Man United vs Man City Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips
| Timetable | Sunday 29th October at 15:30 GMT |
| Prediction | Man City To Win! |
| Odds | Man City to Win @1.68 |
| Bookmaker | Lunubet Sports |
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While Manchester United may have now won three games in a row in all competitions, the team remains woefully short of fluency and any kind of cohesive form. In fact, they were lucky to beat FC Copenhagen in their Champions League game in midweek, with Andre Onana saving a stoppage time penalty after Harry Maguire had headed United into an undeserved lead. City will provide stiff opposition in the Premier League at the weekend too, despite a recent run of three defeats in five games and the continued absence of key creative lynchpin Kevin De Bruyne. In this EPL football betting guide, I’ll take a look at the latest derby day betting odds, while offering my own prediction about which side I think will win at Old Trafford!
🏆 Man United vs Man City
While United hold an historical head-to-head advantage over their city rivals, it’s City that have dominated in more recent times. In fact, their 2-1 loss at Old Trafford in January was only their second derby defeat in all competitions since March 2020, while they’ve only lost twice at the Theatre of Dreams in eight visits since October 2016.
This season, both sides have struggled with injuries and relatively inconsistent form, with City’s usually slick and irresistible attacking play stifled by the loss of De Bruyne through injury. However, Pep Guardiola’s men have still averaged a league-high of 63.3% possession so far in 2023/24, while their tally of 29.00 shot-creating actions per 90 minutes is only bettered by Tottenham and Liverpool. Although United have averaged less possession overall (54.8%), they’ve produced 28.67 shot-creating actions per 90, while the team has tended to adopt a more direct attacking approach and completed 378 ‘long’ passes over 30 yards or more so far this season.
As a result, however, United have only completed 82.1% of their passes and struggled to both maintain possession and sustain attacks this term, and this wastefulness could prove fatal against a City side that recently welcomed Rodri and John Stones back from injury. Ultimately, I’m backing to City to edge a competitive and potentially tense match, although I expect both sides to score at Old Trafford.
My Prediction: 🏆 Manchester United 1 -2 Manchester City ⚽
💯 Man United vs Man City UCL Match Odds
Unsurprisingly, the ante post odds tend to favour Manchester City, across a broad range of betting markets too. Below, I’ve taken a closer look at the most popular match betting markets, while comparing the odds and seeing precisely what they imply in terms of probability and potential outcomes.
🏅 Man United vs Man City: Match Winner
Man City will kick off at Trafford as favourites and with an average price of 1.70, which implies a 58.82% probability that Guardiola’s side will win. Conversely, United’s average odds of 4.75 imply just a 21.05% probability of a home win, so it’s clear to see which team the bookies are backing!
| Team |  |  |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United to Win | 4.75 | 4.75 | 4.60 | 4.50 | 4.50 |
| Manchester City to Win | 1.67 | 1.67 | 1.63 | 1.70 | 1.67 |
| Draw | 3.80 | 4.00 | 3.85 | 8.90 | 3.80 |
⚽ Man United vs Man City: Both Teams To Score
While City may be the clear favourites to win here, the bookies also expect both teams to score at Old Trafford. This has been the case in the last four meetings between the two sides since November 2021, although the previous six such matches in all competitions saw either United or City to win to nil. Here are the latest BTTS odds.
| Yes/No | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.67 | 1.70 | 1.60 | 1.70 | 1.67 |
| No | 2.10 | 2.10 | 2.16 | 2.10 | 2.20 |
🥅 Man United vs Man City: Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Our recommended betting sites are also offering odds on the over/under for total goals scored in the game at Old Trafford. This is an intriguing market when betting around the 2.5 goals line, with the 27 matches contested by both United and City this season yielding 78 goals at a rate of 2.88 per game.
| Under/Over | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 1.67 | 1.73 | 1.62 | 1.70 | 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 2.05 | 2.05 | 2.11 | 2.20 | 2.10 |
✔️ Man United vs Man City - Betting Tips
Regardless of which betting market or wager type appeals to you, the sheer number of variables that determine the outcome of EPL games makes it hard to wager authoritatively. So, I’ve prepared some Man United vs Man City betting tips to help you make the best possible selections.
- Tip 1: Manchester City to Win: Despite City’s status as strong ante post favourites to beat their neighbours, I still think there’s value in backing them to win outright at Old Trafford, especially at a price of 1.70 with TonyBet Sports. Certainly, neither side is anywhere near their best ahead of the game, but the combination of United’s selection issues in defence and City’s penchant for dominating possession could ultimately prove decisive.
- Tip 2: Back Both Teams to Score (BTTS): TonyBet are also offering odds of 1.70 on both teams to score at Old Trafford, which is competitive when you consider each side’s respective records in front of goal this season. More specifically, City have only failed to score in two of their 14 competitive games this season, while their rivals have also drawn a paltry two blanks in their 13 matches. So, although these games are typically tight and tense affairs, I think there’s value in backing both teams to score at OT.
- Tip 3: Back City to Win With Under 3.5 Goals Scored: If you want to place a higher priced wager in order to qualify for a particular free bet offer, you could also consider backing the Citizens to win with under 3.5 goals scored in the game. This combination bet unlocks the extended price of 2.60 with TonyBet, while wagering around the 3.5 goals betting line creates additional value in the market.
1️⃣ Man United Update
United’s dramatic (albeit unconvincing) 1-0 win over FC Copenhagen saw the Red Devils earn three consecutive games for the first time this season, as they followed up similarly narrow victories against Brentford and Sheffield United (both 2-1) in front of a nervous Old Trafford. However, this has only papered over the widening cracks in a United side that continues to struggle for any kind of fluency or consistent selection. Injuries and a lack of balance in midfield remain key issues for manager Erik ten Hag, and while United have completed an EPL high of 517 ball recoveries this season, this reflects their inability to keep the ball or sustain attacks.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Man United 1 Copenhagen 0 | 24.10.23 Champions League |
| Sheffield United 1 Man United2 | 21.10.23 Premier League |
| Man United 2 Brentford 1 | 07.10.23 Premier League |
| Man United 2 Galatasaray 3 | 03.10.23 Champions League |
| Man United0 Crystal Palace 1 | 30.09.23 Premier League |
The return of Raphael Varane and Sergio Reguilón from injury boosted United in midweek, but they remain desperately short of defensive reinforcements. For example, Lisandro Martinez (foot injury), Luke Shaw (muscle), Tyrell Malacia (unknown) are all long-term absentees, while Aaron Wan-Bissaka continues to recover from a hamstring strain. The game has also come too soon for central midfielder Kobbie Mainoo (ankle) and winger Amad Diallo (knee), although United will hope to have midfield pivot Casemiro back from injury.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Lisandro Martinez | Foot Injury |
| Luke Shaw | Muscle Injury |
| Aaron Wan-Bissaka | Hamstring Injury |
| Tyrell Malacia | Unknown Injury |
| Kobbie Mainoo | Ankle Injury |
| Amad Diallo | Knee Injury |
2️⃣ Man City Update
While Man City have already won silverware this season in the form of the UEFA Super Cup (after last year’s astonishing treble), their recent poor run of form has also come amid a surfeit of injuries and suspensions. To this end, the side have lost three of their previous five matches across all competitions, while they were unconvincing when beating Brighton with 10 men last time out. The good news for City is that Rodri and John Stones are now available after recent suspension and injury respectively, although the absence of Kevin De Bruyne continues to impact their creativity and ability to maximise their possession.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Man City 2 Brighton 1 | 21.10.23 Premier League |
| Arsenal 1 Man City 0 | 08.10.23 Premier League |
| RB Leipzig 1 Man City 3 | 04.10.23 Champions League |
| Wolves 2 Man City 1 | 30.09.23 Premier League |
| Newcastle 1 Man City 0 | 27.09.23 EFL Cup |
While Rodri is now back in the fold and John Stones has continued his recovery from a hip injury, the influential Kevin De Bruyne remains sidelined with a partial muscle tear. Reserve keeper Zach Steffen is also unavailable after undergoing knee surgery.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Kevin De Bruyne | Partial Muscle Tear |
| Zach Steffen | Knee Surgery |
👕 Man United vs Man City - Potential Lineups
| Pos. | Man United 4-2-3-1 | Man City 4-3-3 | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goalkeeper | A. Onana | Ederson | Goalkeeper |
| Right Back | D. Dalot | K. Walker | Right Back |
| Centre Back | R. Varane | J. Stones | Centre Back |
| Centre Back | H. Maguire | R. Dias | Centre Back |
| Left Back | V. Lindelof | J. Gvardiol | Left Back |
| Midfielder | S. Amrabat | Rodri | Midfielder |
| Midfielder | S. McTominay | B. Silva | Midfielder |
| Midfielder | C. Eriksen | J. Alvarez | Midfielder |
| Wide Forward | B. Fernandes | P. Foden | Wide Forward |
| Striker | R. Højlund | E. Haaland | Striker |
| Wide Forward | M. Rashford | J. Doku | Wide Forward |
✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster
Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.
Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of different sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.
