achieving this objective.

Team
AC Milan to Win	1.87	1.95	1.94	1.91	2.00
Borussia Dortmund to Win	4.00	3.50	3.60	3.60	3.90
Draw	3.40	3.50	3.50	3.50	3.40

⚽ AC Milan v Borussia Dortmund: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have scored in just seven of the 16 games contested by AC Milan this season (43.75%), with the Rossoneri keeping six clean sheets and drawing blanks in five matches. As for Dortmund, both sides have scored in just 47.05% of their matches (eight out of 17), while the team has kept a total of seven clean sheets and failed to score on just three occasions.

Yes/No
Yes	1.67	1.75	1.67	1.70	1.67
No	2.10	2.05	2.07	2.05	2.10

🥅 AC Milan v Borussia Dortmund: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

AC Milan and Borussia Dortmund have contested 34 matches between them in all competitions this season, with these encounters yielding a total of 91 goals at a rate of 2.67 per game. Because of this, the bookies are split on whether there will be over or under 2.5 goals scored in the game, with some even offering the same odds on both potential outcomes.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals	1.80	1.80	1.80	1.83	1.83
Under 2.5 Goals	1.91	1.91	1.89	1.91	1.83

1️⃣ AC Milan Update

Milan’s nervy 2-1 win over PSG in UCL gameweek four was against the odds, especially as it remains their sole victory in six outings since October 7th. It also snapped a two-game losing sequence at home, while highlighting the team’s ability to counterattack and utilise Rafael Leão’s devastating pace in transition. So, although Milan have scored just 22 goals in 16 matches this season at a rate of 1.37 per game, they’re likely to threaten against a Dortmund team that likes to control possession and will leave space to exploit in behind.

While the aforementioned Rafael Leão sustained a hamstring strain in the 2-2 draw with Lecce, he’s widely expected to be fit for the visit of Dortmund to the San Siro. The same can be said of fellow forward Christian Pulisic, who has suffered a contracture but is expected to return to training next week. Right back Davide Calabria may also be available after recovering from a stress reaction of the bone, but Ismaël Bennacer (knee), Pierre Kalulu (patellar tendon), Mattia Caldara and Marco Pellegrino (both ankle) have all been ruled out. Keeper Marco Sportiello is out with a muscle injury too.

2️⃣ Borussia Dortmund Update

Although Dortmund have recorded back-to-back UCL wins against Newcastle that have fired them to the top of Group F, they remain winless in their last three Bundesliga matches and have shipped 10 goals during this sequence. They’ve only scored three Champions League goals all season too, with these all coming against Newcastle after the side drew consecutive blanks against PSG (0-2) and Milan (0-0). They’re certainly struggling for a consistent goalscorer this term, as while striker Niclas Füllkrug continues to lead the line tenaciously, he has scored just four goals in 13 appearances in 2023/24 so far.

Dortmund have been rocked by an injury to first-choice keeper Gregor Kobel, who withdrew from the Swiss international squad with a muscle problem. He joins Emre Can (bruise) and centre back Antonios Papadopoulos (unknown injury) on the squad’s list of absentees, while Felix Nmecha also remains a doubt with a hip complaint. Mateu Morey (knee) and Julien Duranville (muscle) are expected to miss the trip to Milan as well.

👕 AC Milan vs Borussia Dortmund- Potential Lineups

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.